RedSky

12z ECM first measurable snow for DC south Monday

Snow in the south before us is right out of weenie handbook rule #3 for a crappy winter. 

Rule #4 We have to wait an additional 2-4 weeks to get out first lol

* Does not apply to West Chester Paul- different climatology region

55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Shhhh, 12z gfs is night and day vs 6z. Full lat SE ridge at 12z and complete Nina look vs epic neg NAO look from 6z.

This looks like that transition we deal with every winter where models are waffling on major pattern change which inevitably ends up dictating a good chunk of winter ahead. Been down this road almost every year....some ya win, some ya lose. Hoping the less Nina look and more favorable blocking will be the theme and not the opposite. Cautiously optimistic. I mean it's 2020, what could go wrong?

First half of December is going to have this months mild forecasts in trouble this wasn't suppose to happen. Going to need a big torch week to have a warmer than normal month(xmas )

Interesting fact is 89/90 was a heavy analog being used so maybe a colder look shouldn't be a surprise. For those that don't know that was a frigged month and a torch Jan/Feb.

Flakes on first two days of meteorological winter, hell of a way to start a predicted warm dud winter.

Sudden stratospheric warming possibilities, potential polar vortex intrusions all unicorns and rainbows today got to love it. What will they say in three days though.

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Question:    Which model can change rain and T's in 50's, into 10" of snow and T's in the 20's----within 1 run.   (For  the 13th./14th. which has switched again)

Why it is the "GFS---I Just Dropped in to See What Condition My Forecast Was In",  model.          Bring it on!

GFS is the dude from The Big Lebowski "what condition my condition is in, man"

Bam out of nowhere the models are spitting out hopium a plenty at 12z, ECM with some snow on the weekend and the GFS slammin in the long range. 

What is it with the weather gods and 12/5?

NWS investigating possible tornado in North Wales yesterday as cars were smashed and roof and buildings damaged.

The worst looking final heavy decibel wave was a nothing burger-odd

Black sky and torrential rain, now bright sky and calm with a dark echo about to hit

* axe that because noaa radar wasn't updating it done

Best severe weather of the season on 11/30 

Lots of lightning, better than summer lol

It's freaking Noah's ark weather in Bucks county right now

Torrential rains and roadway flooding of the mid summer variety.

Now getting dark as dusk out and all hell's about to break loose 

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

60 degrees....feels like Christmas out there

Meh 5F warmer and ho ho ho

One minute downpour whiteout and 30mph breeze in Quakertown, thought it would be better.

Sitting back watching things unfold there was over the top enthusiasm last week for a few days of model runs painting a false positive cold and potential snowy unexpected pattern in the first half of December. Game over on that.

47 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Yeah, I don't mind above average temps this time of year. We got 5 months of rain and 40's staring us in the face, may as well enjoy the sun and warm temps while they last.

Last year was brutal we had 7 months of 40's rain I agree. Even better there is a strong indicator of an early spring coming this February.

2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

^Just don't know why you're freaking out so much about overnight temps and grass growth? Things are pretty much normal down my way....front lawn hasn't grown in weeks and back yard a little. I'll rake up whatever leaves are left and mow the lawn this weekend and be done with it till next next year as usual. (End of Nov) Don't think temps have been so far off that would affect lawn growth.

 

 

My observation is the change to warmth is significant. When I lived in Horsham the last lawn cut most seasons was a little past mid-October say around the 20th, then a leaf mulching run two weeks later. In a cooler region here in upper Bucks last lawn cuts were being made last week. A month change is huge.

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

The cold hasn't affected the yellow jackets, just stumbled across a nest while raking in the back. Went running around to the front screaming like a little girl! (Apologies to brave, little girls everywhere.)

Two yellow jackets buzzing me today one was drinking from a water bowl. Yeah the smart ones that had deep bunker nests have come back out to claim the world.

2 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

The 80s were a lot colder though.

and take a look around hair has gotten so much smaller

10 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

greenskeeper,  you're slipping man. Red Sky and myself have had post viewable for 9 - 12 hrs+  and no weenie tags....WTF???  You better shape up or pay will be docked. Perhaps you should set your alarm for every 2 hrs,  login, check and weenie as needed. This tardiness will not be  tolerated...

35F 

Ha guess who's not getting universal consciousness after his death

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Cecily and Adam:

Philly 9-12"

Lehigh 15-18"

Above average temps

Short cold snaps and we'll have to nickel dime things.

Lol... I think I did pretty well.  Seriously not horrible.  Last year was a  wreck...anything would be  better!

It's like copy paste now with winter 2021, the Schwartz will be the same

Weather World winter outlook

https://pcntv.com/weather-world/

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.livingstondaily.com/amp/3429877001

Have to admit I would pay an extra surcharge just to be able to dine outside in one of those when it's snowing. 

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Sidewalk dining in the snow the hot trend for winter 2021