RedSky

12z ECM has quite the cold intrusion day 10. 30's during the day maybe lol

Days of sweating into my soup are over thank the weather gods 

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Crazy, the returns over your area looked very similar to mine I had thought. Was most of that last night?

The rain "deathband" essentially the same thing that's been happening in Monmouth with winter storms the last ten years dropping colossal snow.

4" rain here in Monmouth. Let it be dry.

4" rain and the soup air is OVER

Incredibly Michael looks like it's getting an eye wall back on radar already.

It's been ripping for the last hour gonna need a bigger boat 

Pool says i have 3" since 18z and counting

Its roaring here, radar estimates are way off

Took six hours to get back in here but it's pouring, I had my doubts but it's a deluge

Michael ending up looking like the Giants here, weak sauce

Thunder lightning and raining an assorted variety of small mammals here

It's only going to take about the next 15 minutes for both GFS and NAM to be too low on rain amounts lol

The motherload is spinning this way from Virginia! Why do I think the NAM is going to be very wrong and too dry for once?

I declared we beat the worst of summer heat in early July too - Priceless last words

11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

81F "and you gotta be kidding me"  DP 75F...I keep sweating. Oct???

It's like a different Earth now. Plain maximum insane saturation and steam bath outside like a damn rain forest in Brazil on October 11th! Three months worth really??? 

Well almost over (for now) 

Yeah great just what the area needs MORE RAIN

Torrential downpour from a veritable pixel blip on radar, cause it just wasn't quite wet enough for mother nature 

Less than 72hrs we exit what i consider the most hideous three months of high humidity pattern in my lifetime for this region. Good friggen riddance.

12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Highs in the 50s next weekend???

Frying pan to possibly the freezer weather coming as the tropical remnants reinforce the trough dropping in.

22 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Any type of trough would be more than welcome at this point. FWIW, I recall 2002 and 2009 having traces of snow in the area, so it's not automatically a death sentence.

I think it's a death sentence when it occurs in an otherwise toaster bath pattern .

On 10/5/2018 at 7:34 PM, KamuSnow said:

I agree, why use up a good pattern in Oct. and Nov.? It so often leads to minimal snow for Dec. - Feb. that I'd just rather not have early snow. One thing this fall is that the critters are eating like there's no tomorrow, fwiw.

One could see GFS toying with a snow look at 210 hours, WE DON"T WANT THAT!. 0z ECM hinted at it too with an anomalous eastern trough. 

19 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

CPC put out their latest ENSO status here (PDF file) - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

They are predicting an incoming El Niño, with a higher probability for it making a winter appearance.  Based on their data at that link, the current conditions seem to mirror 2006 & 2012.  It will all depend on whether we have a strong El Niño or weak one (or even a delayed one altogether where we stay closer to neutral).

As an obs, had a low of 60 this morning and currently 67 and overcast.  Am thinking my "high" may end up being what it was at midnight, which was 73!

2012 looks like La Nina on that chart?

With this October a mirror image of last, Let's hope the winter doesn't follow suit with a three month torch followed by a cold snowy March yuck

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

I may be wrong but don't we want a warm Oct for a better winter? In other words, we don't want snow in Oct. I thought I read something on this board about that???

It's hit or miss with that in the analogs, but does it really matter with old analogs anymore?