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CT Valley Dryslot

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Everything posted by CT Valley Dryslot

  1. CT Valley Dryslot
    Those RECON dropsondes in the Pacific should be helpful in the coming runs. GFS really has no clue what it wants for the PAC vort.
  2. CT Valley Dryslot
    I don't think the GFS OP is quite there yet, in general. GEFS have been much more consistent.
  3. CT Valley Dryslot
    This guys reply: https://twitter.com/magnameter/status/1486153476895875076
  4. CT Valley Dryslot
    That feels like an exception to the rule. And it's only really for coastals. Never had an accumulation issue with clippers or SWFE unless 2m temps are marginal.
  5. CT Valley Dryslot
    Amherst is always ground zero for subsidence.
  6. CT Valley Dryslot
    96 had a confluent flow north of the border, so the storm scooted east at 70 N. This storm, though, with no confluence has more of a potential to retrograde back into the Gulf of Maine and give NNE some love.
  7. CT Valley Dryslot
    Dayman. Fighter of the snow man.
  8. CT Valley Dryslot
    I like Boxing Day, 2010 as an analog for this storm. But for this storm I don't think H5 will close off as early as it did.
  9. CT Valley Dryslot
    You can see where the coastal front is starting along the Delmarva.
  10. CT Valley Dryslot
    18z GFS for comparison. It's so obviously chasing the convection.
  11. CT Valley Dryslot
  12. CT Valley Dryslot
    More like 40 million. 30M in the Tri-State. Another 3M for CT 1.5M for RI 5M for MA Even more if you include Philly and Philly metro.
  13. CT Valley Dryslot
    Bennington airport.
  14. CT Valley Dryslot
    I would say that anyone S&E of DDH is likely to see at least a moderate event.
  15. CT Valley Dryslot
    FWIW, I was just doing some reading, and apparently the plan is for NCEP to retire the NAM in favor of an FV3-based meso model in the near future.
  16. CT Valley Dryslot
    A 30mi jog west is still possible.
  17. CT Valley Dryslot
    Last I saw hi he was on AccuWx.
  18. CT Valley Dryslot
    BOX has learned nothing since the Juno snow map fiasco. I actually wonder if that map isn't just a GFS clown map.
  19. CT Valley Dryslot
    Let's all leave a spoon under our pillows and wear our PJs inside out from now until Saturday. For good juju
  20. CT Valley Dryslot
    Old data. We toss.
  21. CT Valley Dryslot
    That was actually one of the more "western" GFS solutions. Most have been further east than this.
  22. CT Valley Dryslot
    This isn't too far off from the BM.
  23. CT Valley Dryslot
    So the NAM/GFS are very similar @ 84, but the surface is different. GFS may be chasing the convection.
  24. CT Valley Dryslot
    Watches by 12z Wed?
  25. CT Valley Dryslot
    Probably because it was forecasted on an Atari 2600 and WWII radar.
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