BuffaloWeather

GEFS are cooler then normal from Dec 31st to end of run. Improvement.

This is basically our setup right now. But yes MJO is having a huge influence on our weather, as it did last year. Lots of convection. We have a very strong PV where Alaska has been brutally cold. This leads to the Pacific air dominating the lower 48. There are no mechanisms to bring the cold air to our region. The one good thing is the PV is on our side of the globe, not in Siberia/Russia.

No the indices are correct. You have to use all of them to get a good idea. We have a raging Pacific. The AO can be negative 6 standard dev. and still be torch. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

EPS are similar to GEFS in same timeframe.

GEFS look good. Don't need really cold temps in January. Get the cold air in Upstate and you're basically guarenteed snow.

lol

We need that PV to weaken. All the cold is bottled up there.

Canada is just on fire for the next 10 days. It shows it cooling down around Jan 6th.

GFS and GEM showing a decent 12-18 hour window of possible LES band Tues-Weds timeframe.

Yeah the farther south you go the more lake effect snow events you receive. It's pretty simple as the predominant winds in winter are NW and least common SSW. We probably average 1-2 more events a winter than those in the "transition" zone and 3-5 more events then those around the airport. But its rare for us to get hit on a NW flow here as its more common in NE Erie County. We need W-SW flow or we miss out here.

You were here for this one. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=G

I would put a few more events in west seneca almost hitting jackpot zone. Besides ski country they had biggest total for this event. These are just the larger ones that come to mind, they've been hit by quite a few small-mid size events. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=E Nearly top total for this one https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2017-2018&event=C Did good in this one https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2018-2019&event=E and this one https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2018-2019&event=G

Took this today along the Lake. Just perfect conditions for a walk. I take for granted how incredible it is living near a large body of water, the sunsets throughout the year are so beautiful.

Took this today along the Lake. Just perfect conditions for a walk. I take for granted how incredible it is living near a large body of water, the sunsets throughout the year are so beautiful.

+20 departures?

Merry Christmas all!

Merry Christmas all!

This is a long stretch of way above normal temps for late Dec. This Afternoon Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Christmas Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.

GEFS look much improved on noon runs.

Yeah definitely the next timeframe to watch, looks to warm after it with another cutter. The air isn't extremely cold but with lake temps in mid 40s anything below normal at this time of year will yield a good lake response. Did you click the link? https://imgur.com/hMDLT2Y

Yeah definitely some good looks. Got ENS?

You have to see the video I have of the iguana at the palm beach zoo down there. They are literally everywhere. https://imgur.com/hMDLT2Y

Looks like it snows quite a bit in Florida along the panhandle. I was talking to my uncle about it when I was just down there near Miami, he said the only time its snowed that far south is 1977. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida https://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/01/19/35-years-ago-today-snow-in-miami/

Way out there.

50 and sunny here. If it's not going to snow I'll take this every day. Going to go for a walk a long the water after work.