donyewest

Still had to shovel our inclined driveway to get my wife's sh*t FW-drive car up it

We got about 1.5~2" over ~60 minutes but now it's all graupel.

Temperature outside is 24F right now which is below the 03z temps on the 00z GFS, 3k NAM, and FV3 for my lat/lon. This is also confirmed via nearby mesonet reporters whose temperatures are verified to the point that they can serve as inputs for model runs.

Total snowfall depth positive change shows not much sticks around.

This'll be a slushfest by the end of the day tomorrow.

Eh, yeah, the 12z HREF Ensemble looks lower too: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_012h_pmm&sector=ne

Yes, please!

Forget which model but one got it spot on yesterday with this SW-NE band setup overtop of me for the past hour or two. The model had me in the vicinity of ~5" and we're at 3" right now. It appears this may keep going for a bit longer so might just get closer to that 4~5" mark. Heavy wet snow too, I'm slipping all over the driveway. The single salt truck they sent out here was not enough, our road (a tertiary right off a secondary split from the primary state route) hasn't been touched since the end of the Bengals game. I can see people trying to make it up the steep secondary road through the trees, slow going around here for sure.

Big ol' FAT flakes! We shoveled too early, thought it was over and now the driveway is covered again! Missed this feeling all winter so far.

Snowing up here in Butler.

What if we're scaring them away by calling them "threats."

Yep, I remember reading that too.

Storm knocked power out to "501-1500" customers up here.

Does everyone love the 6z and 18z runs because they show what we want? The most accurate runs are 00z and 12z. 6z and 18z runs are not to be trusted, as in, shouldn't even post them.

12.5F above average for Jan 2023 so far. Bets on where it'll end up? Dec 2022 was only -0.7F with the cold snap. Nov 2022 was +1.7F. Saw this tweet and don't think I'll be able to cope, let alone reach a level of zen, about snow this winter.

This is how we get more snow in spring than in winter. Spring snows aren't enjoyable because they don't last, they are inconvenient at best.

Exactly what I would expect from a late March/early spring day.

I'm driving to the mid-west for Christmas, probably before the blizzard hits, hope it snows a little here for when we get back!

Sounds/reads like it's going to be a deep trough: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html We get all the cold but all the moisture will ride the edges. Lake effect and clippers only way up north on the Lakes.

I'll be honest, I'm a bit worried being up here in Butler. But KPIT uses like 15% hope in their winter precip calculations or something so could turn out to be a bust even north of the city.

It was more a rhetorical question about how we get dry cold or wet warm during winter. The CPC looked promising with colder and wetter but took a hard left towards colder and drier.

A. Cold and dry B. Warm and wet Pick A or B.

Really could've used some of that rain up here around Butler proper. Past few weeks all the systems leave a hole right on top of us, at least 1-2" below normal according to AHPS, hits Slippery Rock and Cranberry/Mars. Don't want it to flood or get it all at once but I've been trying to dig a drainage ditch and hammer a clothesline spike into the ground but the dirt is hard as a rock. All the grass I started in the spring is dead and gone, only dirt spots remain...can't win around here with this rainfall.

Crud, I don't like that at all. I do think it's interesting that the primary model I can find that's highlighting where the elevated SPC threat is today is the WRF-NSSL. The FV3 is NE of even me here in Butler. Though, the SPC discussion does say these will be convective storms stirred up by Lake Erie breezes, might be why some of the models w/out convective allowing aren't showing much.

Voltage coming into my house is 113V. All the heat and ACs working overtime are putting the grid through its paces for sure. Probably going to check the run cap on the AC unit this weekend to make sure it isn't bulging now. Felt like I was back in GA or visiting Florida with my fogged sunglasses, haha! Oh, check out what the atmosphere looks like on the NEXRAD. It's so humid, looks like waves! https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=PBZ-N0Q-1-6-100-usa-rad