BuffaloWeather

Buffalo: Attention turns to the next system that will ride along the cold front near western and north central NY. Strong, southwest flow will supply abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture into the eastern third of the Lower 48. Ensemble forecast systems are showing signals of PWATS of +2 SD above normal Friday to Saturday. Guidance is similar in tracking the deepening low along the cold front from the Central Appalachians to Long Island. While this can keep us on the cold, snowy side, the 850mb low may be further to the northwest. This may bring enough warmer air aloft into the region causing a wintry mix Saturday to Saturday night. A dry, cold will likely move into the region behind this system with little lake response expected. Binghamton: The low pressure system passing by well to the north then drags a cold front into the region later Friday. This then becomes a stationary boundary...with a large temperature gradient developing. Significant model differences remain for the weekend...but guidance does agree on some points. The overall set up is there for strong moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This could lead to 1-2+ inches of QPF across the region. However, there will also be an arctic Canadian high pressure center north of Lake Superior and into Quebec. This will try to push low level cold air down into the region at the same time; along and north of the stationary boundary. Depending on the exact low track (west, right over us or southeast of here) will have huge implications for what types of weather we see this weekend. These exact details are yet to be resolved...but it`s beginning to look like parts of the area could see impacts...whether it`s from ice, snow, heavy rains (or a combination of the three) remains to be seen. Overall, with such a strong high pressure center north, one would expect the system to perhaps shift a little further south; bringing more of wintry mix to the area. Please be sure to check back as will continue to monitor and update forecasts for the weekend.

Insane amount of gulf moisture. Analogs show the signal too. It just started showing up, so will be interesting to see what next few days look like in modeling.

Picked up 3.1" last night. Decent little event.

Speak for yourself. Ice is rare give me the ice storm. Would probably get a week off of work paid in that setup. Were always losing power in wind storms.

Lock it in? Most of this is freezing rain/sleet, tidbits is so bad.

That run would be once in lifetime type stuff. Would paralyze entire states.

Uh.... 1-2" of freezing rain.

Maybe a little bit of lake enhancement there?

Yeah I just measured 2" and looks like a nice band about to move through. Went for a nice walk with the dog in it, felt great.

We're going to get 70" of snow in February.

I blame the play calling more then anything. Tannehill just beat the Patriots throwing for 77 yards. They ran the ball 34 times for 182 yards. Singletary was running all over them, and Houston has a bottom 5 run defense. Gore needs to be gone next year. Allen threw the ball 48 times! Watson for 25....What in the world was our team thinking? Throwing 3 bombs to the end zone in which none were necessary, allen tossing the ball back on his run with over a minute on the clock needing a FG at the mid field...Secondly I blame the refs for that 3rd and 18 play delay of game and the phantom block in the back 15 yard penalty that knocked us out of FG range. But Josh Allen threw for less then 50% completion, he isn't good yet. Has a long offseason ahead of him to improve his accuracy. That was the most frustrating game I've watched since the music city miracle in 1999. Going to take awhile to recover from that one.

I'll gladly trade a snowless 2 weeks for a Bills victory today.

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Jan 03 2020 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 18 2020-Fri Jan 31 2020 The global tropical convective pattern remains weak, with ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing, an incoherent MJO signal, and a decaying Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Therefore, little contribution from the tropics to the downstream midlatitude pattern during the Week 3-4 period is evident in the statistical guidance. Dynamical models almost uniformly favor renewed MJO activity, however, with the enhanced phase crossing the Maritime Continent over the next two weeks at a high amplitude on the RMM-based MJO index. The weakening IOD signal effecting a change in the base state may partly explain the forecasted high amplitude signal, but should a robust MJO event develop and propagate to the Pacific, it could help promote a substantial late winter pattern change over North America. These impacts would occur largely after the Week 3-4 period.

This is the primary driver right now with basically neutral Enso conditions.

I can see that but nothing until around the 20th at least. Similar to last year? We're going to have a 40 degree lake in late January. Looks like last year the pattern changed mid month around the 15th and we had that big storm Jan 19th/20th and the 2 big LES events in Late Jan.

Matched up pretty well with the top analog, snowing here but 34 degrees.

I think it's going to be double digits. Our overnight lows have been really warm. Our average low is supposed to be in the teens, we aren't seeing that for awhile.

I don't see any change for at least 2 weeks, probably more.

I mean it literally looks like this the entire run aside from the next few days.

A dusting that is already gone here. Overnight runs look terrible for the next 10 days. Going to need some serious reshuffling to get anything that resembles winter.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml I think that blue circle covers one town.

A friend of mine from the gym is in Willow Alaska right now. Says its high in the negative single digits lows in -20s.