George001

On 4/11/2024 at 1:12 PM, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see the long term increase of the WPAC warm pool leads to this becoming another multiyear La Niña event.

https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/soestwp/announce/news/long-lasting-la-nina-more-common/#:~:text=Multiyear La Niña events have,an unprecedented triple-year event.

 

Multiyear La Niña events have become more common over the last 100 years, according to a new study led by University of Hawai‘i (UH) at Mānoa atmospheric scientist Bin Wang. Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted more than one year, including an unprecedented triple-year event. The study was published this week in Nature Climate Change.

“The clustering of multiyear La Niña events is phenomenal given that only ten such events have occurred since 1920,” said Bin Wang, emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology.

El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, affect weather and ocean conditions, which can, in turn, influence the marine environment and fishing industry in Hawai‘i and throughout the Pacific Ocean. Long-lasting La Niñas could cause persistent climate extremes and devastating weather events, affecting community resilience, tourist industry and agriculture. 

Determining why so many multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common has sparked worldwide discussion among climate scientists, yet answers remain elusive.

Looking to past events for clues

Wang and co-authors examined 20 La Niña events from 1920-2022 to investigate the fundamental reasons behind the historic change of the multiyear La Niña. Some long-lasting La Niñas occurred after a super El Niño, which the researchers expected due to the massive discharge of heat from the upper-ocean following an El Niño. However, three recent multiyear La Niña episodes (2007–08, 2010–11, and 2020–22) did not follow this pattern. 

They discovered these events are fueled by warming in the western Pacific Ocean and steep gradients in sea surface temperature from the western to central Pacific.

“Warming in the western Pacific triggers the rapid onset and persistence of these events,” said Wang. “Additionally, our study revealed that multiyear La Niña are distinguished from single-year La Niña by a conspicuous onset rate, which foretells its accumulative intensity and climate impacts.”

Results from complex computer simulations of climate support the observed link between multiyear La Niña events and western Pacific warming.

Preparing for the future

The new findings shed light on the factors conducive to escalating extreme La Niña in a future warming world. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse impacts on communities around the globe, if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

“Our perception moves beyond the current notion that links extreme El Niño and La Niña to the eastern Pacific warming and attributes the increasing extreme El Niño and La Niña to different sources,” Wang added. “The knowledge gained from our study offers emergent constraints to reduce the uncertainties in projecting future changes of extreme La Niña, which may help us better prepare for what lies ahead.”

This is interesting, so basically climate change is leading to more La Ninas and stronger ones? I remember reading something about there being a link between more extreme ENSO events in general and climate change. That kind of makes sense, often there is overlap between stronger events and multi year Nina’s. I’m curious if climate change is causing stronger Nina’s which in turn leads to more multi year Nina’s, or is it the other way around? Regardless, in terms of sensible weather this doesn’t matter, as either way it would result in more multi year Ninas as discussed by this study.

2 minutes ago, wx_observer said:

Not really wanting winter weather anymore, but you have to admit, this is impressive:

That goddamn primary robbed me of a blizzard. It deepening so much and plowing into Wisconsin was a killer for our snow chances closer to the coast.

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tried desperately to tell em yesterday . Over and over and six ways to Sunday and they insisted on all heavy wet snow , and tossed the NAM. 

Yep, never ever toss the NAM in these setups. That’s one of the things it’s very good it, sniffing out mid level warm layers. 

3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

This is grid failure between you and Springfield... I'm luckily far enough north even at 300' that I will most be SN

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Damn, that gives me 4 inches of sleet

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's fine away from the city

The bigger issue at least for my area is the warm layer at around 700mb. That’s a big reason why the NAM 10:1 clown is giving me nearly a foot and accumulated snow depth is only giving me an inch or 2. Accumulated depth is the way to go outside of elevations and south of maybe southern VT/NH, since it’s more of a sleet setup than a snow setup. I’m thinking an inch or 2 here with mostly sleet for now, need that low to bump another 25 or so miles SE and strengthen (which is a long shot) to get more than that.

NAM improved a lot, low is more south. If we can get that low to deepen 5mb more and trend another 25 or south maybe the coastal plain and lower elevations can get in on the action. Either way, during the first half of the storm it looks like it’s going to be a mess here. Starts as rain, then changes to sleet and quite a bit of it, then maybe some snow at the end. 

The subsurface is already down to around -.8C, early signs appear to be pointing to a strong event.

Gfs looks more north unfortunately

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

3km zips the low further east at 60, prime to capture and also colder

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

That would be an…… interesting commute in the Boston area. 

And then the low plows into southern NH lol. Still south of last run, so I am not completely out of the game for big snows just yet.

Low trended south, it went from being over extreme nw Mass to central CT. Ultimately I am still east of the low, but I like what I’m seeing on this run. 

15 minutes ago, lurker said:

Let’s get that heavy snow axis to shift 50 miles SE

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

700mb is the issue.  Might pinch off just in time for you.

This certainly isn’t good news for those looking for big snows. I wouldn’t discount it at all, the NAM is VERY good at picking up warm layers like that. Anecdotally it seems like when it’s NAM vs the cooler globals in these types of setups, the NAM is right more often than not. 

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Start of the south trend at 12z….by 18z everybody will be high fiving…

It would be nice if we get the stronger lows like Fridays runs too.

The low is way too weak. It needs to deepen to the low 970s.

Canadian is still south

Gfs way north again

If only there was some kind of weather control device that could physically stop the low from moving north. The way things are trending the low will be over Greenland by Wednesday.

Low is probably going to plow into CNE.

My other concern besides the north trends (which are obviously bad) is that the storm is getting weaker. On the snowiest runs the low deepened to the low 970s or even high 960s, on these more recent runs it’s only deepening to the low 980s or high 970s. Given the setup and the fact that it’s going to be April, we need a truly extreme storm to get big snows right to the coast. Otherwise, it’s just meh. Oh well, there’s a reason why April blizzards are so rare in my area.

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks a bit warmer and north again. Almost game over for SNE but it does still hit ORH county to Berkshires decent. 

And of course it’s north…… can always count on things to trend away from snow. 

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Prob gonna check out on this one soon. I’ll give it another couple cycles though since there is still some spread south/colder. But this is starting to get the feeling of an NNE elevation storm and not the more cleanly phased tempest over the benchmark up to ACK. 
 

Gonna need a shift south on subsequent cycles. 

I’m not giving up just yet, but we need the north trend to stop NOW. If it keeps going north by 0z, I’m out.

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

This 50-100 mile shift south we need of the coastal is plenty doable at 3-4 day lead as we know…that’s a small shift at this range. Can we do it.  Let’s go NAO.

Yep we have seen bigger shifts even inside of 2 days.

48 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea PVD never had a shot.

The models had my area getting 6+ until it shifted NORTH! When we need a south shift, you can count on the low to shift hundreds of miles north. That’s the non winters of 2022-2024 for you, these last 2 “winters” can go fuck themselves! It isn’t even winter anymore and we still can’t avoid the seasonal trend.

What percentage would you guys say this has of developing into a historic blizzard for all of eastern mass, similar to April 1997, March 2013, March 2018 etc? I don’t think it is likely at all (I’m leaning towards rain here) but do believe that upside exists if everything breaks right due to the strength of the low on the models.