SabreAce33

Some models (RAP I think) were moving the bulls-eye west (bay to SOMD).

AKQ pulls the trigger (surprised, they're usually so conservative): URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 318 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 MDZ021>025-050430- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0003.160205T0500Z-160205T1800Z/ DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD... PRINCESS ANNE...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY 318 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE * HAZARDS: RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WET SNOW WILL END AROUND NOON FRIDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 3 INCHES....HIGHEST OVER DORCHESTER AND WICOMICO COUNTIES. * TEMPERATURES: FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S. * WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT THE COAST. * IMPACTS: ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO THE WET SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $ 44

Sadly Euro has not been a great performer for us of late, overdoing snow by quite a bit pretty consistently. Really think 1-3 is more appropriate.

The NAM and the 4km both like 8+, but more importantly, GFS likes ~5. Tend to agree with Snowdude about temps though. This feels like a slushy couple of inches.

4" would do nicely. I'll take what I can get with this winter. GFS looks like 4-5, NAM however went the other way for SBY, nothing.

Eyeball Mk. I's believe we got about an inch and a half to finish it off, despite changing over around 1PM.

Image sums it up for SBY. 30 miles would have made an enormous difference. Ultimately, GFS/NAM were correct and the Euro was not.

That sums it up...

Mostly rain, touch of sleet as of 30 mins ago. Only 4.5 or so on the ground. Off to bed.

Lucky you! Temp rising here. EDIT: First big gust out of the ENE just now, would explain the rising temps.

We picked up a fast inch, then flake size decreased along with rates. A bit more modest now.

Right, I was considering the wind too, but you're right, Wakefield is always so conservative.

Ah hah, here:

Where did you see this? Neither the WSW or my point forecasts reflect that. Also, would that not put us in Blizzard Warning territory?

Euro says 14" of snow for SBY according to Bob Chill. Two camps. Not sure what the temp biases are. EDIT: Euro is usually a little warm. Let that be the case and SBY could be sitting on a foot plus. Wonder how much the rain will knock down.

Correction: Looks like 9" on the GFS, low-res map fail.

Did it? I never saw the maps for the Euro. A 30-50 mile shift is not at all unusual with a big dynamic system like this. 12Z GFS came in cold, looking like 10-12 for SBY from the low-res clown map.

What a nasty mess it's going to be. If we have 4-6 inches of wet snow saturating with rain at the time of peak winds, it's going to be a bad time.

Unless the Euro wins out, I think we're stuck with a nasty mixed bag here in SBY at least.

My best guess is 3-6 followed by a period of rain, followed by another 3-6 at the end. Total snow on the ground at the end, maybe five inches? That's entirely unscientific and based on my own hunch.

Let us not troll until we have something verifiable to troll about.

Poor snowdude! Two camps it seems. GFS gives a couple of inches and a lot of rain, Euro gives us a bunch of snow with some mixing and rain, but not a ton.

Looks great in SOMD!

NAM came in west over the last two runs and shows us dry slotted at times, reducing our totals to ~4 inches. Yeah, it's the NAM,but it's in its wheelhouse now. Curious to see if GFS does the same.

About the same here in SBY. Schools closed. Maybe they looked at DC's mess last night...