vortmax

Yeah, all we need now is to keep the LP east...say BGM to Old Forge or something...

OSUmet said it well on the LES thread...this is what I was asking about regarding dynamic cooling (isothermal snow w/lift). Seems it may happen here.

Lol, didn't realize I was in the wrong thread!

6z GFS definitely a tick east and gets it done for everyone west of SYR

That snow hole is right over my house if you look close.

The LP was more east.

18z NAM definitely east a bit.

Plenty of variation on the ensembles which shows how difficult this will be to resolve by the operational models. I think this will become a nowcasting event.

You have to admit this type of scenario isn't easily modeled.

The only good thing here is that the models seem to be having a hard time with the wave timing and strength. Could be some favorable surprises.

12z Euro was slightly weaker and slower, but a tad west from 00z. Hoping the trend is for a weaker wave as to not hold up the frontal passage.

What was the trend from 00z?

GFS is a little E, but not enough to make a difference. No synoptic for anyone. Any thoughts on dynamic cooling with a 990 LP close by?

Yes, you guys have insurance, we don't. NAM is way west -almost far enough to get DTW in the synoptic.

I'm talking about the low-end probability map. They have it at 0" for Roc because if this thing stays too far west, we won't get much of any synoptic snow. 12z NAM is still coming in even more west....stronger with the wave low by 2mb...bad look for all of WNY for synoptic. Now CLE is in play...unbelievable.

Unfortunately their low-end is 0" for most of us outside LE.

Was written in June, however the principle that Coronaviruses don't mutate rapidly and recklessly like influenza holds true (none of C19 mutations will be "doozies"). Virologists actually compare C19 to the mumps which has had the same effective vaccine for 45 years. This likely means the current C19 vaccines will work just fine for this new mutation.

Potential SSW event in Jan as well could be interesting: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-major-winter-warming-watch-january-2021-fa/

Your last paragraph just isn't consistent with the known mutations of C19. Read this to better understand how it compares to other RNA viruses. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#What-this-means-for-a-vaccine

Either 2 things will happen, I think. 1) Even though coronaviruses are RNA viruses, they are the slowest at mutating. This likely means the vaccine will work for years to come and hopfully wipe it out eventually. 2) C19 mutates enough to change the properties of the spike protein rendering the current vaccine ineffective. Developers will create a new vaccine and likely add it to the annual flu vaccines.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/12/08/944165524/fda-analysis-of-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-finds-it-effective-and-safe There have been 2 reports of allergic reactions in 2 UK recipients, however, they have had a history of severe allergic reactions in the past and both carry an epipen regularly. Don't see this being much different than most other vaccines for that risk group. Looking good.

From genome mapping to actual, 95% efficacy vaccine EUA approval in 11 months is extraordinary. Quite the achievement and sets the benchmark moving forward.

These vaccine efficacies are unprecedented in these short timeframes. Amazing what can be accomplished by people when they work together!

I'd bet Pfizer said 90% on purpose knowing that it was higher, waiting for Moderna to respond. This same under-calling marketing technique is done all over the place. Lol, either way, the higher the better for all of us!

It's not about smarts, it's about facts. First, Great Snow said Trump didn't care about the Covid situation at all and Snow also laugh off any actions the Admin took. I was clearly showing that there were significant actions taken which did help - it's so easy to judge this in hindsight. Second, I don't believe his Admin took the "bare minimum" (however you define 'bare minimum) of actions during this pandemic, at all. Third, I agreed it would be nice if his words better aligned to his actions, but that's just who he is - very unpolitical. If his actions actually aligned to some of his quotes, I agree things would've been much, much worse. Yet they didn't, so his words were just words - unwise at times, but just words. The real point in all of this is that there's a crazed focus on what he's said, but not what he's actually done.