griteater
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Everything posted by griteater
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Higher uncertainty given the stall and crawl scenario, but the Euro Ensembles moving south last night and holding today (along with the FV3), taking the system into SC, is pretty telling IMO
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A related post on this - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51511-hurricane-florence/?do=findComment&comment=4986166
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It goes both ways though. If the latest Euro and FV3 are correct, Raleigh NWS will have to change their maps
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Euro has it slowly moving inland across southern SC Sun morning
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At hr111, Euro has drifted SW to Charleston area
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Euro would be epic flooding in SE NC
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Euro has it still stuck on Wilmington....24 hours now from Thurs night to Fri night....now drifting off the coast due south of Wilmington at hr96.
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Euro is a bad look for SE NC coast. It hasn't moved from hr66 to 81...looks bad for rain, surge, wind there from Wilmington to Topsail, up to Emerald Isle
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At 69-72, it's stalled for the moment with the center just north of Wilmington
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Euro out to 66 - it's a touch slower this run and a touch north...center looks close to Topsail Island
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Euro run looks very similar so far out to hr27
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It's wild to think that it has taken this long, but it's great to now see the hurricane center watch/warning products shown inland as opposed to just at the coast
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Here's the 500mb trend on the Euro Ensemble near landfall time. The anomaly centers in 1) W Alaska, 2) off Pac NW coast, and 3) in SE Canada have sharpened over time....so, after the hurricane leaves the steering influence of the Bermuda High, it's getting stuck in the Carolinas underneath the increasingly more amplified eastern U.S. ridge.
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Looks like the UKMet brings it into Morehead City area (hr72), then into E NC (hr96), then SW to Greenville, SC (hr120)
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CMC has shifted south a bit too from prev run
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GFS out to 48, it looks like it is heading roughly toward the NC/SC border
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GFS is still south out to hr39
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GFS is a little south early on out to hr18
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This says the TVCN is a combination of: AVNI (GFS), EMXI (ECMWF, or Euro), HWFI (HWRF), CTCI (NRL COAMPS-TC w/GFS initial boundary conditions), and EGRI (UKMet) https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
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That seems a bit extreme for Charleston to Hilton Head, but playing it safe
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In terms of the inland track and rainfall, Euro is a noteworthy jog north from its previous run
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Heavy rain axis on Euro is Wilmington area up toward Raleigh and the Triangle
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Euro out to 87 hits Wilmington....was N Myrtle Beach last run
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Cat 5 tracks... Cat 4 & 5 tracks...
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CMC is a little north of previous run thru hr69, tracking toward the southern Outer Banks
