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CT Valley Dryslot

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Everything posted by CT Valley Dryslot

  1. CT Valley Dryslot
    I mean, this is ICON-level inconsistency.
  2. CT Valley Dryslot
    So now it looks like it might pop a secondary low of the coast of SC.
  3. CT Valley Dryslot
    H5 is actually closer to the 0z run. But there's this area of vorticity out ahead of the trough where it's deciding to place the surface low. NCEP models are a joke.
  4. CT Valley Dryslot
    Ya think? This was but three cycles ago, same time as above:
  5. CT Valley Dryslot
    Now the overrunning snows are all the way down to DC/RIC
  6. CT Valley Dryslot
    Lolz yeah, it looks like it.
  7. CT Valley Dryslot
    1st guess: East of 495: 12-18 I-91 to I-495: 6-12 Route 7 to I-91: 3-6
  8. CT Valley Dryslot
    And snowmap.
  9. CT Valley Dryslot
    Watches issued by BOX for RI and the South Coast/Cape/Islands minus Nantucket.
  10. CT Valley Dryslot
    Be sure to visit Yankee Candle.
  11. CT Valley Dryslot
    Thanks. Not as impressive as I thought.
  12. CT Valley Dryslot
    Damn. Can someone post the indie members?
  13. CT Valley Dryslot
    I don't think a 50mi west jog is unrealistic.
  14. CT Valley Dryslot
    I would say, yes. Not a met though. I think that's a big factor into why we keep getting eastern solutions.
  15. CT Valley Dryslot
    Give it to me hot and heavy.
  16. CT Valley Dryslot
  17. CT Valley Dryslot
    This chart tells all. Look at the GFS score past the 23rd. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/images/acc_valid00Z_HGT_P500_fhr120_G002NHX.png
  18. CT Valley Dryslot
    With all due respect, besides it being LR NAM, give me a technical reason why it should be ignored.
  19. CT Valley Dryslot
    This is promising. Large cluster of members west of the GEFS mean.
  20. CT Valley Dryslot
    GFS, CMC, RGEM, UKMET all really want to hold the southern stream back and go with a progressive northern stream flow. And the globals are having all sorts of problems nailing down the surface weather. NAM seems to be the only one willing to fully phase it.
  21. CT Valley Dryslot
    At this point I'd say the South Coast is the easiest forecast to lock in. The Cape & Islands are a toss-up due to the potential for mixing. WOR is a toss-up because they are WOR.
  22. CT Valley Dryslot
    CMC is east.
  23. CT Valley Dryslot
    SFC low should not be east of the convection.
  24. CT Valley Dryslot
    Hi Metfan?
  25. CT Valley Dryslot
    IMO a lot of it is convective feedback problems.
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