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Weather Mike

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    Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

    If anyone is chasing this one I'd target around Buffalo airport area and get here at the latest by Thursday night. 

    I was thinking about chasing this and will get a hotel closer when there is more definitive knowledge on where the most snowfall amounts will be etc. I plan to get in Thursday early. 

     

    43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

    If anyone is chasing this one I'd target around Buffalo airport area and get here at the latest by Thursday night. 

     

    • Like 1

    Hurricane Nicole

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

    1. 12Z Euro is way north to just south of Melbourne! Also, landfall isn't til 4AM.

    2. Similar to the 12Z Euro, 12Z UKMET went 30 miles north to Melbourne! Why so far north? Because it moves NW from 11PM to a 3AM landfall, which is a later landfall than the midnight to 1AM landfalls of recent runs.

    Last 4 runs UKMET:

    18Z Vero
    0Z Ft. Pierce
    6Z Vero
    12Z Melbourne


    12Z HMON is also way up near Melbourne, similar to its three prior runs back to yesterday's 18Z.

    With that High pressure you think its going to allow it to all of a sudden head NW that quickly from now vs allow it to head almost due west then begin the NW track after landfall ? 

     

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

    Mike Seidel on TWC is live in Ft Myers and it's an absolutely insane shot. 

    I have an office in port Charlotte and I was watching on my cameras outside live my large brand new fence fly away and then power shut off. 
    this is really bad 

    • Sad 2

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

    I agree 100%.

    The UKMET, now 20 miles south of Ft. Myers and putting that city in the major danger zone, has lead the charge. The 12Z run is the 10th in a row (going back to the 0Z 9/25 run) with a landfall south of Tampa, by far the best performance of the major operational models.

     Will future runs go even further south to Naples or has it reached its furthest south landfall point? We'll see.

    12Z CMC has it going over Tampa 

    Who knows maybe out to lunch? 

    anyway everyone stay safe 

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

    No Pamper for Tampa.         Get Out of Dodge!      

     

    1664431200-2HP7kWl6k5g.png

    From the EURO for the wave action:

    1664388000-waWd1ntNqhA.png

    Some guy just now from the governors office just said it’s landing in Venice Florida. Surprised he said that on TV this early out with still uncertainty 

    • Confused 1

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    1 hour ago, GaWx said:

     Ian has made it to at least 83.7 W. The 0Z UKMET made it as far west as only 83.4. This along with it being the most SE track of any current model run makes me think that this run's track is likely too far SE with its landfall just north of Ft. Myers.

    Looks like models are coming to some agreement of a Sarasota region landfall give or take 50 miles north or south. 

    • Thanks 1

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Just now, NYGiantsFan99 said:

    wait till its more near-term for nam… and even then, use it sparingly. nam isnt great for tropical. if i recall correctly, the nam isn’t properly ocean coupled so it struggles (especially in long term) with tropical systems. much better for winter systems/noreasters.

    Thank you 

    i think that’s all we were asking for an intelligent conversation about the NAM which I got deleted and therefore not learning from others on this forum. I don’t agree with some of these moderators deleting post 

    • Like 2

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

    What’s the feeling on the ground in A?  I know you’re not but are people actually leaving?  This thing comes onshore south and the heads will want heads…..which is ridiculous obviously 

    People in ranch like homes are gone, evacuated 

    people like me in newer homes built with hurricane updated codes are staying

    most have generators. I don’t and am stupid for not doing so 

    built high up so should be ok with high surge but others with older homes are screwed in zone A 

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Just now, ice1972 said:

    Sister is in Valrico to the east - she’s not in a designated evacuation zone but I’ve warned her that flooding rains will overwhelm the drainage system if the surge won’t let the water out…..they’ll make a decision to head east tomorrow…..

    I’m in Tampa 

    Zone A riding this out 

    tomorrow I am dropping my pool several inches if not a foot and taking furniture inside 

     

    then it’s wait and watch. 
     

    everyone be safe 

    • Like 4

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

    I think what is most notable about the GFS/Euro runs is the stall/crawl off Tampa before resuming the trip north.

    May I ask a question. What is causing Ian to get so close to landfall yet something is causing it to say nope, head north. Now whether or not it makes landfall or not most models show similar presentations of a stall and then almost due north projection. Is it that trough and based on the strength/position is what will determine how close it gets or is able to head east into Florida earlier ? 

    • Thanks 1

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

    12z Icon correcting way west. That was always the eastern outlier so it looks like everything is starting to come together. Tampa could dodge a huge bullet. 

    Looks like impact on the 12z ICON is Tampa or just slightly north

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

    Opening bid is 5-8 for surge.  Had 4 here with a weakening TS Eta 50 miles offshore, so…. 

    STORM SURGE WATCH
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
512 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2022

FLZ151-261715-
/O.EXA.KTBW.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
512 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2022
Coastal Hillsborough-

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere
within this area within the next 48 hours

A Storm Surge Watch means life-threatening inundation, from rising
water moving inland from the coastline, is possible somewhere within
this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Tampa
- Apollo Beach
- Westchase

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Wednesday morning
until Friday morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind
greater than 110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane
force or higher.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
underway. Prepare for catastrophic wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 5-8 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until Thursday
afternoon

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 6 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 6 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation preparations should be underway.
Assemble disaster supplies and know your evacuation route.
- ACT: Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.
Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in the loss of
your life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by
floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an
extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary
roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems
and barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and
stranded.

    Bayshore Blvd will be under water for sure. I'm in sunset park zone A so will see how high the water comes as I am very close to the bay. 

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Prospero said:

    Not looking good for Tampa Bay. Our home is five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay at about 15ft elevation. We are not considered in a flood zone, but a 15 foot storm surge is not impossible.

    Yea woke up to a hurricane watch and I’m sure evacuations will be next for some of us. 06Z ICON still has it coming into the greater Tampa area. 

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

    It does have a lot more members TPA south and reintroduced Ft Myers. But it also added California evidently. 

    TPA already closing schools Tuesday and Wednesday and talking about evacuations for certain areas starting late tomorrow 

    Favoring that Euro track 

    • Like 1
    • Sad 1
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