WolfStock1

Having lived in FL - heavy rain like that is always going to cause some flooding - the water just doesn't drain off that well since everything is so flat. It's especially exacerbated if there is damage to a storm drain, which there probably is in some areas right now.

NWS advisory is super-late - wonder why?

Port Manatee - south side of Tampa Bay - is actually seeing a *reverse* surge!

As bad as the inland tornado outbreak has been, I'm afraid the surge is still going to be the biggest disaster with Milton. Most of us knew the timing of landfall would coincide with a degraded core and transition, but the sea heights aren't just going to magically disappear. Sea height and fetch has already been acquired, and areas south of the circulation will be inundated. We don't need a thick/intense southern eyewall band either. Strong surface winds perpendicular to the peninsula shoreline will be aided by the low-level jet to push the fetch onshore south of Milton's circulation center. The surge threat is high for a reason regardless of landfall intensity and why evacuations were needed. I think the big saving grace is how early it's coming in. Highest tide isn't until 6am tomorrow. Right now the tides are fairly low, so the surge effects will be lessened quite a bit.

Surge starting at Port Manatee gauge:

I notice that a couple of important NOAA buoys went offline just now - sometime today. Maybe loss of comms due to the storm? Those two were online earlier. One of them was a good wave-level indicator, so it stinks to not have that data! Anyone know why? It seems like they're far away enough from the storm that they wouldn't be losing comms at this point.

Speaking as someone with a relative that won't evacuate - it's purely mental. When danger comes - people want security, and for many older people security means one and only one thing - home. It's not about losing possessions - it's about being home in a time of crisis - even if home is the most *dangerous* place to be. The logic cannot be reasoned with - but there it is.

I believe downtown was underwater even with just Helene - so it certainly will be with MIlton yes. The biggest heartbreak there is going to be that much of the "Old Florida" in the area is going to be gone after this storm. As you mentioned a lot will be due to lesser building codes of years past; in particular all the houses were closer to sea level, and also lots of them wood frame instead of cinder block.

Well, to be honest I didn't even realize there was a specific tropical thread! I usually just follow the regional boards, which lead me to this thread. Was wondering why it seemed so quiet here! Thanks for pointing that out. I got that tidbit about the eye size from an X post - I'm guessing it came indirectly from you. LOL.

Nice that it weakened some overnight. Latest report shows it being flat though and maybe starting to strength. 145 mph winds earlier; now 150 mph. Incredibly compact eye last night. Saw at one point the eye was only 3.5 miles wide. Mrs. J - hope your relatives made it to a good destination last night.

My in-laws are hunkering down in Bradenton - in evac zone B :-( They are in a house that's rated for Cat 3 at least, is boarded up and at 18' above sea level, they have multiple generators with lots of food and fuel. So - fingers crossed and prayers for them. It's going to be a wild ride.

Yeah was wondering about that - if a storm strengthens and then weakens - does the storm surge remain at a higher value; sounds like you're confirming that yes it does. This does not bode well for the barrier islands there - Anna Maria down through Lido and even Siesta Key. A lot of that is going to be wiped out. I really hope that everyone gets off those islands.

I go through Palmetto lots when I'm down there. Hope they make out OK. Palmetto is going to have a hard time of it.

Milton set the record for fastest storm to go from tropic depression to Cat 5 hurricane (46 hours): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#Fastest_intensification

175 MPH SUSTAINED. HOLY COW.

I think it's supposed to weaken some - but not much. Still projected to hit as a Major - probably Cat 4. I just became Cat 5 a bit ago. One of the fastest-intensifying in history. Ugh.

Yeah I'd say unless something unexpected happens there's no way flights are coming in and out of either Tampa or Orlando on Wednesday.

So the latest public-facing graphic looks like this. One if the problems with this graphic, IMO, is that it leaves it very unknown / ambiguous as to what is the expected strength at landfall. Going by this graphic - the storm could be anywhere in the range of Cat 1 to Cat 5 when it hits the coast. Obviously a huge difference!

Ugh. One of the things I wish that they showed on the graphic is - what is the expected level of the storm when it makes landfall. Going by the chart - it could be anything from a Cat 1 all the way up to to a Cat 5. There's a huge difference of course!

Ugh. I have in-laws in Bradenton. Unfortunately they aren't the evacuating type, and I believe will be riding it out. They're in zone B - the second zone; which is in line with 14 ft storm surge inundation. They're somewhat inland, but near bayous. This is looking to potentially be the worst storm they've had there, and they've lived there for many decades.

Yeah we have a place booked on Anna Maria for December. Looking more likely that it's not going to happen.

Helene *really* hit Anna Maria island hard: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFHbfaV_wM4 Now that area is likely to get hit again from Milton unfortunately. (just started a thread on that one) My family rented a place down there in December. Looks like it's not going to happen.

Looks like the west coast of Florida is not going to get much reprieve. Milton expected to become a major hurricane, and possibly hit the Tampa area hard again. Update: now a hurricane.

Saw a couple of perhaps-useful sites - power outage info and road info for NC: https://poweroutage.us/ https://drivenc.gov/