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SabreAce33

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Everything posted by SabreAce33

  1. SabreAce33
    4" would do nicely. I'll take what I can get with this winter. GFS looks like 4-5, NAM however went the other way for SBY, nothing.
  2. SabreAce33
    Eyeball Mk. I's believe we got about an inch and a half to finish it off, despite changing over around 1PM.
  3. SabreAce33
    Image sums it up for SBY. 30 miles would have made an enormous difference. Ultimately, GFS/NAM were correct and the Euro was not.
  4. SabreAce33
    That sums it up...
  5. SabreAce33
    Mostly rain, touch of sleet as of 30 mins ago. Only 4.5 or so on the ground. Off to bed.
  6. SabreAce33
    Lucky you! Temp rising here. EDIT: First big gust out of the ENE just now, would explain the rising temps.
  7. SabreAce33
    We picked up a fast inch, then flake size decreased along with rates. A bit more modest now.
  8. SabreAce33
    Right, I was considering the wind too, but you're right, Wakefield is always so conservative.
  9. SabreAce33
    Ah hah, here:
  10. SabreAce33
    Where did you see this? Neither the WSW or my point forecasts reflect that. Also, would that not put us in Blizzard Warning territory?
  11. SabreAce33
    Euro says 14" of snow for SBY according to Bob Chill. Two camps. Not sure what the temp biases are. EDIT: Euro is usually a little warm. Let that be the case and SBY could be sitting on a foot plus. Wonder how much the rain will knock down.
  12. SabreAce33
    Correction: Looks like 9" on the GFS, low-res map fail.
  13. SabreAce33
    Did it? I never saw the maps for the Euro. A 30-50 mile shift is not at all unusual with a big dynamic system like this. 12Z GFS came in cold, looking like 10-12 for SBY from the low-res clown map.
  14. SabreAce33
    What a nasty mess it's going to be. If we have 4-6 inches of wet snow saturating with rain at the time of peak winds, it's going to be a bad time.
  15. SabreAce33
    Unless the Euro wins out, I think we're stuck with a nasty mixed bag here in SBY at least.
  16. SabreAce33
    My best guess is 3-6 followed by a period of rain, followed by another 3-6 at the end. Total snow on the ground at the end, maybe five inches? That's entirely unscientific and based on my own hunch.
  17. SabreAce33
    Let us not troll until we have something verifiable to troll about.
  18. SabreAce33
    Poor snowdude! Two camps it seems. GFS gives a couple of inches and a lot of rain, Euro gives us a bunch of snow with some mixing and rain, but not a ton.
  19. SabreAce33
    Looks great in SOMD!
  20. SabreAce33
    NAM came in west over the last two runs and shows us dry slotted at times, reducing our totals to ~4 inches. Yeah, it's the NAM,but it's in its wheelhouse now. Curious to see if GFS does the same.
  21. SabreAce33
    About the same here in SBY. Schools closed. Maybe they looked at DC's mess last night...
  22. SabreAce33
    Tough forecast for you over the next 24 hours. Models still call for ~10 inches in SBY, but when does that fall? How much gets knocked down by the rain? How much comes on the back end? Etc., etc., etc. There's a reason NWS is so slow to decide on how to handle us a lot of the time.
  23. SabreAce33
    I think it's related to the quantity of warm air we're talking about. The low is simply too far inshore for us. But I like that you're keeping the dream alive! Remember, we only need 30 miles.
  24. SabreAce33
    I believe warm air aloft is a concern with the easterly flow we're expecting.
  25. SabreAce33
    This will be our problem. I would expect a good thump up front, brief mix, extended rain, brief mix, then snow again at the backend. I would imagine the only accumulation will be a base layer of slush and then whatever comes at the end.
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