MJO812

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

ICON was a relative 'quick' hitter, about 18 hrs in duration (1PM Sunday->7AM Monday). Had all the key features presented. Just a little sloppy with the phase and subtle timing differences/noise. Not a concern, still looks like a beatdown.

Icon 

This storm keeps trending more north because the high keeps moving away in time.

Temps in the teens on the ICON during the storm.

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree-you want it wrapped up into one system.    Back edge snows rarely if ever work out as well

Its not back edge snows. Its a overrunning events to a coastal.

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No problem for you.

Im on the northern fringes right now 

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The surface high is intensifying over our heads on guidance. 
 

I’d call it Canadian but it’s over our head throughout. Filling in for Quebec..

Great news for our southern neighbors who love snow

Gefs keeps trending north. Not the best model to use.

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah Feb doesn't look warm to me. There could be warmer intervals but weeklies and monthly guidance suggest a near to BN month. 

MJO and PNA will be favorable for cold/snow. 

Weeklies continue this wintry pattern into March.

Weeklies continue this wintry pattern into March.

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The raw Euro 2m Ts have been running too cold around NYC. It forecast around 11° this morning in NYC. The current temperature is 17°.  The raw GFS has been doing better than the Euro. 
 

So my guess is that the forecast Euro lows especially around the urban areas from EWR to NYC will be too cold coming up. So closer to 10° this weekend in NYC vs near 0° on the Euro. 

For some reason the model thinks that NYC should have strong radiational cooling when there is snowcover. We saw this in the past from the OP Euro 2m Ts showing -5° to -10° several years back in. NYC with snow on the ground.

But outlying areas with the best radiational cooling will probably be closer to the mark than the urban areas forecast.

 

 

It will be colder with a snowpack

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

6z euro continues with the clean phasing. 

Defintely coming up. Looks really good.

Eps is also slightly further north 

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

I mean the city still gets 6" more in South Jersey. This is the low end of guidance so far. Need to get this till like Thursday then we can lock in details 

Gfs has snow in the teens. Ratios will be high.

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yea GFS went south a little. I'm not worried about that much though. Models are gonna move around. Just happy to see an intense storm still there 

Maybe a 2 part system? Euro focused on the trailing wave. 

Gfs

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Its great to see the Euro now on board. 

Euro AI is slightly south but still nice

I never seen dark blue before in a long time

7 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

00z GFS-AI well south...on to tomorrow! 

Ukie is a decent hit with temps in the teens 

Brrr

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Snow maps don't seem to be loading but its .75 to 1" qpf

Temps are in the teens lol

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

Really? I don’t see much of a shift at all.

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

One of those times where the weenie snow maps actually comes in handy. Temps are in the low teens when the snow comes in...that's nuts

I remember single digits in a storm a while ago.

Total

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models phasing western trough. Huge amount of energy getting slammed against a massive cold dome. 

Very high ratios snow also. 

Cmc looks explosive