WintryMixmaster

I kind of feel the same way but that's probably due to cynicism more than any real intuition about the pattern, just being used to stronger storms always trending north. We haven't had an ice storm in my 4 winters in Knoxville (minus a minor ZR event in Jan 2024) and it would be nice to keep it that way

I remember growing up in New Jersey that the "cold/dry alternating with just warm enough to rain/wet" pattern was the absolute worst, but I'm surprised how often its happened here this winter (and a bit of last winter too). 40-50 degree rain isn't unexpected but the fact that we've had a lot of cold weather - just not synced up with storms - is really frustrating

I really thought the models were going to bust high on temperatures today given how the low last night was colder than expected, but the southwest wind really brought in the warm air and Knoxville is actually warmer than the models said it would be. Funny how the NAM is always right when it comes to any kind of warm nose but if it's the cold outlier, it's gonna be wrong

Satellite shows clearing skies to our west unfortunately, hopefully we can hold in as much cold air as we can ahead of the southwest winds. The temperature has been steadily climbing at my house, up to 28.6 degrees now

I noticed that too. It's 20 degrees at my house and even colder in some other areas nearby, the colder models for Friday night are much closer to the current observed temperatures in the area (NAM, WRF-NSSL, WRF,ARW) compared to the rainier ones (WRF-FV3, RRFS, HRRR), which have Knoxville above 24 degrees at 10-11 PM. I might be grasping at straws but like I said, I'll take any and all false or real hope I can find haha

It looks like the WRF-NSSL has a similar solution to the NAM, WRF-ARW missed Knox but gets some light accumulating snow into NE TN. And then the WRF-FV3 says nope, rain for basically everyone. It would take some of the string out of having snow likely miss to our south Sunday if some part of our area can get accumulating snow on Friday night, at least maybe the Plateau or northeast valley

The NAM 3k sure is persistent showing that 1-2" for I-40 north in the valley Friday night. Reminds me of that scene with Fry and the fortune teller from Futurama: "look do you want false hope or not?" "only if you don't have any real hope!"

Why is it that the NAM is so much colder than the other models for Friday night? It makes sense that the Great Lakes low would fail to provide east TN with enough cold air for snow, but that feature seems to be in a similar position with a similar strength on the NAM and RRFS/RGEM. Is the NAM just wrong? Does the NAM think heavier precipitation rates are dropping surface temperatures enough for snow for I-40 and north? Does the NAM just have the shortwave digging slightly more? Like Holston_River_Rambler mentioned earlier, I feel like the NAM (especially the high res NAM) seems to be the best at picking up TN valley warm noses, it's strange how it's the cold outlier here.

Driving home from Halls Crossroads this evening there was a solid snow shower in the area from I-640/40 through West Hills/Bearden area on 40, but here towards Concord/Farragut just a few passing snowflakes. 39.5 degrees in my backyard. I wasn't in town for the first flurries back in November, so this is my first snow observation as a member of the forum!

That is a good point, I forget how different the weather can be between downtown Knoxville and TYS (January 2024 had a sharp cutoff for accumulations right by the airport too). My first 3 winters here were spent in Hardin Valley and I remember being jealous of the Powell/Fountain City area posters that often had just a bit more elevation and were a bit further northeast. Last winter was my first winter in the Concord/Northshore town center area and I'm dreading the inevitable storm where Hardin Valley gets snow and I see nothing

Well hopefully I'm good luck for Knoxville- I remember that March 2022 snowstorm and being a bit sad thinking I might never see that kind of storm again here... and then January 2024 came around haha. I did notice that the tri-cities seemed to get the short end of the stick these past few winters despite averaging more snow than Knoxville, it's really interesting how the shape of the valley influences which storm types are better/worse for which areas, despite how geographically close TRI/TYS/CHA all are. Blount/Sevier counties got warm nosed in January 2024, but they also get some solid accumulation during NW flow events while in West Knox I've usually seen flurries or a dusting at best from those. Chattanooga seems like a snow lovers nightmare where anything that can go wrong will go wrong, I was glad they finally got to cash in last January. I remember the post you're referencing about the natural spillway for cold air into the valley and it makes sense that it would work in favor of the Knox area. This might be a dumb question, but do you think that there's a correlation between the very strong pacific jet stream that we've seen in recent winters and the shift in snow between the tri-cities and Knoxville? As a novice, it seems like Nor'Easters and Apps runners/Great Lake cutters are less common than I remember from the 2002-2010 period when I followed the weather more closely - but sliders that move west to east and weaker storms that ride along a frontal boundary are more common, and Knoxville has cashed in when one of them is timed correctly with a shot of cold air that briefly buckles the flow. Would the ideal storm track for TRI be something that is more south to north, so that a strengthening storm east of the valley would bring winds from the north?

Hi everyone! I've lived in Knoxville for the past 4 years and I've read this board during every snowstorm - growing up, I got into weather watching Nor'Easters hit (and sometimes miss) my backyard, slowly learning more about the model strengths and weaknesses and making forecasts for myself. I had forgotten much of my weather knowledge from back in the day but I always appreciated the insights and passion from everyone on this forum as I've revived my own passion for weather. I've learned a lot about what ingredients we need here to get snow here, and how much harder it is to thread that needle than I'm used to! For those of you who have lived in East Tennessee for much longer than I have, I'm curious about what you consider to be the "average" snowfall for Knoxville. I think I've seen it brought up that some of the very old TYS data has some missing/inaccurate totals, but online I've seen both 4.6 and 6.0 inches reported as the average. Do those seem about right? Sorry if this is a bit off-topic, I think it just gives me some useful perspective for the winter speculation.