bobbutts

Evacuating sucks too, I can sympathize with people wanting to ride out the storm at least away from surge prone areas.

Need to stockpile food and water and gas though..  One thing that people don't think about is after the storm your car may be damaged, the roads may be impassable and stores/services my not be available.

1 hour ago, NCWX said:

Leland NC here. 4.5 miles west of Wilmington.   I think we are screwed.   Riding it out.   Half my neighbors are gone the other half are sticking around.    But with this latest update I am doubting staying.   

As long as you are safe from flooding and have a half decent "safe room" it isn't crazy to stay and experience hurricane winds.

Lots going on in the core of the system.  CDO looks to be expanding and becoming more symmetrical, but the coldest tops (whites) are now confined to the southern half of the storm vs. wrapped all the way around.

Maybe I'm forgetting but I don't recall seeing a storm with that satellite presentation before.  What's the deal with the fingers of cooler cloud tops oriented straight out from the center?

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think he meant the other kind of model, like

What's the best site to get GOES-16 loops/images? 

1 hour ago, FlashFreeze said:

I came to Murrells Inlet SC 3 years ago and there’s been a tropical system every year, Matthew ended up being a cat 1 when it went south of us instead of hitting Myrtle Beach as a 3, there was more than just a little damage, if this place is hit by a 3 or 4 the devastation will be immense, I am less than half a mile from the ocean, at my lofty elevation of 21’ the storm surge could be an issue assuming there’s anything left to be an issue with after 125 mph+ winds, if it hit Long Island and went up the Ct River valley as a cat 3 like in 1938 the damage would be phenomenal, as the saying goes, watch what you ask for, you might get it, at Home Depot there’s a line of trucks loaded with plywood, generators and gas cans, batteries and bottled water are going fast

It's even crazier at the Home Depot after a storm hits.  After Charley I had a contractor/friend do my roof, and he had his life threatened by someone trying to scam our shingles from him while picking them up at the depot.

Good luck with this one down there, hopefully the track stays to your north (unless you want the storm).

Yeah, I burn through quite a bit of gas on my lawn tractor for each mow.  It would take really expensive battery pack to provide that kind of power.

The other thing that would turn me off is storing the thing, I leave my tractor in an unheated/uncooled shed all year.  It's not good to subject batteries to those kinds of extremes.

25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro ENS. Are no help

Tracks from previous runs going up the Chesapeake or towards NYC seem to be lost..  Really high number of hits vs. misses for Daytona-Hatteras on this run with 0 direct hits North of ACY.

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

Seems dumb to let your guard down on this one already- this far out

Living in FL for several years there were tons of storms that appeared to be a threat in the week+ that never made it close, and FL has a much better chance based on climo.

A direct NE impact is always a very low probability at a week out.  Right now we are in the game at least, a storm lover in this area can't ask for much more.

In terms of preparation, if you need to start preparing a week out, better get started right now.

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The WC is already in overdrive in covering the potential impact from Florence.

GFS looks like it does a slow roll up the coast from ACY to the Cape with no actual landfall.  Then an extremely anomalous change in course towards the south where it eventually starts intensifying again, way out in fantasy range for this whole scenario though. 

Registering my official complaint about the temps/dews today.  90/73 the latest obs at kcon.

My P&C says 50.. I realize 49 is hardly different but I'm hoping for the 40's tonight too.

Looks like I'm pretty well lined up to get whatever is left of the TOR warned cell.

The 98's I picked up seem like a good compromise for all conditions you might encounter in NE.  If I didn't like to snowboard on legit powder days I might be interested in a wider ski.

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The buoys off Long Island have been hitting 80 each afternoon. Unfortunately if you like canes in the north east that’s just surface water. So it will quickly mix with cooler water with the arrival of forerunner swells. 

Our best bet at a major has and always will be a track just like 38. A big Cape Verde cat 4/5 NE of the Bahamas that gets sling shot straight north between two highs so weakening is minimal. You need that straight north track to avoid the OBX. Any land interaction will cause the core to fall apart. You really need that intact core to produce major winds as far north as us. The strongest winds during 38 on LI only lasted about 30 minutes so that’s right in line with what you would expect with an intact core.  

I looked and found that forward speed was probably somewhere between 45-70 mph, so assuming a direct hit, a 30 minute duration for core works out to 22-35 Mi diameter core.  Really tight for this latitude if that's anywhere near accurate.

Street flooding in Manch

Couple of good looking cells there.  Currently raining really hard, seem to have missed out on winds and hail here.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1222.html

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

For what it looked like on radar not bad at all.  Worst gust maybe 30.  I’m relieves

Same here, probably even less for winds.. Free carwash was good though.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The core is over rt3 there.

derp..

6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

A friend (ha, a very ditzy one just called.  Just drove from Concord NH past Exit 20 on Rt 93.  She said the storm had already moved through but that there was a lot of "ice and snow" l on the ground and many branches down.  Trying to pinpoint exactly where she saw it and details were impossible but I was able to get out of her that it was closer to Exit 20 than Concord.  Needless to say, there must have been  a lot of hail on the ground since she said the ground looked like snow..

Here's a radar frame where it was over 93.

Time stamp is 05:17:41PM

Couple more, wind got too strong for the drone after that.

Last one looks like it's too fast for the shutter.

Decent storm passing to my north.