Stormchaserchuck1

Ravens came in as only a 3 point favorite at home.. for some reason Vegas doesn't like Lamar Jackson. I think it was easy to tell that the offense has been on fire

You don't mind that N. Pacific high? It's been overpowering the NAO since 2018-19. I know it is not as strong on model but it still has been holding more weight. look at the N. American pattern starting to flatten out a bit too with more of a SW trough.

Then Det going for 2 when they have 10yds to go (which is like a 30% probability). This is after they didn't go for it 4th and goal from the 4 when the game was 10-10. That's why it's hard to watch football: There is a site called advancedNFLstats and it calculates the odds of everything, and basically teams are almost always wrong not going for it on 4th down.

I'm just saying, I'm 10/10 for seeing that pattern in the Pacific at Day 7 and the storm going to rain or phased out.

They basically went with an El Nino and so far it's looking like we are going opposite in the Pacific Ocean (at least through Jan 15th). I think a good model could have predicted that (because it's pattern persistence).

Science is not really emotional. It's not hard to be objective. People just worship models, no one or nothing can do better, and they aren't even that great if you know what you're looking at.. climo or persistence has worked better lately, don't you dare tell that the EPS or Euro weeklies are not that good lol.

Believe it or not, The waves of +PNA/GOA low correlate downstream with our temperature the most in January, and the least in December. This is why it was amazing to have an Aleutian/GOA low in December, and right around Jan 1-2 the pattern dissolves. https://ibb.co/mvGCw9F https://ibb.co/82Wq2kB 15% correlation in December. 53% correlation in January. On Jan 1-2, the N. Pacific low dissolved and giving way to a High! Now it's the opposite effect

I'm surprised we didn't squash the SE ridge in mid-March because the Pacific ridge extended up to -EPO. Must be because it's in the later part of the -PNA phase/cycle https://ibb.co/SRLw91H https://ibb.co/QX0zz36

https://ibb.co/BtJGb7J March 2018 was the last time we saw -NAO-based trough in the East in the Winter months.

I've been telling everyone "not through Jan 15th" (more realistically looks like through the 20th, then we'll probably change).

In 7 days it posts a big Aleutian ridge. This has been overwhelming the NAO just constantly since 2018-19

These setups don't trend favorably inside 7 days. We would need a big Pacific pattern change.

I don't see this being snow at all in verification https://ibb.co/gTZh53c Pattern is building from the Pacific. looks like the GFS gets luckily with the timing but you see there is a 2nd low developing to the west of the system.

12z Euro actually shows us getting some flurries Monday with a clipper. That's what I'm most excited about. Cool pics guys!

Good post Don. Not many examples, but -PDO/El Nino December's are very close to verification for the month: https://ibb.co/yfBVPXY https://ibb.co/tmFPSmv January of the 4 analogs I came up with: https://ibb.co/2nnqHrG https://ibb.co/sR01NT1 Talk about getting it coincidentally right for half of the Winter!

We have had an anomalous global pattern since 1998. As you can see below, the -PNA (North Pacific ridge), has recently exceed global warming and appears as an anomalous area in the Hemisphere: https://ibb.co/2csFL89 Because we have had a N. Pacific Ocean ridge, many have identified the waters effected as "-PDO", because they are measured based on cyclical moves over long periods. However, if you look at the whole globe, you will see that the area effected in the N. Hemisphere where the Hadley Cell and Mid-latitude Cell meet is the same place as in the S. Hemisphere where the Mid-latitude Cell and Hadley Cell meet: https://ibb.co/yRGTTHn Based on that, you would say forcing is not coming from a body of water in the N. Pacific ocean, but the equator, and more specifically the Nino 3.4 region where variations have been known to make big global impacts. So in the last 25 years, I separated years by ENSO event and Neutral, and found that we are seeing a La Nina base state in both conditions: ENSO analogs: https://ibb.co/V9yfKh2 Neutral ENSO: https://ibb.co/g7ffp52 The Hadley/mid-latitude cell meet is still there on both composites, but it expands both north and south in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere on the Neutral ENSO years. I think that instead of identifying this period as -PDO phase, we should call it more of a La Nina phase (98-23). Basically, when ENSO is Neutral we are still getting an equilateral La Nina base state.

Stratosphere warming is happening https://ibb.co/MRc03C6 That was basically my theorem, that El Nino and -QBO would give us good snowfall/cold Winter periods. I don't see why that can't be achieved. -PNA is pesky but it might change at the coldest Winter time, and our precip has been well above avg since the Summer: https://ibb.co/r5k2sc6 It might also help to keep up with Natural Gas price, Lots of things are happening that we don't know about.

I'm more worried about the cold air flow. but I guess this is closer, problem with the first system is lack of High pressure to the north, or 998mb low in SE Canada. 2nd storm has a Aleutian ridge already building so this starts to pump a SE ridge in the 500mb pattern. In my experience those two factors trend less favorable as we move toward the actual storm getting closer (lack of cold air needed)(rain), but the system could amplify. To trend better, The El Nino may start effecting the pattern in trend? I think it's 90/10 these will be rainstorms in verification.

Yeah, I don't think this is because it's an east or west-based Nino https://ibb.co/yQxk7bS

Do you think that models like the EPS are too programmed for it? In researching, I found that Stratosphere warmings in 10mb never exceeded +2500, and we are already at +1600 as of 12/27

I'm not one to give up on snow. It seems like a lot more precipitation is happening, and the possibility for stronger storms. I always thought 09-10 was a step in this direction. You see how on the coast the trend is actually upward. I think the -PNA is the real problem, and that even held in a lot of the early 2000s when we were doing well with snowfall. https://ibb.co/2csFL89 As the pattern relaxes, low's are energized not inland, but off the coast over the water, and the early 2000s were filled with examples of this, where they would track just right off the coast. I don't see that trend as disappearing, I just think it has been a very -PNA for 7 years. In the later part of a -PNA cycle, SE ridges are more dominant.

Why? Most El Nino's have a nasty +PNA by mid-January (historically), this usually correlates to an east coast trough. It seems like as things are happening "a lot of people expected it"

Pretty strong Stratosphere warming already happening in the historical CDC daily dataset https://ibb.co/MRc03C6 The average time-lag of 500mb -NAO effects is +25-30 days, so that give us ~Jan 19-24 as the start of probable -NAO conditions. Here is how the NAO correlates to US temperatures [default positive]: https://ibb.co/S0rqMcL Believe it or not, the Jan 19th date matches exactly when my roll forward Jan 5-13 N. Pacific ridge in ENSO changes/reverses and becomes a +PNA/colder pattern (2 different variables in different region). So I would watch maybe Jan 21st on as a possibility to go colder, and have a wintery period in the east.

I'll include updates about the Stratosphere warming in this thread We are already hitting Stratosphere warming territory, as of Christmas: (as per the method I used to research historical -NAO correlations): https://ibb.co/Htm37sB 12-27 is already pretty strong https://ibb.co/MRc03C6 Dec 25-27 has a normal/average lag to 500mb of +25-30 days. So that makes the highest probability of -NAO conditions to start on Jan 19. Stratosphere warmings at 10mb usually last a total of 15-45 days. This one seems projected on models to go on pretty long.

We are already hitting legit Stratosphere warming territory, as of Christmas https://ibb.co/Htm37sB 12-27 is pretty strong https://ibb.co/MRc03C6