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Weather Mike

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    Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Baum said:

    on cue:

    A SOMEWHAT   
    WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WITH LESS-ROBUST  
    PHASING OCCURRING WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE UPPER  
    TROUGH. SOME SPREAD REMAINS IN THE DETAILS OF COURSE, THOUGH THE   
    GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS DISTANCE IS FOR A WEAKER SURFACE LOW   
    PASSING OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. 

    12z GFS really made some big changes to support that compared to 00 and 6z

    Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    On 12/13/2022 at 5:25 PM, BuffaloWeather said: 
    .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Significant lake effect snow becoming more likely this weekend
off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario...

Confidence is continuing to grow that there will be a round of
significant lake effect snow off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
this weekend. The more impactful snowfall will likely be focused
from the Buffalo southtowns into the western Southern Tier and
across the Tug Hill region. Still a little bit earlier, but the
current thinking would place the city of Buffalo and the city of
Watertown OUT of the axis of the more SIGNIFICANT snowfall.

Deepening low pressure across eastern New England by Friday night
will move up the New England coastline during the weekend. This
will draw gradually colder air into the region Friday night in the
wake of the occluded frontal boundary. The incoming air aloft should
grow cold enough to support a lake response starting later Friday
night with a band of lake effect snow expected to begin
east/northeast of Lake Erie. Widespread synoptic snows associated
with the coastal low will continue across north central New York.

The synoptic snows across north central New York will gradually wind
down Saturday, leaving the focus for the remainder of the weekend on
the potential for heavy lake effect snow. The airmass coming across
the lakes will continue to grow colder with time as 850 mb
temperatures eventually drop down to -10C to -12C range as deep
synoptic moisture remains in place. This should easily support
heavy lake effect off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

At this forecast range, there does seem to be a general overall
model support for an initial southwest flow bringing the potential
for the heaviest lake snows to organized to the northeast of the
lakes, including the Buffalo metro area and Watertown. However, this
is most likely occur for a relatively short duration, generally in
the Saturday into Saturday evening time frame. The coldest air would
have yet to arrive by this time, so the intensity of the lake effect
snow bands are a bit uncertain. Nonetheless, this would be the most
favorable time frame for the Buffalo metro area and Watertown to
receive the heaviest snowfall.

Trough moving through the region Saturday night will bring the
coldest air in its wake, but also veer steering winds more westerly
(about 260 degrees) and send the heaviest lake snows southward and
place the orientation of the heaviest lake snow off Lake Erie south
of Buffalo into the Southern Tier and eventually more on the Tug
Hill instead of Watertown/Fort Drum. This flow regime will likely
stay in place for a more sustained period of time likely through the
day on Sunday and even into Sunday night. The lake band intensity
should pick up during this time with the potential for snowfall
rates of greater than 2 inches per hour at times, leading to
significant snowfall totals.

    That Miami vs buffalo game maybe great for some snow based on the wind directions off the lake around game time Saturday night. 

    • Like 1

    December 2022 Obs/Disc

    in New England

    Posted

    1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

    Lol…

    that high pressure north of Maine is real, and so is the -NAO.  It’s going to exert its presence imo. Will it be enough for everyone? I think at the moment, if you’re WOR and off the immediate coast, you’re in the game at least. Let’s see how the rest of 12z goes.  

    As it stands currently with obvious changes that could occur over the next several days. If I were to chase the best chances for powder would I be better off going to Maine (Sugarloaf) or Vermont (Mount Snow) ?

    thanks 

    December 2022 Obs/Disc

    in New England

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

    So give it to us. Who thinks this this storm is over for anywhere south of Vermont? 

    Or.. Who thinks we still have a shot. 

    Discuss.  

    any snow maps from the recent Euro ?

    Tring to decide to snowboard somewhere in Vermont or Maine to chase this powder  

    December 2022 Obs/Disc

    in New England

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    actually ...I think you are backward on this analysis.   The point to point comparison looks like the 00z was more E

    Any more update on the Euro now that it’s done running compared to 12z GFS ? 
     

    • Like 1
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