Jonesy56

Luka!! What a gritty 4th quarter effort from your mavs there.. sheesh.. statement win. .

It's crazy looking at the differences between the parent NAM and 3km version in central Mass, CT.... A 3 foot discrepancy, yeeesh.

I think this was actually remarkably well modeled here in the Capital region (outside of some stingy NAM runs).. Mesos even at range consistently showed onset around 5 pm and changing to sleet between 9-10 pm w/ accumulations in the 4-5 inch range… that’s exactly what has happened here a few miles NE of hbg.. and looking back to global OPs runs from Weds, I think they were pretty good at nailing the upper-levels and general progression/timing.. certainly never budged off of the atypical inland track idea that resulted in our widespread taintage followed by dryslot.. no complaints here!! Glad everyone seems to have gotten something decent out of this fickle beast! Felt like we were tracking this one for a month. .

Deleted mine, yours was better sans Finkenbinder standing in the way. Agreed, a little surprised they put that out tonight.. not outlandish, but 72 hours out.. Chuck Rhodes would never!

“Excuse me sir, there’s been a little problem in the cockpit.” “the cockpit?!! What is it?!” “It’s the little room at the front of the airplane where the pilot sits but that’s not important right now” Agreed, never gets old to me either… can’t believe Nielsen’s been gone over a decade. .

32 blown saves now for the Phillies.. 2 off the Rockies '04 record of 34 in a season... 17 games to go.. we got this!

https://twitter.com/dougkammerer/status/1433253581856067585?s=20

Fascinating storm from it's evolution in the Gulf all the way through tonight.. Some amazing statistical anomalies to sort through in the days ahead. Tomer Burg on Twitter has been posting some of the insane numbers from NJ tonight. 7-8" in 3 hours.. That level of flash-flooding at night in a heavily populated corridor doesn't bode well.

It looks like MDT up to 6.52 as of 8 PM moving past day 1 of Agnes for the 3rd spot all time. .

I’m seeing mdt @ 5.59 since midnight as of 5 pm. I think they have a shot at moving up to # 4 or even 3 if the last hurrah holds together.. man the winds really have kicked up here in the last hour. .

Holy hell Euro.... Indeed, feeling like the heart of winter tracking with substantial model divergence inside of 48 hours.

Looks like rain will not be an issue based on radar. Give a shout and a wave if you see a dude in a timberline lodge hat. Here with the Mrs.. enjoy the show! .

It’s been a deluge here for the last 45 minutes ~6 miles East of you in colonial park.. I’m trying to get out to run some errands but every time it seems like it’s about to let up another intense downpour ensues.. a lot of vivid lightning too.. dog not enjoying the fireworks. .

HRRR was on the money w/ that line. Yowza. .

We’re getting shellacked in Linglestown.. power went out 20 minutes ago, 1 AM estimate from PPL for restoration… a lot of trees down too.. stay safe! .

Well.... 4 years ago at this time Capital City airport was sitting at 80 degrees, and 3 years ago they hit 83 on Feb 21st... talk about snowpack killer... felt terrible for Ski Roundtop... and yet, both years there was sweet redemption on the mountain in March. Lets do it again!

Beautiful scene in Linglestown this morn.. man, this hobby is a constant reminder of how expectations determine perception of events.. yesterday at this time, I was staring to 2.5 inches of fresh snowfall and feeling a bit disappointed.. this morning I go out and measure 2.5 inches of additional snowfall overnight and I’m giddy... my irrational snow-weenie mind on full display the last 24 hours. .

Yea!! High fluff factor, huge flakes for past 20 minutes.. pleasantly surprised. .

Amen.. 12z has kept us in the game.

For as feast or famine as its felt around here in recent years, this is now the 5th double-digit snowfall for MDT in the last 5 years. Jan 2016 Mar 2017 Mar 2018 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Not to mention the surprise pre-Thanksgiving storm in 2018 where MDT picked up 9" and we had over 10" here a little further north of Harrisburg prior to sleet onset. Crazy times.

Back to heavy snow in Linglestown, now with wind gusts mixing in..over the 10 inch mark in depth now. .

Para keeps the nuclear option on the table.

Yea, the last I read, it was set to become the operational version in early Feb. https://theweatherguy.net/blog/new-gfs-model-coming/

12z GFS-para is a huge hit for most everyone just to add to the chaos..