Owensnow

23 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Don’t underestimate that warm tongue  

The GFS has rain for our area SEMI and SW Ontario 

NAM is better but does show a warm layer around 925MB

4 hours ago, MIstorm97 said:

Dry air stanks

Snow hasn’t been able to make it north of that line. 00z DTX sounding had a very dry layer just above the surface. So far that’s still winning out. Probably will be a real struggle to get more than 1.5” -2” total.

Yeah fail scenario coming to life here I believe as well in Kingsville Ontario 

not even .5 inches here yet and radar is dying

Personally I think where I am sitting (North shore of Lake Erie, Kingsville, ON, 3-8 inches by end of Monday.

There are more pieces of energy at play for Monday.

12 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree. Storm is legit for Illinois and Indiana and point east including Philly, NYC and D.C. Congrats to the Chicago crew. Although, potential is there for upwards of 2-4" for parts of SEMI with this storm but it'll likely be localized. 

Next weekends storm is worth our attention as of now. We need a true Detroit to Toronto special like old times. 

I am right on the northern edge of the .50-.75 qpf range lol here in SW Ontario (kingsville)

cmon North baby

13 minutes ago, whoosh said:

Interesting that none of the guidance is reflecting this in snowfall amounts.

if you go one station south of DTW  (TTF)and draw a Line East-Southeast from there to where I’m at, I’m near 7 inches and they are forecasting three maybe.

Anyone have the 15z plume qpf means for DTW yet?

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Welcome,I see you are new here. Are you closer to Detroit or Windsor?

North shore of Lake Erie here

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTX has Detroit south to the border in an advisory for 2-6" for tonight/tomorrow. To me it looks like a long drawn out event because we will have the initial band of snow tmrw morning before it disintegrates then on Monday the eastern counties will have deform snow. We will definitely miss the brunt of the storm although our snow will likely be sugary/powdery and not wet.

The SREF mean plumes have DTW at 6.3 inches 

South of there it’s 7-8 with many members showing above that.

SREF plumes for DTW are mean qpf of .62 (9z) and tot SN 6.17 INCHES

Go one station further south of there just before you get to the Ohio border and you’ve got over 7 inches at TTF

What’s with the poor ratios anyway?