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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    You guys dont love this look? https://ibb.co/gyHKtGf It's close to a big storm That Aleutian island block.. if it doesn't go anywhere.. should help send the moisture further NW (slightly more amped SE ridge)
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    If it hangs back later, we might be able to do a stronger storm, because that piece of the Polar Jet is rotating SW in SE Canada (to possibly phase.. or at least close to it) https://ibb.co/ZBPR9Qy
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's colder this run.. stronger -NAO. I might take the trend, it's not as good as 18z, but there is potentially more upside
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z RGEM vs 18z GFS is similar to 0z NAM vs 18z gfs.. flatter trough, but hanging more energy back in the west.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    00z NAM at 84hr vs 90hr 18z GFS... looks better on the NAMhttps://ibb.co/bmg6rjL
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    We seem to be hitting -NAO's more often, but they are being overwhelmed. I think this +Nao/+pna-epo .. or -Nao/-pna+epo correlation is going to hold. If you look at the clouds... about 2-3 years ago we starting getting more cloud thickness. I think that is a long term graduation program. We still have a ways to go to detox all this snow-melt seasons, but I think we are trending toward something more favorable a few years down the road.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nina's after a Nino are actually a myth.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what we should have when there is a block over the Davis Strait like this. 2 jets underneath of it.. perhaps phasing. look at this potential energy on the 18z gfs run
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looking good on the snow depth
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    976mb in Maine.. it starts phasing with the northern system.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hanging more energy back in the west.. that's one part of what we need.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PDO has been chipping away so maybe we see it in February. My intuition says probably not, if it were to be a staple mark El Nino feature it probably would have happened at some point by now. We are on Neutral heights for the N. Pacific pattern, El Nino to date.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah it makes the later part of the wave the one to watch, which would time with the -NAO rising better.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z NAM is a little flatter vs 12z GFS fwiw https://ibb.co/ftdFKW1 Hudson Bay low is moving all around.. it would be nice to get that to phase https://ibb.co/gjBvWfw
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Aleutian island block may help this thing trend NW in the coming days.. It's not like we are in some deep +pna pattern, the pacific is still favorable for a slight SE ridge.. maybe this works to our favor this time. Either way, the Euro and GFS ensembles in agreement is usually a good combo
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, we had a nice NE Pacific High pressure when the 2-3 cutters happened though https://ibb.co/GFXBnJG Now, the NAO space and 50/50 low were just about perfect, but this goes back to our argument that the Pacific is dominating right now..
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah like something over the Gulf of Alaska. Correlation works less after Jan, into Feb-Mar though. +0.53 in Jan, +0.3 in Feb, +0.2 in March <(closer we can get to GOA low with a mean trough over the east).
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    2016 is best analog, but Fall/Winter 2023-24 is #1 right now for global precipitable water since 1948
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    LR GFS has a nice -EPO.. that's what I want to see.. and +PNA. Let's get this thing going.. Whole world and the subtropics are really wet right now.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z GEFS really doesn't have much with the 16-17 storm. 3/27 members it looks like.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Following February's from those analogs look like seasonal models currently have https://ibb.co/K6mtPwr Globe is a little too cold biased for my liking, and the GOA low has been missing so far in this El Nino. Maybe D+8 model will shift a little bit.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, if that block can hold over Alaska, and close off a strong low underneath of it, downstream wave should be able to pick up energy from the gulf.. we're almost there. Still a little ways to go
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC is going with below average precip right now https://ibb.co/Zg7hQs7
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I am interested to see if +PNA holds if we go back to -NAO past 15D..
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Stratosphere warming should hit be hitting a favorable -NAO correlation time around then, too. It's like +80-120dm on the mean at +20-25 days.
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