Owensnow

I like 3-7 here

Ohhhh this looks yummy this time!  Classic look for DTW and XHA

22 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Really needed a death band to get those higher #s to materialize.  Still, low-end warning criteria snow after  buckets of rain ain't bad.

4.5 here total

wind was impressive with heavy rates but too transient.

1 minute ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Awesome. Thinking we should make 8"...at least

If that last banding holds quite possibly 

Computer models aren’t handling the convective snow accumulations very well

11 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Glad it's working out for you.  You were getting a little down there

Full on blizzard here now

incredible 

Complete whiteout

convective snows 

+SN and more

3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I'd say it's a foregone conclusion.  Question is if we get up to the 8-10" range.

Man some of these convective snows in Kingsville are just crazy.  The NAM 3km shows some serious returns after 2Z

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Down that way might get skunked a bit by the dryslot.

HRRR is the worst case for TOL

The NAM and RGEM offer support for a solid event in TOL, possibly even thunder

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

 It is not falling apart.

HRRR is worst case for me, snow 23-01z then dry, then sleet fest, then back to dry snow till midnight.  NAM 3km and 12km has potential thunder snow after 2z here.  RGEM has snow from 23z to 6z

Just not liking the proximity of that northward marching dry slot

Not to mention look at the erosion in the snow shield already from the dry air intrusion yikes.

HRRR really pushing the dry slot party all the way up to DTW.

heavy snow is from this gonna be further west than projected.

Going to switch to snow here after sleet and then dry slot, then back to sleet again it might finish with two or 3 inches on the ground here east of TTF

Wow

Gotta say the models have been all over the place with this thing and the northwest trend has once again proven itself fatal for me I think 

hope I’m wrong but radar really doesn’t resemble anything decent for this neck of the woods later on.

36 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The changeover is progressing SE pretty quickly from what I can tell.

Per the SPC mesoanalysis, the snow/sleet line is over Detroit proper now.

Have a look at that dry slot headed for IN

I think DTW is in trouble here I really do

Man looks like DTW and TTF are going to be walking a fine line here between wasting half of the storm on sleet and whatever.

modelling solutions are stronger and further north west.

might even get into a dry slot for a time“ according to the latest Hi-Rez NAM

but looks to be convective snows in the tail end deformation area.

Still not overly confident on snow amounts from Detroit and South

7 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Almost out of nowhere 2 to 4 incher coming thru DTW today I’ll be happy for it to cover up the current glacier I have as a yard. Who needs to go to Iceland when you got beautiful ice outside your door

Check the radar in SW MI

you can see it mesoscale low

has an eye like a tropical storm

still SN here and HIGH winds! Love it

HRRR and NAM 3KM keep the snow here till 05-06z lol

For sure came more NW

32 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

 

The blowing snow is getting to be problematic now. 

Same here now, really picked up in SN since 8AM.

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Monroe had 5 to 6" and they could easily get another 3" today. Not out of the question for them to hit 10" in total lol. And pixie dust my ass, after that cement we dealt with this deserves to come in as pure fluff lol.

SN here since 8AM

HRRR and RGEM keep me there till 03Z

3-6 inches here today, inside the north edge of the 2nd wave till 03z according to the RGEM and HRRR

Maps show 5-6 @ 10:1 but assuming 16:1 or so???

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Moderate to heavy snow all afternoon at DTW yet we have about 2.5" of the lowest ratio cement I can recall. Prob 5-1 ratio. Wind picking up, temp dropping,  finally should turn powdery. Roads a disaster of glued slush starting to freeze. Watch that warm nose toronto folks. It sucks.

Switched over from RA here at 4pm right to +SN and awesome ratios right away

3 minutes ago, Lightning said:

What universe is the purple one on the bottom??   

LOL no clue, just like the one at the top, all i know is I have been watching these climb steadily since 9Z

TTF

Plumes back up to 11-17 inches at TTF just south of DTW and north of TOL on the western shore of lake Erie

22 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

It was very painful in Toledo watching it try to switch for four hours.  The front must of have been traveling at 10mph.... Finally switched over and hoping we can still get to a foot.  That's my threshold for this not to go to shit.  

I think we are good.  HRRR and RGEM still keep snow through tonight and likely all day tomorrow.

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Ride the RGEM

Keeps it snowing right through 6z Friday at TOL and MBY

3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Way too much panicking & model hugging folks. It's a long duration snowstorm, not a derecho or supercell that's going to pass by in the next 15 minutes

I find some calm from your statement.  Thoughts on TOL and points NE to me across from there in Kingsville ON?