BuffaloWeather

This November is definitely more wintry then normal. We will have 4-5 snow events across Upstate this month. The focus is just across higher elevations and ski country. Some places in ski country will have had 2 feet already on the year by next week. The next 2 weeks favor W/NW flow for LES. The entrance point of the cold air is too far east for a SW flow.

Given the above, went with a very small bullseye of 5-7 inches on the southern Tug Hill for Thursday night through Friday, with 2-4 inches in surrounding lower elevations. There may be minor, inch or less accumulations Friday and Friday night southeast of the lake in the spray of multiple bands, with relatively mild surface temperatures preventing anything more. As far as accumulations go, expect the potential for 3-6 inches in the most persistent bands across the higher terrain of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, with 1-3 inches across far southern Erie, southern Wyoming, and the higher terrain of Allegany County.

..Accumulating lake effect snow Thursday night-Friday... The cold front will exit east across New England Thursday night, with the last of the synoptic rain exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region by early evening. Our attention then turns back to the mesoscale and lake effect potential. Strong cold advection Thursday night will send 850MB temps down to about -8C, then dropping a little more to -9C by Friday evening behind a weak secondary cold front. Flow Thursday night will be westerly, then veer a little to WNW Friday morning before going northwest Friday afternoon behind the secondary cold front. Strong instability will develop over the lakes (especially Lake Ontario) with Lake Induced Equilibrium levels rising to near 15K feet briefly Friday morning. This will set the stage for a robust, albeit brief, lake response later Thursday night through Friday morning. Boundary layer temps stay marginal through the event, with a rain/snow mix close to the lakeshores and snow favored inland across higher terrain Thursday night through Friday.

NOV Temps: BUF: +1.2 ROC: -0.6 WAT: +1.8 SYR: +1.3

Up to 62 degrees in Buffalo, going for walk after work.

Its Nov 17th. No doom or gloom yet, maybe if we get to middle of January and its still warm then maybe. Average high today in buffalo is still 48.

Yeah the Pacific has trended worse with every new model run too.

Decent storm on Monday, might have some SW flow lake enhanced precip ahead of that before quickly turning NW.

Last Christmas was incredible around here. Between Xmas eve and day we had over 30"

Looks good in your spot wolf. Looks like 2 events for you the next week.

There is cold air behind it, typical for November. Average highs are still in the mid/upper 40s.

some LES potential very late Monday into Tuesday

Some Potential there

davinci resolve, its fantastic

Never forget

Yeah first time in my life I maxed out my deductible in health insurance.

I've probably driven through the tug more than anyone in central NY. I've made 50+ ADK trips through the tug lol

yeah looks like best spot is SW of Lowville. 5 miles SW and you average 200+

Looks like the strongest LES events are just west/southwest of Lowville.

@tombo82685 This is probably Lowvilles strongest LES event

Lowville has to be pretty high. They are just north of the perfect LES off of Ontario, have a ton of elevation and latitude. If Fulton averages 170" I would think Lowville would be around 200.

Sounds like what happened to me in January but I didn't have any of the fever, coughing, etc...

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The air dries out quickly behind this system but will certainly be some really strong NW flow bands off Huron/Ontario during this timeframe. Should be exciting time for Rochester-Syracuse corridor. Off of Erie it will be in ski country/hills.

Really good EPS track for central NY