Picard

At some point this afternoon, the Hillsboro station recorded a HI of 121.  If you point and click into the View Data option, it shows.

Some stations are heading for real-feel temperatures of 120+, at least in short bursts.  Maybe some of that data would need to be smoothed out to compensate for sensor noise, but still.

Heat indexes already 105-110 in spots to our south!

Well they had it half right, it got very sticky and warm here in the late afternoon - standing over the grill was brutal.  Weather station read a 101 heat index around 5:30 pm with a dewpoint of 78.

I wonder what kind of rain totals are occurring up and around the Binghamton area.  It looks like some training was taking place up that way and they have been building back to some extent as the morning progresses.

Thundering here.

Someone is getting a sheet ton of rain with the way it's moving, and also appears to be re-loading a bit on it's back end.

Picked up 0.6" in about 12 minutes with that cell that passed over me.  Nothing severe, just torrential rain and a bit of a breeze with some rumbles of thunder.

And just like that.  The sun comes out and dewpoints into the 70s.   Feels like summer.

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

this is shitty weather, power bills, what about those of us who had our heat on?

We need our summer back and it's coming back and anyone who whines about wanting rain before September, I will pounce on them like a tiger on a lamb.

You never cease to amaze.

2.65" storm total.  We really got under some heavy radar returns for several hours overnight.

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yeah, especially with 20% electric rate increases kicking in starting Sunday for all utility companies serving NJ.  

Also got a letter last week from home Insurance company (Chubb) that they have applied for a 12% increase.  They were not shy in stating why.  In a nutshell if approved I'll be paying 12% more for California fires, Florida hurricanes and any other weather calamity they want to throw in there.

The costs of homes and autos, including insurance is becoming untenable.  If someone's fancy Land Rover gets washed away in a flood, insurance is out 80-100K, which are costs they will ultimately pass on to everyone.  Even a minor fender bender can be over 10K in repairs.  Many of these homes wrecked in fires and floods are north of a million bucks.  But even lower end homes and autos are becoming too expensive to maintain and repair.

Wow, zilch to boom in 15 minutes.  Blew up right over us.  A quick quarter inch with several loud cracks of thunder.  Wasn't expecting that.

Looks like a bit of excitement coming through PA if it holds together.

The rain finally developed far enough east to put us under a steady heavier rain for several hours.  We were closing in on an inch before I left and it was still raining pretty good.  It looks like we might dry slot, maybe scattered lighter showers after 10 AM or so.  But I think we've already reached at least the low side of the predictions, and the water for the plants is welcome.  

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is to be expected with a strong southeast ridge, usually north and west areas do better with rainfall.

That's fine, but recent forecasts haven't really been reflective of that fact.

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm skeptical of upton's 70-90% chance of rain at least through tonight

So, earlier, NWS Mount Holly dropped maps on X showing amounts up to 3" over North Jersey.  I replied with my skepticism, similar to what I did here.  And their account replied to me with the following:

"We have been missing out on better rainfall recently, but chances are looking better for a soaking rain tonight and tomorrow, at least from around I-95 and northwest".

1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

Dumb question where the heck is this rain coming from. Closest rain is well severs hundreds of miles away. 

Possibly nowhere for some.  It all depends on where the storms pop up and any banding might set up.  These are tricky forecasts and modeling hasn't been great.  I'd be skeptical of calls for area-wide 2" the next couple of days, but that's just my non-expert opinion.

Storms are firing off in their favorite spots out to the N and W.  For now that's where they'll stay - they could sneak a little further into the area later on.  We'll see.  

I remain skeptical of calls for a wetter pattern.  While I agree that there are things that may point to it, often times we see much of the precipitation off to the north and west or hook around and out of the area entirely.  This has been a trend for month after month now.  The latest drought monitor is out, which shows modest improvements in the more severe drought areas for NJ, but much of the more pronounced improvements in the northeast are all over central PA as well as central and western NY State.  

Wow on radar.  Just not here.
I wonder what the totals will be from those storms over northern PA.

Interesting setup.  You're in the monsoon and then some if the banding sets up over you.
I'm still at 0.8" total for the wet stretch.  We'll see if anything sets up this afternoon.  If the sun were to break through, that could be entertainment for someone.  

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

NJ and NYS mesonrtd have about 2.3” near High Point NJ and Port Jervis NY.  Am remote so can’t verify but am sure SR23 washout is legit.  Don’t know how serious. 

It looked like a training effect was setting up on radar earlier for that area.  I figured they must've gotten heavier amounts.
When we do get thunderstorms into this area, the very top of NJ seems to do well.  I've lived in Sparta for 5 years, and it's a regular occurance to be able to watch storms off our northwest facing deck, as they train along the top of NJ and into Orange County.  I can often hear distant rumbles of thunder and the clouds are always an awesome sight.  It's less common for storms to miss to the south.

Is there anything to the geography of the area that causes this to happen?   I'd love to see average rainfall over the past few years from Port Jervis, NY vs Sparta NJ, especially during thunderstorm season.

0.35" overnight from the 11 PM storm.  Decent lightening and thunder and a brief power outage.  
Looks like we might get clipped by some more later, as the radar appears to be on the right trajectory,
but as someone else pointed out, getting in on the rains is a little like playing the lottery.

Hopefully folks didn't cancel outdoor plans based on earlier forecasts that didn't materialize. 
I watched that line skip north like many others in recent memory  - looked like a nice line.  We'll see if more pops up later.  Otherwise, north will continue to rule the day.

So it goes as with most of the storms here.  I'm left wondering if we'll get much of anything the next few days.

The latest drought monitor continues to show the same persistent trends nearly perfectly, in that the precip hits a wall about 2/3 of the way across PA and NY state.  Look what happened with last weeks line, shredded to nothing once it passed state college.  It's interesting how parts of NY state and New England have had persistent rain and snow these past months, and have run normal or above in the precipitation category.  These same trends can be seen on soil moisture maps too.

Bottom Line: don't cancel any outdoor plans.  You might be fine.