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Posts posted by vortmax

  1. Hoping to see some nighttime elevated convection with the passage of the warm front. KBUF doesn't seem too impressed.

    It will be very muggy tonight as a well established southerly flow
    ahead of an approaching cold front advects in lower 70s dewpoints
    across our region. Temps will remain very warm with lows in the low
    to mid 70s, warmest Niagara Frontier to St. Lawrence River valley.
    Convection chances tonight are dependent on upstream trends.
    Not very confident in any one solution based on how models have
    performed since last night. In general the models were too far
    north and west with convection last night and are similar today.
    With that in mind and since warm front will be north of here
    allowing for ample elevated instability to settle across along
    with a low-level jet in place, made sure to have at least chance
    pops this evening over western NY and northern North Country,
    then blended this with going forecast chancy pops over from
    western NY to North Country later tonight. Better chances for
    storms tonight *likely* will remain just north of our area
    across southern Ontario and southern Quebec along advancing warm
    front and where stronger temp/moisture advection are present.
    It will be a nowcasting type of scenario though.
  2. 44 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

    Meso models actually did really well with the Rochester and fingerlakes area.  Almost nailed them to a T.  Not too shabby.  I thankfully got .45" of rain which is better than nothing.  UR must have gotten almost 2 inches and some small hail.  

    We only got .06" easy of you. The line split around eastern Monroe cty. Interesting. 

  3. 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

    Yeah this is unusual.  Marine layer is apparently not in play right now.  Storms are way further West than any Meso model had them.  I expect outflow from that first batch of storms will blow up something huge over the Genny valley in the next 3-4 hours.  I can see storms in Canada 50 miles away from my office window so these storms are building pretty tall.  

    More popping east now along the outflow...



  4. 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

    Well the boundary of the marine layer proved to be a massive trigger for a pretty high end event yesterday. The damage in Livingston and Ontario counties was pretty extensive. 100mph microburst/downburst really rocked portions of 20a.


    Wow, pretty intense. Totally agree, you could watch all those cells just pop on the east side of that layer, one after another.

  5. 4 hours ago, Syrmax said:

    I had 1.12" rain yesterday, mainly in afternoon with a garden variety thunderstorm.  Severe threat looked to generally not materialize.

    It seems even when severe parameters are quite favorable, the marine air wins out every time. The only storms that seem to survive/thrive are the elevated warm frontal ones.

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