09-10 analogy

AFD from early Friday morning (apologies if it's been posted already): AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 251 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... -- Changed Discussion --KUDOS TO THE MDLS WHICH HV BEEN PREDICTING A MAJOR MID ATLC STORM FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 5 DAYS. ALSO KUDOS TO PRVS SHIFTS WHO DID ALL THE HVY LIFTING W/ REGARD TO THE UPCOMING STORM...OUR ROLE TNGT HAS BEEN MINOR TOUCH UPS. WRNGS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...AND RMN UNCHGD. WE DID UP THE SNOW TOTALS SLTLY AT HIGHER ELEVS... WHERE INXS OF 30" MAY OCCUR BTWN FRI MRNG AND LATE SAT. OTHER IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION WAS WHETHER TO UP THE COUNTIES AGAINST THE BAY TO BLZRD WRNG. AFTER CONFERENCE W/ PHL...WHO ALTHO ISSUED FOR DE (ON THE CST) BUT NOT FOR THEIR MD COUNTIES E OF THE BAY...WE`VE DECIDED TO HOLD. "NR BLZRD" WRDG WL RMN IN THE WRNG. THESE CONDS WOULDN`T HAPPEN B4 TNGT REGARDLESS...WHICH WL GIVE DAYSHIFT TIME TO EVALUATE FURTHER.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --TNGT..WHEN CSTL LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY E OF ORF...CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE TO XTRMLY POOR. TRAVEL SHOULD BE DISCOURAGED IN ALL BUT THE MOST XTRM CASES. W/ STRONG UVV`S OVRNGT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HR WL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA. LOW TEMPS M20S HIGHLANDS TO A30 ON THE CST.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --STRONG SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA...BRINGING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION. AS THE LOW PRESSURE DOES DEPART OUT TO SEA...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING COLDER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --CGIS/VSBYS WL BEGIN THE MRNG AOA VFR LVLS AT MAJOR AIRPORTS... DIMINISHING TO MVFR THIS MRNG AS LGT SNOW DVLPS...THEN IFR BY LATE AFTN...AND FINALLY VLIFR THRUT TNGT. IFR/SUBIFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOWFALL ALONG WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .MARINE... -- Changed Discussion --LGT WINDS THIS MRNG...INCRSG TO SCA VALUES IN THE LOWER BAY/PTMC THIS AFTN. AS LOW PRES INTENSIFIES E OF ORF TNGT TO GALE ON THE ENTIRE BAY AND LOWER PTMC TNGT...AND STRONG SCA ON THE UPPER PTMC. HVY SNOWFALL/BLSN WL REDUCE VSBY TO 1/4 MILE. ALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT AFTR LATE AFTN TDA. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA SATURDAY...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THIS LOW AND APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE MIDWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT SCA WIND GUSTS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLY IMPACTS THE WATERS TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... -- Changed Discussion --AT THE MOMENT TIDES ARE AT OR STLY ABV NRML..BUT NOTHING ALARMING. W/ STRONG NE FLOW XPCTD TO DVLP LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT THIS WL PREVENT WATER FM DRAINING AND CAUSE MINOR CSTL FLDG TNGT. LATER SHIFTS WL MONITOR.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... -- Changed Discussion --DC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ028-031-042-052>057-501-502. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ021-025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051. WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ050>053-503-504. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ054-055-501-502. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ535-536.-- End Changed Discussion -- && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BJL/RDH

AFD from Thursday afternoon (don't think it's been posted) 000 FXUS61 KLWX 042006 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 306 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN BY MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --DENSE OVERHEAD CIRRUS IS A SIGN OF THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRECURSOR TO WINTRY END TO THE WEEK ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC. TEMPS THIS AFTN HAVE RISEN INTO THE U30S AND L40S... ALLOWING FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT DROPPED VERY MUCH AND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MODIFY TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE M-U20S BUT ALSO KEEPING SFC TEMPS STEADY INTO THE MORNING HRS JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --MID-LVL CONFLUENCE ACRS NEW ENGLAND SHUD SUSTAIN LOW-LVL HIPRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR MID-ATLC RGN. COMPACT BUT STRONG SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS MS RVR VLY FRI...WITH DEEP MSTR SPREADING NEWD ON SWLY FLOW. SFC LOPRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS AL AND GA BFR EMERGING INTO THE ATLC NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. COASTAL LOPRES XPCD TO BOMB FRI NGT OVER COASTAL NC BFR DVLPG NNEWD TWD HAMPTON ROADS AREA OF VA. RESULT OF THIS MVMT WILL BE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENSUING STRONG NELY WINDS. HIGHEST WINDS XPCD FRI NGT THRU SAT WITH GUSTS APRCHG 30KT IN COASTAL ZONES. CONCERNING PCPN...SNOW XPCD TO FORM ACRS CNTRL FOOTHILLS...CNTRL SHENANDOAH VLY AND SRN PORTIONS OF POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY DAWN FRI. SNOW WILL SPREAD NEWD ACRS RMNDR OF FCST AREA THRU FRI MRNG. EARLY ONSET OF PCPN WILL LIMIT HEATING...AND MAXIMA FRI SHUD BE IN UPR 20S AND LWR 30S MOST AREAS. AS UPR WAVE AND COASTAL SYSTEM APRCH...PCPN WILL BCM MDT TO HEAVY BY LATE AFTN. SNOW TOTALS BY LATE FRI AFTN ARE XPCD TO BE IN 4-6 INCH RNG IN DC METRO AREA...UP TO ONE FOOT IN CNTRL SHENANDOAH VLY AND CNTRL FOOTHILLS. HEAVY SNOW XPCD AREAWIDE FRI NGT AS UPR SYSTEM MOVES ACRS. SFC LOW MOVES NEWD ON SAT...AND SNOW BANDS XPCD TO DVLP ACRS DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS IN DEFORMATION ZONE. ADDITIONAL MDT/HEAVY SNOW PSBL SAT MRNG BFR ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND SNOW INTENSITY WANES. WINTER STORM WRNG FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTS THRU SAT EVE. HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS SLGTLY FROM PREV ISSUANCE...BUT SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST. SOME VARIABILITY IN SNOW TOTALS FCST FOR SRN MD AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF VA WOULD BE PSBL IF SLEET DVLPS LATE FRI NGT AS WARM AIR BRIEFLY WRAPS INTO SYSTEM. ATTM HAVE RETAINED PRIMARILY SNOW FCST /WITH SNOW AND SLEET MIX INCLUDED IN GRIDS/... BUT A PROLONGED PD OF SLEET COULD REDUCE TOTALS IN THIS AREA.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MAIN FOCUS OF EXTENDED PDS IS A STRONG CLOSED UPR LOW THAT MOVES ACRS NRN CONUS TUE-WED AND DISLODGES ARCTIC ORIGIN AIR INTO OH VLY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROMOTE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA TUE...WITH UPSLP FLOW AND A SEQUENCE OF SHRTWV TROFS IN WAKE OF CLIPPER SYSTEM XPCD TO SUSTAIN SHSN FOR WRN SLOPES IN VERY COLD AIR.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. A RAPID CHANGE IN CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST FRI MRNG. AREAS IN N-CNTRL VA SUCH AS KCHO WILL SEE LIGHT-MOD SNOW MOVE IN CLOSER TO SUNRISE... AND ONLY A COUPLE OF HRS LATER IN THE DC AND BALT METRO AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY BY EARLY AFTN...AS HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND A HEAVY...WET SNOW DROP CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS XPCD TO PERSIST THRU SAT EVE AS LOPRES MOVES NEWD AND DEFORMATION ZONE DVLPS. PCPN ENDS QUICKLY SAT EVE...WITH IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS THRU MON.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .MARINE... -- Changed Discussion --WINDS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTN...SUB-SCA CRITERIA. A GRADUAL DECREASE WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING. SPEEDS WILL STAY LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACRS WATERS BY LATE FRI AFTN AS LOPRES DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF CAROLINA COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADZY THRESHOLD WINDS XPCD FOR SRN PORTIONS OF CHSPK BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC FRI AFTN. GALE WRNG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MD CHSPK BAY AND LWR TIDAL POTOMAC FRI NGT THRU SAT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADZY POSTED FOR RMNDR OF WATERS DURG THIS TIME. SMALL CRAFT ADZYS MAY BE NEEDED LATE NEXT WEEK AS A CDFNT WITH ARCTIC ORIGINS MOVES THRU MID-ATLC.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... -- Changed Discussion --DC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ028-031-042-052>057-501-502. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ021-025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051. WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ050>053-503-504. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ054-055-501-502. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ533- 534-537-541>543. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530-535-536.-- End Changed Discussion --