DarkSharkWX

i agree... continuing into the start of nov a lot of guidance has the -NAO being quite persistent (even if its far out) which would make sense given the evidence that has been portrayed, Paul Roundy said that november would likely be the best month to curtail the SER, with the shift to more SER being sometime in january

2021-22/2005-06 were pretty decent, 1995-1996 was obviously really good, and 2017-18 was generally cold/snowy for the east coast we just got really unlucky that year

imo the -QBO is slightly worse for us since we'll get more southeast ridging in general(since convection will be more centered around the equator, more poleward convection would also push the pattern more poleward), however, it also means more active/stronger MJO, as well as a weaker PV earlier on, so that could help overwhelm any other subseasonal factor in providing good patterns even if brief if MJO propagates to favorable phases(which, so far, it looks decently good to do so) probably a decent amount better for new england/interior northeast since they are a lot less sensitive to SER, and a lot was very suppressed for them for a good chunk of the winter

to which statement (assuming both) IOD's effect really depends on strength/location of ENSO... a study i read the other day about CP/EP ninas and the subsequent impact on NAO saw that CP ENSO had statistically significant correlation(SSTA between 180-150W) to either +NAO/-NAO depending on if it was cp nina/nino respectively, but the correlation for EP ninas/ninos was too weak to discern anything as concrete

this is really interesting b/c if im not mistaken IOD/IO forcing has the highest correlation to +WPO, so you wouldn't think that it would exactly be favorable for NAO maybe through stratospheric reflection events?

it will probably depend where the center of the IPWP ultimately ends up(east is more poleward ridging, west would be more towards an Aleutian ridge) as well as how strong the Nina gets/how much it develops. So far the cold pool in the subsurface has been surfacing with easterlies which is leading to the Nina getting pretty established, but it is still ep in origin. the IPWP has great backing from the subsurface, all the way to the dateline too, so that would likely put a cap on its development closer to the dateline

isnt this normal/expected (for the IPWP) in +TNH cluster winters? although you are certainly right with the warmest waters being between 140-160E, -QBO increases instability in the UTLS which should fuel more active/stronger convection on the equator, but since the Nina is east-based/not very strong, theoretically, MJO propogation should be able to make it into more favorable phases at times https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/3/JCLI-D-22-0010.1.xml

early in January? wouldn't that be later on in mid-late january

while this is true, the current ssta configuration in the tropics is favorable for MJO propagation with a warm pool in the west pacific that's backed by the subsurface along -QBO and an east based nina, so we should still be able to get a decent amount of poleward ridging episodes -QBO and solar max should cancel each other out but in general could be more open to -NAO/-AO episodes early on in winter(HT relationship for (+QBO/solarmax) says weak PV start, strong PV mid-late winter) I do think that we see more southeast ridging this winter in general though

why/how/in what way does ace matter for winter? i've seen a few people mention it before but its not widely described

it hasn't meant much since the PDO flipped negative long-term in the early 2020s

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/3/JCLI-D-22-0010.1.xml Shouldn't have too much of an issue with getting propogating MJO especially combined with the -QBO which will help increase instabillity in the upper tropopause/lower stratosphere, +SSTA over 140-175E will help enhance moisture convergence in the leading phase/wave of the MJO

doesnt eastern IO forcing have the highest correlation to +WPO?

decent amount of bob warming recently

i'm pretty sure this is the one that evb uses, https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=iod