BuffaloWeather

Crazy departures through first 6 days of November BUF: +14.3 ROC: +12.3 WAT: +14.2 SYR: +16.2 BING: +16.0

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wetter and eventually cooler times on the way as we close out the work week and head into next weekend. Still appears at least the first half of Friday will be dry, and possibly the entire day just depending on location of and speed at which the deeper tropical moisture associated with TS Nicole moves northward up the Atlantic Seaboard. The other player will be an area of low pressure that moves NE`ward through the upper Great Lakes and how its trailing cold front interacts with Nicole`s moisture. Timing of these features will be key as there will likely be a swath of heavy rain moving N`ward with this system. At this point, appears the best chance for any significant rain will be from central/eastern NY and points east Friday night into Saturday before strong cold front sweeps it off the New England coast. Now for the `cooler` portion of the forecast period. Much cooler air will start to work in across the area through the day on Saturday in the wake of the cold fropa and as a broad mid and upper level trough takes shape over the central and eastern CONUS. Cold air will continue to deepen through the second half of the weekend which will lead to the development of lake effect rain showers as early as Saturday afternoon, with the airmass growing cold enough to support frozen precipitation all the way to the surface by Saturday night. Big picture...lake effect rain and snow showers look like a pretty good bet downwind of the lakes for Saturday night into Sunday, although way to far out to pinpoint location. Several mid level disturbances will also move through the trough aloft, so winds will likely shift around a bit from time to time as well. Looking further out, appears that overall this cooler pattern may have some staying power, hence more seasonable weather may be here to stay for at least a little while.

Amazing stuff as always thanks for this write up!

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We talked it over in discord and plan to keep track of big storms/LES events on here and the smaller day to day stuff will be discussed on there. We have 35 posters who joined and is pretty active daily. If anyone would like to join the discord please PM me through here so I can send out an invite. The invite is good for 7 days. Oct Temps BUF: +0.7 ROC: -1.6 WAT: +0.7 SYR: +1.2 BING: +0.1 The first 2 weeks of November look to start out warm This winter looks to be a 3rd year Nina with not many analogs matching. The NOAA winter forecast looks promising for our area https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina#:~:text=Starting in December 2022 through,northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

Oct Temps BUF: +0.7 ROC: -1.6 WAT: +0.7 SYR: +1.2 BING: +0.1

Oct Temps BUF: +0.2 ROC: -2.2 WAT: +0.3 SYR: +0.8 BING: -0.7

Couple videos I got of this weeks lake effect rain event.

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We have a discord channel we made for this forum. Would you like to be invited? Its pretty active daily, got 34 members that joined. Let me know I can send you a link in your PMS.

First real snow in WNY this morning

The BUF NWS during that event had a lake effect rain event forecasted until the day of. They dropped a lake effect snow advisory for 1-6" of snow the morning the event hit then upgraded to warning that evening when things went crazy. I remember going for a walk with my parents during that event with transformers blowing all over, the sky lit up like a Christmas tree. Branches and trees were snapping nearly every second, my mom nearly getting hit by one. It was not an advisable walk, but it was such a crazy event I had to be out in it. I think the statistics afterward were Buffalo and surrounding areas had over 70% of the trees damaged/destroyed.

We had 2 feet where I was https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=A

I was right in middle of hardest hit area for that storm. Just did this slideshow for it.

This week looks chilly. A rebound to warmer temps for last part of October.

Chance at first snow this coming week. Average is last week of Oct for first flakes.

Happy 16th anniversary for October Surprise storm!

October may go down as the coldest in recent memory. Chances of our first flakes showing up already.

Looks like a chilly start to October. Many will likely see first flakes next week?

Sep Temps BUF: -0.1 ROC: -1.1 WAT: +0.7 SYR: +1.1 BING: -0.4

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I sent him invite