Stormchaserchuck1

If Nino 1+2 could remain this warm for another 1-2 months, that would be impressive. We haven't really seen anything anomalous since 2012. 15-16 Super Nino was a sliding scale down of past Strong Nino's, imo. It's a -PNA era since 2010 and 2013 for whatever reason. I've seen a lot of neutral (even-out) patterns the last few years...

We've seen 3 rounds of higher latitude blocking empty out to well above average mid-latitudes. We'll see if the El Nino is a variable that could conquer this.. My point about 65-66, which I've seen with other developing strong Nino's, is that they historically are colder times for the globe, before it gets going).

I wouldn't forecast a less active Atlantic hurricane season until the warmth gets into Nino 3.4. May 9-12 is a good test, the central subsurface is warming pretty strong today vs yesterday.

Everytime a ridge of significance appears to our N or NE (-NAO-west), a -PNA also appears. https://ibb.co/BjvSZKk These blocking patterns have emptied out to some really warm global warmth, felt over the East coast. This could possibly be a hot pattern by mid-May. https://ibb.co/Mgh4tQ8

I just think this is amazing. We probably aren't going to get a cold Winter. https://ibb.co/9Vsw203 [NAO theorum]

Expect a good window for ENSO warming May 10-12. I want to see SOI/NOI shift stronger if we are going to go stronger. Here was 1966. https://ibb.co/L04dXDX It was colder everywhere, I think we are heading toward a hotter summer 1965 https://ibb.co/5xLqwz7

DCA +1.8 NYC +1.8 BOS +1.8 ORD +2.0 ATL +2.0 IAh +1.5 DEN +2.0 PhX +2.0 SEA +2.4

I've never heard of Ron Paul. A lot of guys are out of touch, addiction to numbers.

Every time we get a -NAO block, a -PNA of validity and strength develops/new model trend, everytime. https://ibb.co/BtkQrPH Eventually someone will discuss it with me muahahaha

Look at this, just constant development of -PNA and/or +EPO with regards to all and any -NAO blocks, strength.. https://ibb.co/BtkQrPH These are model trends

Big deal https://ibb.co/52JLZG3 https://ibb.co/zh1Pxpw We'll probably see more like this in the next 10-20 years.

I've seen so many things move just to balance out the equation in the last 2-3 years.... https://ibb.co/ySJCrTy (Predicted all kind of things with the theorem, Dec +PNA next year, Feb, March -PNA this year, etc..)

Almost May now.. and we have a June "ENSO cooling" in this cycle that we may come up against. I think we are seeing a reflection of global max, that's it. Although it is a little unique, and should even out to maybe a Moderate event. https://ibb.co/XbQ3gWj

Yeah, -PNA not really breaking. There is some GOA Low signal on LR models, but 1) trend continues for more -PNA as we get closer 2) -NAO cap remains in place, we never trend more -NAO, somewhat consistent +NAO decadal cycle. This tells me that the same patterns that we have seen since 2013, 2016, 2019 and lately continue to hold.. There is a Global warming trend, and Nino 1+2 seems to point and match that right now imo.(We have seen a lot of Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 volatility since year 2000.)

For how warm Nino 1+2 is, the N. and S. Hemisphere are just that cold. https://ibb.co/1Z8T76P (reaching about the same SD happening (combo of both areas), adjusting for global warmth)

Now we are looking at constant +PNA. Look for things to get better in the El Nino-world.

Today's warmth is a 5-6SD happening, as we have a -WPO, -NAO, +PNA. Those vs the SE ridge is the 5sd, pretty cool.

SOI has some relevancy, other indicators have gotten perhaps washed out from implementation/usage over time, but I've seen where other things were acting peculiar and the SOI took its leading role. Something I also watch is the NOI and SOI* (southern hemisphere NOI), these extend pressure measurements to 30N/30S, connected with the same pressure origin region as SOI. I haven't found anything that has a clear definitive +weeks/months lead but the subsurface. In other words, if the SOI is not strongly negative now, that has already been factored into current SSTs, although perhaps you could sort out a correlation there. (We had a major +NOI in February, just like the last 6 February's.. so trends may be somewhat the same through May/June. We would need a super -NOI to break that trend. )

Just crazy that we have a -NAO, -EPO, and +PNA right now.

Obsessed with numbers is wierd. But everyone is disconnected these days...

Yeah, imagine like 3 blizzards piled up on top of each other. we would have 70" of snow! That was disheartening because even though the 3 blizzards happened within 3 weeks, they were all gone by the time the next one started. I like blowing snow too. 00's storms have been very wet-quality. I think we are progressing back to better quality-snow type. I could tell that Winter, 09-10, that we were going into a snow drought, because of the brightness.

I'm keeping track of cloudless days, Today makes 2/2. With clouds, I think there is more activity potential happening right now.

Subsurface is warming again. We are probably coasting right up to moderate. Again, after May it's fallen every time recently, but April 20.. we're probably good for a healthy event.

lol I believe! These 2-3" days of rain are followed by 1 good day to be outside, then it's dry again.

I always wished for a culmination of snow, I remember the 3 blizzards being very weak, and I could see the grass days after, because of heavy sun. If it's wet, I'd rather it not snow. We were in a dry snow drought a lot after 02-03, and it seems to be going away somewhat the last few Winter's (dry, powdery snow vs wet snow). Something I watch is the quality of the snow.