jwilson

I know there have been discussions of a "warm" signal, but honestly I don't see anything to indicate we're heading into a prolonged or significant torch season. It is more like moderate temperatures, normal to just slightly above, for a few days at most. I believe all the models are on board with a west based -NAO at this point, and even though that exists in the volatile mid-to-long range, consensus makes me a bit more confident. Ironically, we don't really want a weakened (and potentially white) storm this weekend. We'd be better off getting an over-amped lakes cutter to set the table for next week where the potential exists for something more significant. The GFS has this evolution while the Euro does not. Of course the Euro doesn't give us a whole lot of anything, anyway. Because the pattern is active and in transition, I don't feel particularly strong about any individual storm signals or solutions beyond 3 days. We might have to wait for a surprise. While that's not as satisfying as tracking something longer term, we're in a better position than if things were cold and dry. We've favored cold mostly and have energy consistently arriving.

Hey I heard you guys like snow holes.

I'd say put all of PA under one subforum, but I realize the climates are diverse and it certainly isn't a perfect fit. We all have our "IMBY" preferences and microclimates. Central PA and Western PA only have one thread each and for some reason are lumped in with Upstate New York. That part doesn't make a ton of sense, either. Would Upstate NY (which I assume includes Western NY) fit in better with the NYC forum, making separate NY and PA regions? NJ can remain split - north going to NY and south going to PA. DE could perhaps also split - north into PA and south into Mid-Atlantic. As someone that has lived in three of the four corners of PA, I can attest there are considerable differences. Nonetheless, since all the regions are small on their own, maybe it would be worth it to combine them all into one moderately sized discussion pool? I like following what is happening all over PA and having to jump between forums is somewhat an inconvenience, albeit a very minor one.

Seems like one of those where the typical north trend won't happen because it would actually benefit us. If it doesn't work out, after some more 50 degree rain on Saturday, the system next Monday could lend itself to a quick thump. Everything in this current pattern is fast moving. Doesn't allow for much major snow but we could score a respectable thump at some point. It certainly doesn't seem like a shut-out pattern (at least not for everyone, never can be too sure).

It is still early - too early, really - to talk about a potential storm next weekend, but my initial concern would be too westward of a track, leading to warm tongue concerns. A strong CAD signature isn't relevant west of the mountains. If it was the height of winter with deep cold maybe I'd feel otherwise. December is a bit more marginal.

Most of the forecasts I've seen are calling for snow in the middle and peak of winter, but the book-ends may be mild and undesirable for snow lovers. If January comes and goes and we're still below average, only then will I get uncomfortable. For now the lack of snow is merely mild disappointment.

Just what we want and expect to see on December 1st. Severe thunderstorms. Oh, we're not in the southern hemisphere?

I'd be happy with an inch, but it looks to dry out as the last one did. I'll expect nothing. Last 30 years in November: 13.9" most (1995-96) Trace least (9 different years) 2.3" average In addition to those nine "trace" years, we can add four more years of less than an inch received. To me that is more or less equivalent to nothing. 13/30 or 43% of the time. Those aren't great odds of getting relevant accumulating snow in November. Add in four more years with between 1" and 2" and that's over 50% of the time we can't even muster 2" in November, total. Take out those two unusual high-end amounts ('95 and '13) and the average drops to 1.6" instead.

High-res NAM goes to all snow at 3 PM tomorrow in these parts. GFS is a bit slower and keeps the precip around for longer, through 8 PM or so. Neither gives us much at all and leaves a nice little hole over Pittsburgh. Maybe we can grab a sloppy inch for a taste. As usual the ridges and lake counties do better and might get a couple.

FIrst measurable snowfall last year was November 15/16. I think it is possible we can beat that date this year. Bigger question may be whether we can sustain a favorable pattern this winter as compared to last.

Yeah, I get why they were complaining (I think they were at historic levels of futility for snow), but everyone knew they'd play catch-up before long. Some people just need perspective, really. There's quite a few in the MA forum especially that would go insane living here. I can't imagine some of those guys making it 10 years without a double-digit event.

This just about sums it up for us. Welcome to the Screw Zone™ for all time.

The more these rain storms occur, the more I think this just isn't our winter. It was 0F last night and is close to 50F today. The atmosphere wants to rain here and that's it, as evidenced by our wettest year on record. This is a harsh pattern we've been set in since mid-2018 probably. If we're lucky, we'll dry out just in time for next winter.

We're well below normal so far (if we finish that way, it would make 3 of the last 4 winters). I agree that expectations for this winter were high. Things looked to align, but at this point, we're going to need a backloaded winter. The blocking that I think we require continues to be two weeks away in the long-term. Maybe by February it will actually coalesce. I'm hoping we don't revert to a bad pacific pattern or lose our moisture conveyor if the blocking comes together, but that's always possible.

Always a bridesmaid ...

I don't mind transient warmth in winter so much, say a day or two in between pattern flexes. I'm not a huge fan, however, of two to three weeks of the doldrums. Maybe we have once chance as the "new" pattern shuffles, but it doesn't look all that promising right now.

At least as I understand it, the TD can't count until you've become a runner, and you can't become a runner until you complete the process of the catch. If you're going to the ground as you catch the ball, you need to control the ball through the ground (no ground-assisted movement) or you can't complete the process of the catch, and in turn you can't become a runner. The rule is extremely convoluted, but it isn't the first time someone has been screwed by it. If the rule is called consistently, that's probably all you can ask for. My issue is whether they could truly overturn the call on the field. Replay evidence has to be 100%, zero doubt, conclusive. I think it's close, but that's not zero doubt. This is from an objective POV, by the way, as I'm not really a Steelers fan (sorry folks).

I need to move to Mammoth Lakes, CA. They're looking at another 3-6 feet of snow after getting something like 10 feet last week. Wouldn't have to kill myself model watching all the time when you seasonally get what we average locally over a decade or more.

So does that 4/5 day bullseye "jinx" continue? Didn't we have 2-3' a couple days ago, and now we are getting threatened by possible cloudy skies? Let's hope we can bounce back from this and have a better February.

I don't post in this subforum much anymore because I moved years ago, but I still "lurk" frequently (split time with the Pittsburgh threads essentially). Though there is a decent chance this will be my home forum again within the next 6 months. This topic has come up on occasion, maybe once or twice a year. IMHO, I think generally it may make more sense to keep them apart. This forum is certainly plenty active when there is weather to discuss, I think, but the reality is this winter is dead for the time being. Other than the larger "macro" pattern, there's nothing really to talk about. And who knows if we see anything favorable this season. It just doesn't lend itself to great discussion. I'm sure other forums are more active because of more users. I don't know if that matters to others; I can say it doesn't matter to me. With NYC being as big as it is I can only imagine it swallowing up the Philly folks, perhaps making it difficult to separate the two. Eastern is a distant memory so I can't say I remember much about it and how we coexisted. I suppose if people really don't like it here they can attempt to generate more discussion or visit the other subforums, perhaps even the "new" Philly weather forums (though I haven't been there myself so I can't comment on it further). When speaking to merging, wouldn't merging with the Mid-Atlantic make just as much sense, if not more? I think Philly and Baltimore's long-term yearly snowfall averages are closer to each other than Philly and New York (though none are very far apart). Though D.C. is quite a drop-off from these three. I suppose an argument could be made either way. Perhaps we just merge them all and have individual threads for each city. I admit it is somewhat unfortunate the true "weather talent" (actual meteorologists) is spread so thin, having to traverse multiple subforums to access all the different opinions. Then again I understand much of this talent only offers discussion for their individual locales. Not sure if it would change their process if all the locations were merged. TL;DR: Didn't intend for this to be so long. I'll keep visiting regardless of what happens with the forum configuration. Prefer separate but okay with a merger whether it be NYC or MID-ATL & PHL.

Yep, snow is over here. Looks like some heavier returns to move in, but at this point it is 38F and I don't think we'll cool down to return to snow. Dry slotted + rain. A double whammy (at least for some of us). It hasn't been the worst winter in history, but just about everything that could go wrong this year has to prevent any bigger storm in this area. I think I've had just enough disappointment for a year, ready to return to the golf course.

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride, aye gents? It would be nice if we could get a region-wide bullseye on a storm for once. Seems we're always too far north or too far south, or if not the whole region, at least half of it is out of the game.

Yeah this result is pretty much what I expected after yesterday. Storm looks great for ~10 days (minus a few off runs) and then in the final 48 hours, it cuts north by 100+ miles. This is a true 40+ north winter, just isn't our year. There are always chances in February, but at this point the pattern is what it is: I'll be writing off all storms until we get into the 24-hour window and all looks safe (with a large cushion for misfires).