Maggie Valley Steve

The GFS finally has shifted the secondary cold core upper low south into the Mountains. That secondary feature has the potential for a heavy burst of snow that could break containment and spill into the foothills.

GSP first snowfall map.

Looks like the 12Z Suite of guidance has come in a bit better agreement regarding the NWFS event Sunday night into Tuesday. Temperatures are really going to shock the system with windchill values in the single digits and highs on Monday not getting above freezing.

30 with heavy frost this morning.

Looks like we will have relatively quiet week ahead with daytime highs in the 60's and lows in the upper 30’s to 40’s. A mainly zonal flow should hold until next weekend, then changes are brewing. The various computer schemes suggest a strong Great Lakes gale developing and moderate to heavy snow across portions of the Region. There are hints of snow upslope snow showers along the border Counties late next weekend depending on timing. I continue to see signs that indicate the possibility of below normal temperatures and storm chances into the Thanksgiving Holiday period.

29 this morning with heavy frost on the Valley floor.

Woke up to 33 this morning with frost. I just emptied 3.24 inches out the gage for the week. Not too shabby at all!

What a raw wet day in the Valley. Temperature started out in the upper 30’s and has managed to 'heat up' to the mid and upper 40’s this afternoon. GSP stated in their afternoon disco that the freezing levels are beginning to drop rather quickly and a good chance for snow showers from 3500 ft and the possibility of some light accumulations.

We've been stuck in the soup for 3 days with temperatures stuck in the 40's. It looks like there may be a wintry mix Thursday night into Friday morning above 5K and freezing temperatures possible early Saturday morning. I'm keeping an eye on early next as yet another Gulf Coast low organizes with an digging upper trough and robust cold front headed our way. The models have flipped from a clipper to a wrapped meandering upper low. If this is the pattern ahead as we head into November, things could become interesting.

42 and rain this morning. It's going to be an interesting week weather wise. Thursday night into Friday morning we should be under the influence of a potent cold core upper low. Temperatures look marginal at this range, but surprises often occur in a transitioning pattern. I continue to see additional changes towards a colder regime and periods of unsettled weather. Oh, and they have started making a snow mound at Tube World last week. Tis the season!

Coldest air of the Fall Season so far ahead for early Friday morning. My 8 to 10 day long range forecast is depicting snow next Thursday and Halloween. If the model trends hold into early next week, we may have a legitimate chance of at least some up slope snow. We will see what if any influence Melissa and a potent upper low dropping out of Canada bring regarding our sensible weather.

43 this morning in the Valley.

34 currently at the house and the first light frost of the Fall Season.

My afternoon point and click forecast is showing 34 for the low Monday morning and again on Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning is showing 32. Next week is looking chilly.

Always climo. That keeps them 'safe'...wink...