Sounds like damn near medieval torture for those who like snow, and a place I am destined for happy happy joy joy. But I am guessing since Johnstown being a mountain town that averages 25" more than Pittsburgh it partly offsets the lack of big ones?
Question how much snow does your area average? I was looking into the Johnstown/Altoona region they get around 65-70" if what I have found is accurate.
It's like this - the analogs as Don S has eloquently described call for an awful <20" winter at this point. Now last year the analogs were very good(snowy) and we know how that worked out. Need the opposite to happen.
Predictably models abandoned the idea of an east coast snowstorm next week. Giant troughs out west are not conducive for snow in this region.
Depressingly Don S has updated and came up with a not so pretty 69% chance for <20" snow NYC +NAO +AO this month
Are the 80's back?
Didn't it snow last last week?
And that rare middle east snow in Iran in November is killing us, always seems to prelude some atmospheric process that is detrimental to winter in the Mid Atlantic.
Yeah i think the last few under performers got them cautious. This looks ok for N&W of I95 and is trending south to some degree. Also a positive note the ECM cuts off the precipitation soon after the change to rain for the snow/mix crowd so may not be one of those situations where you get the winter stuff and it is washed away.
Glass half full
I said better than 50/50 never said no chance and that GFS is a garbage scow. Now if it somehow "finds" arctic high to the north which is possible then it is no longer a rain look.
Big blizzard in Jan 2016 rest of winter was a sewer plant