Stormchaserchuck1

Feb 5-21 +PNA possibility (I think the dates surrounding.. Feb 1-4 and Feb 22-28 into March will go -PNA)

It's verifying.. scientific-math. validity vs random

 Next one is Feb 5-21, 2022

Next one Feb 5-21, 2023, this will verify.

This will verify.2023

fwiw

Verified

NW, US cold anomaly (SD) Feb 5th, since year 2000: Reverses in March. (Models have a strong -500mb vortex over WA,OR on Feb 5th. 

I would guess that this is maybe to favor a -NAO in March.. -NAOlRNA-tendency

Feb 1st.. 5th consecutive year

Feb 5th v

Again, the last 3 years were strong in the N. Pacific Feb 5th. Believe it or not, the 4 years prior, were all -EPO/vortex in that area in the date: 

Model has another tremendous -PNA this Feb 5th., 

The 18z GFS is a lot warmer than the 18z NAM for the beginning of the storm.

591+dm ridge on the coldest day of the year (average) lol

Draw over it all you want hr150 and 174 same thing 593dm maybe even.. last time models did this was for the pattern right after this Christmas.

(Jan 27th the coldest high/low day of the year, script?)

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

i don't know what that  means. You are acting like no one has any chance against KC. the bills beat them in Arrowhead earlier this year and Cincinnati LITERALLY has beaten KC three straight times since a year ago.

So, yeah. They have a chance to make this  a contest...

Chiefs 60% chance to win, Eagles 25% chance, everyone else (combined winning streak +28 games BUF-CIN-SF) 15%, imo. 

My guess would be that we have a window mid-Late February, the dates when last year's -PNA peaked.. March is not going to snow probably, as I am looking at -PNA for March

29 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

the bills and bengals both beat KC already this year so...I feel like they could give a contest...

Football is really mechanical if you watch too much of it (NFL at least).

25 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Which game will be most entertaining this weekend?

KC is really 1:1.8 odds to Super Bowl, when Vegas has them right now at 1:4.5. PHL is the only team in the league that would possibility contest. Bet KC, with PHL as a security play on the SB imo (I don't know how bad Hurt's is hurt.). 

Moist

These snowdepth maps are really good for all generalities, I've learned. Since 2018, they have verified I think everytime, or 90% vs model p-type radar plots of the same model. Shows a pretty clear-long miss. 

2 blizzards in Flagstaff (warm subsurface)

The problem is that the technology of internet is much greater than moderators and what most people are not lazy to do. My .02

Yeah, this is our window.. 4th sd -anomaly over Greenland, 4 ridges spanning from it,  during +PNA

Pacific-PNA pattern reverses, model at this range is 0.85 correlation

gets worse (orientation of -PNA)

The worst I've ever seen them was Sedona, Arizona. +2,000 in the sky

Check out how the PNA changes right when there is a 500mb vortex over Greenland (+PNA-+NAO). As long as this condition continues, it's not really going to snow in the Mid Atlantic. 

just wont stop snowing

everyone knows why I like 09-10 

1997, 2001 analogs (97-98/01-02). Love the -NAO in Dec when it's wetter lol

I would bet on +PNA conditions in April, and -PNA default in March, and maybe something resembling March31-Apr1 1997, but that's "3rd position point" of tampering/\/. lol(the storm correlation if it happens)

(^Nevermind +PNA March-Apr-May 2023, we had a strong N. Pacific Ocean 500mb vortex last March-April-May, which I think is this emerging El Nino already considered. [Extra point, I haven't been too scientifically oriented.] can obviously do better...

We are getting warm to near record warm in the western ENSO subsurface now.. this is *C, so if it's *F, that's about +10F, or 10degrees above average.. subsurface water normal temperature of 55 degrees would be about 65 degrees now. 

Differences in the N. Pacific pattern happen starting around 170W and -200m, to 120W and -100m.. that region is overall negative anomalies right now (favoring RNA, -PNA)

Only years that were this extreme in the subsurface were 1997..March. and 1982 Jan/Feb. If I'm wrong, someone correct me (memory from ~5+ years ago). I think this favors a Strong El Nono, with 70% chance of overall El Nino conditions later this year. 

But we are hitting strong -PNA in the first few days of February on LR models, so an atmospheric correction (nolag) has occurred?

Everything to Dec19-29 will adjust (I've been looking at 4 model runs a day for 20 years). +PNA Dec19-29, will give us a less pronounced -EPO, and because the Atlantic has been negatively correlating, probably less of a -NAO, although we have developed a -NAO tendency around Christmas since 2014, happening 7/8 years, with an average +120dm anomaly, vs the -60dm +NAO for Dec-Mar in the combination of those 8 Winter's. (re: 18z GFS ensembles) I think the -NAO tendency for Christmas 12/25.. will adjust to -EPO/+PNA, so watch for that gravity. 12/25 -EPO/+PNA and 12-19to29 +PNA.. besides that the rest of the N. Hemisphere pattern likely will flatten out/neutralize, LR models for the next 4-8 days will adjust accordingly<-. 

fear not.. Dec19-29 is coming