vortexse93

First I want to apologize for being late to the party and secondly this my first time posting within this thread but wanted to say my two cents regarding this event for the 12 to 24 hours. Wintry precip should be ongoing across AR and should start to see some of that wintry precip into West TN into northern MS within the next few hours and well into Friday with majority of the wintry precip ending by Friday night. For along I-40 and north will see mainly snow with amounts of 4" to 6" widespread. However, model guidance has beginning to increase those amounts closer to 10" to even a foot of snow in some places. This will be highly dependent on where the heavier snowbands will be located. For those south of the TN/MS state line, will see more of wintry mix throughout the night into early morning. The wintry mix eventually transition to snow as temps are expected to hit freezing. Those in North MS may not see snow as the there is a warm nose extends well into northern MS. This is where I suspect the freezing rain and sleet will be more persistent and could see some accumulations. What makes tomorrow forecast difficult for northern MS, is the location of the warm nose at the 850 mb and where that freezing will settle out as that will determine who gets what throughout the night into tomorrow afternoon. If sfc temps remain at or below freezing and a warm layer is still present, could very well see more freezing rain/sleet accumulations than snow. However, if temps both at the sfc and at the 850 mb are both below freezing, will see more snow/sleet than freezing rain. Regardless, I do suspect wintry precip accumulation across the region, but for some it will be matter of how much snow; while others it will be a question of what and how much. Please see images below for references of the precip type and 850 mb temp. Model data from 21z RAP from COD Weather.