Weather Mike

27 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Could it be an actual general snowfall? 

GFS has actually been somewhat consistent lately  over the past several runs. Here's to hoping those numbers pan out and the ICON is underperforming.  Time will tell. 

4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

That's a good place to be. I could see that area getting a decent snowfall this weekend. 

I will be up there Thursday so was watching this weekends system. I agree with your assessment. Lets hope it continues and also help some other members on this forum. 

6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Hi Mike! Where are you located? 

I have a home in Tampa Fl but also a winter home up in Lake Placid so I go back and forth 

8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Yep. This is the probably how it goes down. It’ll want to go right into Jamestown. 

Not buying into anything at this time as this system does not get on shore until Thursday I believe and we can get some sampling. And I am speaking only about the potential system for Saturday.

8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Storm is gone on 6z GFS. 

It was also gone on the 00z

Hope it comes back. What does the Euro show ?

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Something to follow I guess lol Within 6 days or so..

Would love for that to happen

I am heading to Lake Placid to Ski this weekend and could enjoy some new powder 

51 minutes ago, klw said:

Hope that holds still in upper Vermont with the change noted with the Froude numbers. 

12 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Maybe change the date on this topic to 11/26 - 11/27

It should get sampled by tomorrow if I am correct ?

Winter storm warning now issued for certain areas. I fly into Burlington tomorrow by noon so hopefully will be ok to get over to Stowe later. 
Happy Thanksgiving to all 

29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some monster runs for the GFS and EURO.  Euro looks almost like mid-level banding plus upslope.  More of a synoptic look instead of pure upslope.

Loving that for the Stowe resort this weekend 

I wonder if the PAC jet has anything to do with these recent runs changing and lowering our hopes? 

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Maybe as early as 12z Friday. Kind of have to hope it catches a raob site, because BC is a bit of a black hole between Port Hardy and Fort Nelson. Ideally Yakutat and Whitehorse will catch a piece of it tomorrow morning.

Its not over yet folks. Its still early so lets see if this comes back on future runs.

Happy Thanksgiving to all. 

NAM 3K looks good for VT

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Regarding the weekend, the 18z EURO still shows some decent snows.  It's definitely not as robust as it was yesterday or Sunday but the set-up is still very good.

1) Temperatures at 850mb look like the snow growth zone will be perfect right above the peaks with -12C at 850mb on Friday night.

2) Cold air advection.  CAA on cyclonic flow is a main ingredient.  Check.

3) The upper level lows are in a climo favored area per local research papers (northern ME near FVE).  The only downfall is the lows don't go vertically stacked and the surface low tries to escape east, likely preventing a high-end event.  But still a good solid period of upslope looks likely, 6-12" early guess for the ski areas?

Some images... 90 hour ECMWF.

700mb winds showing cyclonic NW flow around a low that is situated right over FVE.  This is fairly textbook location of H7 feature for NVT.

Surface precip and 850mb temps... surface low is a bit east of where I'd like it but the upper level support should help with cyclonic moisture flow.

Let’s hope some future runs improve those totals some but I will take what it’s showing now. Will be interesting to see the next day or two of runs especially the hi res models 

I will be in Stowe this weekend and hoping for a great snowfall. Love the 12Z and 18Z GFS and Euro so fingers crossed we can get some snow and open up those slopes this weekend.  

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

Happy birthday.  I’m in Tampa and while I lived in Miami during Andrew, I was well North of its major impacts.  This may be a repeat of the intensity I experienced back then.  I can tell you with all candor that I don’t want to ever relive a close call with cane strength winds as much as I’m fascinated by them.  Hoping for a further shift West. 

Funny I was in Andrew also before moving to Tampa.

On a side note looks like NOAA has Elsa AF302 on its way in. I will be surprised if they don't find Hurricane force winds. 

15 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Happy bday! Enjoy it

Im in Tampa on the bay. Expecting some surge due to wind direction and high tide around 320am. Will suck. This storm looks to be more organized and stacked currently. 

2 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

If it's going this slow over the Florida Straits things could get crazy fast, the Gulf Stream is nuclear hot right now. Intensity models / the NHC are underestimating it cause of the 'shear', but shear can help fuel rapid intensification in the right circumstances, like Hurricane Humberto in Texas many years ago. 

And yeah, all the convection is happening downshear in NE quad, dragging storm towards the NE. 

Key West better be taking this storm seriously. 

Curious on that jet stream interaction on this TS ? Not sure why WC wont mention it as a factor ? 

Why is there no mention on that Jet Flow influence on this tropical storm? Curious is they take that into account for their 5pm update and or if the jet stream will influence it to go more east and into Tampa?