mikeeng92

High: 76 Snow: 2”

89 record high

Mix of rain snow sleet and thunder

Mix of snow rain sleet and thunder

Its trying

What I mean by maximize our chances is the models over the past couple days that gave Central VA the most snow had a fully phased storm with a tucked in low off the delmarva. That seems like its happening, we'll see if we can actually cash in. Probably not but someone in the RVA area might get 4" on the grass. My guess is Midlothian-West end Henrico- Western Hanover.

Rain and snow now. Bands redeveloping over central VA. Will be a fun afternoon evening. Storm is still turning negative now and to me looks like we will maximize our chances.

Low looks amped and tucked in so far which is what we needed

Awesome disco from Wakefield. Leaves the door open for the positive bust: Given how much models have trended over the past 24 hours and lingering uncertainty with respect to how much snow will accumulate farther inland, have opted to hold off on Winter Weather Advisories for this forecast cycle. The EPS probs for >3" of snow has increased to 50% all the way to Richmond with lower (but nonzero) probs extending across most of the FA. Nearly all model guidance continues to show strong banding and heavy rates of 1- 2"+/hour developing Sun evening inland as the surface low rapidly deepens and the upper level system moves overhead. As such, there likely will be a quick transition from rain to heavy wet snow for most of the area late Sun afternoon into Sun evening as the band slowly pivots E. High snowfall rates can overcome warm and wet surface conditions and lead to rapid accumulation amidst otherwise marginal surface temps. Additionally, if rates are high enough, cooler air aloft will be pulled down to the surface, likely dropping temps to around freezing (as opposed to 33-34F). As such, we have essentially two possible solutions. The first is that rates are lighter and most areas struggle to accumulate more than 1". The other possible solution is that rates overperform and we quickly accumulate at least a few inches of snow with high-end Winter Weather Advisory to low- end Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall. Either of these is possible (or something in the middle). Therefore, will wait for the 00z model guidance to see which of the two scenarios is more likely. In any case, at least Winter Weather Advisories are likely going to be needed for a large portion of the area.

@Inudaw More amped storm helps our chances for once? Tilts the bands into RVA?

Banding into RVA

Long range HRRR but this would be LEGIT