BuffaloWeather

Leelee is a she not a bro if I remember correctly. She was a regular poster back on don Pauls blog back in the 2000s.

Dumping on the ridge.

Great post from Tom niziol

Unless a foot of fresh powder $93 is way too much.

I'm not sure why its not developed. Its more developed west of Ellicottville vs east. There isn't much east besides maybe Utica. The west locations of Ellicottville are where the best snow is along the ridges. From Perrysburg to Boston to Springville and points just south. Case in point look at map below, all that purple is above 1k feet elevation, most above 1500.

Late this afternoon through Sunday a broad surface low stretching from Quebec to Maine will consolidate and drift east into the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. An area of deep wrap around moisture will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight and Sunday morning, while ongoing cold advection cools the column. Deep saturation and low level flow normal to the Chautauqua Ridge will produce a near ideal setup for strong upslope enhancement across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Forecast soundings show a deep 5-7K foot thick dendritic growth zone tonight through Sunday morning. The airmass will grow cold enough for lake enhancement as well from late tonight through Sunday. The same will occur east of Lake Ontario across the Tug Hill, although flow will veer more WNW by Sunday, with less favorable lake enhancement following the initial development tonight. Outside of the main upslope areas east of the lakes, expect periods of snow tonight through Sunday and possibly a few meandering bands of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay lake effect to produce minor accumulations. As far as accumulations go, the 00Z high-res guidance that handles smaller scale upslope better than global guidance, continued an upward trend, and this raises the chances of warning criteria being reached for the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Expect total accumulations in the 8-14" range along a narrow zone of the Chautauqua Ridge from Sherman to Perrysburg, and 7-12" across the Boston Hills and the ridges of western Wyoming County. There will be far less snow along the Lake Erie shore (including the Thruway), and steadily decreasing snow inland from the Chautauqua Ridge. East of Lake Ontario, expect 6-10" across the Tug Hill tonight through Sunday. The setup is not quite as favorable here, so we have opted for a higher end Advisory for the Tug Hill, although a small area of warning criteria snow is possible near the Oswego/Jefferson/Lewis County triple point. Outside of these two areas, expect accumulations of 2-4" tonight through Sunday in most areas. The one caveat, if a Lake Huron band were to stall over the Niagara Frontier or south of Lake Ontario higher amounts are possible.

I wouldn't be surprised to see 12"+ at Perrysburg easily. Perfect setup for them, lots of moisture, open lakes, and crazy deltas for this time of year. Going with a 15" total down there.

@TugHillMatt Springville

This airmass is extremely impressive. Going to be below freezing from this afternoon until Tuesday. -19 to -23 850s

Most likely elevation based event. Overnight tonight I think we pick up a few inches even here. But Boston Hills/Colden/Perrysburg likely get 8-12". I was thinking about going skiing tomorrow if they pick up 6-10".

Wow winter storm warnings for 8-14”

Watching ovechkin tonight. Sabres been on fire lately. Great game so far

High Res, a few have a band setting up across North Buffalo on NW flow

NAM RGEM

I've never been stuck with my little Mazda. All terrain tires with AWD gets the job done for me. No car payments for 3 yrs, only my cheap mortgage. The rest I save and spend on travel. Allows me freedom to stay in a relatively stress-free job.

Big fan of Toyota, Honda, Mazda, and Subaru.

Yeah I'm not a big car guy. As long as they run and no issues I try to keep them as long as possible. All cars are the same to me, point a to point b. I have zero interest in ever getting a Lambo. A bunch of my friends are really into cars, just doesn't do it for me.

I’ll be driving my 2008 Honda in 2035

RGEM went crazy across southern Erie, most likely confined to higher elevations, but its easily going to be cold enough for all snow in lower elevations.

v

Wow

57 at BUF

Almost every model has 4-8" across Erie County at 1:10

And cold air which is hard to find now adays.