arlwx

WSWs up for SE Va. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 NCZ012>016-030>032-VAZ096-097-201645- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Bertie-Chowan- Perquimans-Suffolk-Chesapeake- Including the cities of Margarettsville, Ahoskie, Corapeake, Elizabeth City, Horseshoe, Lilly, Sharon, Quitsna, Edenhouse, Merry Hill, Midway, Windsor, Cape Colony, Edenton, Hancock, Macedonia, Mavaton, Saint Johns, Valhalla, Jacocks, Woodville, Chuckatuck, Cleopus, Crittenden, Deanes, Downtown Suffolk, Driver, Elwood, Mount Pleasant, Bowers Hill, Chesapeake Airport, Deep Creek, Fentress, Great Bridge, and Greenbrier 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed rain and snow, changing to snow. Snow may be heavy at times tonight. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible. Wind gusst up to 30 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 NCZ017-VAZ087>090-092-093-095-098-523>525-201645- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.200220T2000Z-200221T1200Z/ Western Currituck-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Virginia Beach-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- Including the cities of Knotts Island, Emporia, Wakefield, Barham, Gwaltney Corner, Bacons Castle, Chippokes State Park, Hog Island Game Reserve, Poolesville, Booth Fork, Williamsburg, Franklin, Carrsville, Lees Mill, Benns Church, Bethel Church, Carrollton, Lawson, Longview, Downtown Norfolk, Ghent, Norfolk International Arpt, Norfolk NAS, Norview, Ocean View, Wards Corner, Back Bay, Bayside, Cape Henry, Dam Neck, Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge, Grafton, Tabb, Beaconsdale, Denbigh, Fort Eustis, Hilton Village, Lee Hall, Menchville, Newport News, Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill, Grand View, Hallwood, Hampton, and Langley AFB 336 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed rain and snow, changing to all snow. Snow may be moderate to heavy at times this evening. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday.

DCA did hit 32 at 2.52 am on 9 Nov.

It'll be close. Right now NWS forecasts DCA to hit 33 at midnight, 2 at 3 am on 9 Nov.

If I had gone with my guesstimate of climo…. BWI//IAD Halloween DCA/RIC Veterans Day I might be slightly close.

As of 554 am, RIC hit 33 degrees. Let's see what the 754 6-hour measurement shows.

GFS is claiming next freeze chances for DCA and RIC start next weekend, with a strong likelihood of freezing by the middle of the following week. That said, it IS the GFS...

The 6 hour obs list at 7:54 said BWI was max 36, min 32.

Dulles hit 32 on 2 Nov at 3:52 am. BWI was at 33. The DCA heat island was at 40. Richmond at 37.

And from AKQ: (snip) .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Thursday... Sunny and much cooler Fri with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Around 60 is possible near the coast. Expect breezy conditions in the morning, but winds will decrease by afternoon as the high builds in and the pres gradient relaxes. Cool high pres will bring the coldest night of the season to date Fri night/Sat morning. Lows around freezing (well) inland...m-u30s central to lower to mid 40s along the coast. Potential frost/freeze headlines will be contemplated by proceeding shifts as we get closer. Continued cool and dry on Sat w/ highs in the upper 50s to lowers 60s. Another weak front pushed south late Sat night bringing another sot of cool air and colder temps Sunday with high only in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Thursday... Cool high pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday evening- Sunday night before moving offshore by Mon aftn. Sun night looks like the coldest night of the season (so far), with lows in the low- mid 30s inland/upper 30s-mid 40s close to the immediate coast. Will continue to monitor the possibility of a freeze (mainly W of I-95).

From the latest LWX forecast: (snip) As winds subside tonight, radiational cooling will be excellent. With dewpoints in the 20s-lower 30s, stage set for a possible freeze everywhere except urban downtowns/near the Bay/Potomac. Will issue a Freeze Watch for area where growing season continues as forecast lows at or below freezing areawide except as noted above. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure this weekend, with a reinforcing trough axis/surface cold front Saturday night. Will be struggling to reach 50 degrees Sunday. If the growing season doesnt end by Saturday morning, Sunday night`s lows will likely do it. There could also be some upslope snow showers Saturday night-Sunday morning as well.

GFS is claiming cold shots may show up the mornings of 10/31, 1/1, 11/5 and 11/6.

GFS is claiming next chance for a freeze may be Halloween morning.

Dewpoints stayed up high enough for the airports to (officially) escape freezing this morning. DCA 44, BWI 39, IAD 34, RIC 39. But Manassas hit 30 and many Shenandoah Valley freezing obs.

Croosposting from obs... outside the beltway threat for the 19th; Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Stafford- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Falmouth, Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures around 33 to 36 degrees resulting in areas of frost. * WHERE...Central Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and the Potomac Highlands. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

My storm total in Arlington VA was 9.5. I had gotten a path cleared to my car, but now I have to do that and the car ALL OVER AGAIN.

WTOP just reported that (Metrorust) will stop service at the ends of their current runs. (Metrosnail) was not said to be affected, but with totals above 8 inches, I expect aboveground stations to be affected.

Calvert County schools just said they would close.

St Mary's schools just threw in the towel too.

Charles County also gave students tomorrow off.

In Northern VA, only Loudoun and Manassas Park haven't yet decided to close schools on Monday. In MD, only PG decided yet to close schools. https://wtop.com/closings-and-delays/

Visibility down towards 1/2 mile in Arlington VA. ((WHO worked to dump this much s*** on me??))

At 2 pm, I had 6.7 inches in Arlington VA. I got my car mostly cleaned off, was too cold to continue, went inside and around 3 pm it started sticking again. Eyeball guesstimate: ANOTHER 3/4 to one inch.

As of 1055 am: 6.2" in Arlington VA. Intellicast showed some pink for a while just to my south, but then it turned blue again.

5.7" in Arlington VA.

The latest from LWX: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast is largely on track this morning as surface low moves eastward from Tennessee and redevelops along the North Carolina coastline before moving east-northeastward and out to sea tonight. At the same time, the upper level trough will close off this afternoon and track overhead this evening. Widespread light to moderate snow is being observed this morning with generally 2-4" already reported across the area as of 3 AM. Continued light to moderate snow, with occasional heavier bursts, is expected through today for much of the region as isentropic lift and upper level forcing persist through the day, with a couple exceptions. Drier air will work into portions of northern/western MD and eastern WV after sunrise, and this will curtail snow amounts/intensity. Additionally, warmer air will push northward into portions of central VA and southern MD, introducing sleet/rain/freezing rain to that region heading into Sunday morning. Between these areas the most significant amounts are expected to occur. Models are also indicating that a deformation band may occur again late this afternoon and evening as the upper level low traverses, and this is currently progged to occur near the I-95 corridor, with the localized highest amounts likely where this sets up. Total snowfall amounts expected to range from 6-10" across the DC metro area and across much of northern VA, tapering to 4-7" north towards the PA/MD border where drier air will cut down on amounts, and 4-8" towards southern MD and central VA near Spotsylvania/Orange/Albemarle where mixing occurs. In these areas, a light glaze to up to a tenth of an inch of ice is also forecast. Snow will then taper off and end during the overnight hours. Highs today generally 28-35F, with lows tonight in the 20s. &&