LakePaste25

During the June heatwave i had clear blue skies with dew points in the 70s. it was like a more mellow Dubai climate. I loved it!

One thing I really like is that our summers are getting more humid. I really don’t like hot and dry summers, I find them boring. I love waking up at 6am and it’s almost 80 degrees out. I’d much rather have 99 with a dew point of 80 than 105 with a dew point of 60.

Now do fossil fuel subsidies. Of course we shouldn’t because that’s politics, and so is your post. This subforum is about the science behind climate change.

I’m not sure about July, but June 2025 came in cooler than the last 2 Junes. Not really surprising because as shown on the graph, warming occurs under a “staircase” model. There will always be random variability.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38348610/ I’d look into Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD). Warming temperatures and the atmosphere’s ability to hold more water isn’t a linear relationship, it’s exponential. Think of it as a bigger sponge. The sponge can hold more water, so when it does get “wrung out,” it means more extreme flooding rains. On the other hand, as it can hold more water, it can also mean that it’s easier to form drought. The Midwest has been lucky in this regard due to favorable long wave patterns.

Shades of 2011 where we see the extreme June ridge return for a second time in late July, but further west this time.

Important to note that the 2021 ridge had some local geographic factors involved in addition to just the strength. There was a major downslope east wind event coming off of the Cascade mountains due to a surface low off the coast. For our region, the equivalent would probably be a downsloping west wind event that would send central park and EWR well beyond all-time record highs.

All else aside, I prefer a warmer tropical western pacific and weak ENSO. There’s studies that show this combination alone can provide enough forcing for the pattern we saw in 13-14, 14-15, and this past winter.

NOAA makes post ad-hoc adjustments to stations when they are moved to account for difference in temperature. @chubbs can attest to this - for example, one of the warmest recording stations of the 20th century (Coatesville) was moved to a cooler, higher elevation location and adjustments were made accordingly.

I vote to keep this thread going. CC discussion (to some extent) is unavoidable when you’re talking about winter in the northeast. Only shut it down if it goes to constant back and forth arguing.

If I were to compare Dec/Jan ‘24-‘25 to Jan/Feb 2015, both patterns look similar at face value (+PNA/-EPO), but late Jan to Feb 2015 was a far snowier pattern for the northeast, with storms constantly bombing out over the benchmark. The thing that really stands out to me is that in 2015, the pacific jet was more equatorward (see that area of blue further south in the eastern pacific, area of orange in zonal wind). A more equatorward pacific jet is more favorable because it allows for more amplified ridging out west, allowing storms to dig.

The lake effect snow here and the record warm lakes earlier in the season is the only reason we did well here. Most of the clippers went north of here, which is fairly unusual in this type of +PNA/-EPO pattern. While that was cold enough for snow here, it did not allow much redevelopment east of the mountains, so the precip of these light to moderate clippers mostly fell apart by the time they reached the coastal plain. The further north track can probably be attributed to the stronger pacific jet as mentioned.

The end of run EPS are showing signs of a Nino-like pacific jet extension, bringing the risk of mild temperatures across North America. Depending on how this shakes out, it could bring our first shot of spring-like temperatures, particularly the interior/areas not subject to CAD. If it verifies less extended (stops short of the west coast), then we likely continue to see colder than normal temperatures. There are currently mixed and competing ensemble signals in regards to this.

Yeah exactly. The longer the fetch across water the better. Of course you still generally need cyclonic flow, but a weak clipper or a storm passing offshore over the atlantic would probably be enough to do that. A developing 50/50 low lodged under a block would produce it for several days.

In Japan, it’s usually cold air advection driven ocean effect snow, similar to lake effect snow off the great lakes. Far easier to get that when you’re east of a large body of water as opposed to the Atlantic where you need the southern and northern stream to phase and a favorable storm track, otherwise it’s mostly cold and dry.