Stormchaserchuck1

More data is always better.

Science and education are two things you need an organized body for... you can cut the rest. They seem to be doing the opposite.

I think Gawx has done research correlating the Solar cycle with ENSO states. I think he found out that there might be a few year lag for highest correlation.. he posted it in ENSO threads in previous years (or maybe I am thinking of the NAO). Thanks for the solar data by the way, that is actually really hard to find!

2003-2022 was definitely a low sunspot time, lowest 20-year period since before the 1900s I think. It may have something to do with the higher than average La Nina frequency during that time. This cycle was a big shift up. I'm actually surprised that the numbers aren't higher because of how many times the Aurora moved towards the tropics.. I don't think that has ever happened before.

-PDO is intensifying and could come in around -3 for July if there are no major changes. We average about 3 more named storms/yr in the Atlantic in -PDO vs +PDO. It also favors a pattern in the last Summer/Fall that supports more Gulf of Mexico landfalls.

Will be interesting to see if we see a change in the Pacific pattern over the next 1-2 years. Solar cycle +12 months Solar cycle +24 months I do think there is higher likelihood for El Nino in 26-27 and/or 27-28

Good thing it's not Winter.. this is quite a streak of bad indices: June will be the 5th month in a row with +NAO 4th straight month of +AO 4th straight month of -PNA The roll forward-combined of these three over a 4-month period looks like this for the following Winter (DJFM) (colored is 53-55% probability): And now June will be the 9th straight month of +SOI.. this tells me that the atmosphere is not in a state of major change. Recent analogs could be better ones going forward.

We are really going -PDO If this keeps up, the July monthly may come close to -3! The further into the Summer you go, the stronger the Jan-Feb PNA correlation is to PDO

Only the 2nd time Chicago has ever had 3 straight lows 78+ in June, the other time being 1931. The ridge ended up effecting northern parts of the US more relative to average, which makes sense because it's +NAO driven, and wavelengths are shorter in the Summer, making the highest correlated area to the north.

I'd be surprised if we were at record low levels, the warm season so far has been very +NAO/+AO

It's looking more and more likely that June will be the 9th straight +SOI month.. impressive for Neutral per ONI 24 Jun 2025 1017.08 1013.00 19.61 3.83 3.14 23 Jun 2025 1017.04 1013.25 17.57 3.71 3.03 22 Jun 2025 1016.71 1013.45 13.85 3.91 2.95

Since 1995, Atlantic tropics have very often produced a storm before July 1: 24/30 years (80%) had a Tropical Storm before July 1 27/30 years (90%) had a Tropical Depression before July 1

PDO will probably approach -3 monthly again

The further into the Summer you go, the stronger the Jan-Feb PNA correlation is to PDO

Good stuff. If that's the Indian Ocean anomalies during the Fall we can expect higher probability for a +WPO Winter

Look at this -PDO taking shape

The correlation is surprisingly weak, given that it's a 4-5 month consecutive period. I always though there was more correlation with earlier in the year indexes begetting later patterns. Here's the correlation for the following Winter: +NAO (positive correlation) +AO (positive correlation) -PNA (negative correlation) Combined they look like this for following Winter US Temps.. colored is like 53-55% probability

This was a bust.. Heating Oil went from $2.48 to $2.26 in the 5-day projection period.. 9% drop. I was expecting something in the other direction.

Powerful heatwave headed for Europe too, as the strong +NAO spins out over the next few days.. 5940dm tropical jet makes it to Paris, France.

The wet pattern just continues and continues Since 2002, every "developing drought" has been followed by well above average rainfall in the eastern 1/2 of the US.

June will be the 5th month in a row with +NAO 4th straight month of +AO 4th straight month of -PNA Quite a streak for bad indexes if it were Winter lol

La Nina is also somewhat of a -WPO indicator.. Indian Ocean didn't look like it had strong SSTA's that year. I would look at the map and say slightly negative projection.

Dec 2021 actually had an all time record breaking Aleutian ridge.. it reached +600 for a couple of days at its max! I know 21-22 is the only -WPO Winter since 16-17, but the -PNA was more powerful that Winter. The Aleutian ridge just went poleward.

Correlation actually hits a little different at different times of the year.. there is a Spring/early Summer correlation and a Fall correlation. Counter-intuitively, there is a +PDO correlation in the Apr-Jul composite before a +WPO Winter. I know the last 8 years have had mostly -PDO with +WPO, but if you go over a longer dataset (to 1948, 73 years), there is actually a +PDO signal in the Spring ^The global pattern as you can see early in the year is still south. That pattern really lifts north by the Fall, and gives us these high correlations over the Indian Ocean and ENSO the Fall before. That +0.6 correlation max SE of India is ridiculous for a 73 year dataset (very high).

Yeah.. the issue is that the long term WPO since the 1940s has gone linearly from negative to positive, coinciding with global warming. It might be an issue of not enough data.. Will be interesting to see if we can get a longer term -WPO time in this warmer climate phase. I really like the high correlation SSTAs from the Indian Ocean to Western Pacific summer-fall before a WPO event.. it appears to be somewhat predictable. The SSTs currently favor more of a +WPO Winter, I agree, but I think post-2023/4 something shifted and we don't have as much of a pattern as 2018-2023.