Maggie Valley Steve

Currently raining after a couple of showers yesterday and a couple today. Temperature is 60.

Keep an eye on the Carla Cradle and along any stalled boundaries along the Gulf. I believe East Coast threats are limited for the time being and possibly for the rest of the Season.

So apparently the chilly weather has brought on an early Fall leaf change to maple trees among other varieties here in the Valley! The fire fighters were burning leaves at the Fire Station this afternoon.

It sure looks like our Fall weather will continue into mid September. The models are suggesting multiple potentially strong cold fronts pushing in with the next reinforcing shot arriving later next week. I believe it is safe to say summer is over as the daylight gets shorter!

After a low of 48 this morning, I managed to warm up to 72 this afternoon. Currently it's 63 at the house.

Already down to 56 this evening after an absolutely gorgeous day with a high of 72. Looking like the cool Autumn like air continues into Labor Day and the first week of September. It appears that summer has come to an early end for the Mountains. The models are showing several strong early Fall cold fronts into the first several weeks of September!

Already down to 69 here at the house after a high of 73. Looking like an amazing couple of weeks ahead!

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0966 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 243 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 211845Z - 220045Z Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will expand across portions of the Southern Appalachians through this evening. Rainfall rates at times may reach 3"/hr which could overwhelm soils, especially in sensitive terrain. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...The GOES-E experimental day-cloud phase micro-physics RGB this afternoon shows a rapid uptick in ice-bearing clouds suggestive of strengthening updrafts into Cbs from NW NC through central GA. These updrafts are associated with deepening convection, and there has been a recent uptick in lightning detection within these storms. This suggests that the environment is becoming increasingly favorable for thunderstorms containing heavy rain, as thermodynamics continues to intensify reflected by PWs measured by GPS between 1.6 and 1.9 inches, around the 90th percentile for the date, overlapped with MUCAPE as much as 3000 J/kg. Despite the relatively recent growth across the area, radar-estimated rainfall rates have already exceeded 1.5"/hr according to KGSP. As the aftn progresses, the CAMs are in decently good agreement in both coverage and placement of activity. It appears likely that convection will become widespread as PWs surge to above 2" outside of the higher terrain. This will support rain rates within thunderstorms that will likely exceed 2"/hr (HREF neighborhood probabilities above 30%) and may reach 3"/hr at times as reflected by HRRR 15-min rainfall above 0.75" in a few locations. Storms that develop will be of the pulse variety in response to limited bulk shear, but will also move very slowly on 0-6km mean winds of just around 5 kts. This indicates that despite the relatively short lifetimes expected of any individual cell, total rainfall could reach 2-3" in some areas, and this will be most likely where any boundary collisions, storm mergers, or terrain influences can impact the relative strength and motion of these storms. Soil moisture across the Southern Appalachians is generally well above normal as reflected by NASA SPoRT 0-10cm percentiles that exceed 98% in many areas. This has reduced 1-hr FFG to as low as 1-1.5" in some areas, for which the HREF exceedance probabilities peak above 25%. This is in addition to the general sensitivity across this area due to the terrain, as well as within any urban areas, so any slow moving thunderstorm could produce impacts due to flash flooding through this evening. Weiss ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK

Starting to see signs of a significant cool down beginning this weekend and a reinforcing cold arriving next Monday. We could see lows in the 40's even down in Asheville.

For the second day in a row we've had storms nearby, nothing at the house. A weak cold front isoving through and we're 35 days until Fall arrives. Perhaps someone can start our Mountain Fall/Winter discussions. It won't be long!

Because it's weak and ingested a lot of dry air!

Another wet day in the Valley. Temperatures have warmed a bit, but I still haven't hit 80 this month! I'm seeing hits of a fairly strong front arriving next week. Fall is approaching and we continue to loose datlight.

Another wet day in the Valley where my high today was 74. Looks like a potential flooding issue overnight, particularly for the SW Mountains. Below normal highs looks likely until at least the end of the week, I not so sure a return to above normal will return anytime soon. This is the second week of busted forecasts by GSP.

Woke up to 59 here in the Valley. Amazing streak!

What an amazing start to August!