Owensnow

1 minute ago, dmc76 said:

SEMI doing SEMI things

If we cant get a changeover BEFORE that huge batch of yellow returns to the south, I think wave 1 is a bust.

12 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Yeah.  Models showed a changeover by 4 am.  Actual was was 6 am.     Really like my call for 6"-8".

Mean Plumes are still around 10 for DTW at 10:1

40 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Pulling teeth here in Toledo.  This is the part I hate the most....Waiting for the snow to transition. 

Plumes have decreased a bunch from 3Z

Really hoping once again for a NW correction

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Precip is def further north into mich on the 0z nam.

woot

35 minutes ago, snowman33 said:

Absolute hose! Is there a thunder indicator in that map?

Plumes at TTF up to 12.35 inches mean now from 10.1 earlier.  Range is 11-18 (lots of members in the 13-18 camp

What are chances for thunder?  I am showing some on the accuweather KIWX radar.  Turn on the storm timer and there are 3 cells being tracked heading into SW lower MI lol

18Z Canadian starting to come back NW

Come on baby!

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You can still easily get 11-15 on 1" qpf. It's basically now cast time.

 

I had 1.08" on 16.5" Feb 1/2, 2015

They are advertising 12 to 1 ratio is at the office

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTX upgraded to warning for 11-15". 

Must be hinging on the RGEM

because no other model solutions have any more than about 1 inch of QPF

Just now, Stevo6899 said:

Man what couldve been if the second part/main wave could amplify a bit and come nw, it could've been a historic storm for dtw. Maybe it still can, who knows.

Agreed

Here is hoping, perhaps todays high temps will reposition the eventual boundary?

Cheers

12Z RGEM is better for DTW and Myself here at XHA.

10-16 inches verbatim @ 12:1 or more

7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

15z RAP still rapping (best model) 12z RGEM holds serve

God I hope the RAP is on to something.  Everything else is SE now

1 minute ago, RobertSul said:

The GFS performed terribly with the Boston blizzard. Too far SE and too dry. 

I hope you are right.  Really need that 2nd wave to stay in the double digit totals.

1 minute ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

The latest run of the Canadian model seems to bring heavier precipitation further northwest for the second wave on Thursday...

 

Quickly shunts to the east though, need to be more amplified.  At least for me.

2 pronged storm just became 1 for DTW and XHA here at my place, north shore of lake Erie accros from Sandusky.  No snow at all hardly from wave 2.  All south.

Wonder if the trend continues for the first wave inclusive?

What is happening/ PV ?

Just now, Weather Mike said:

not good for chicago so we must throw that run out 

I know, the trend is nerve racking!

Arctic air looks to be winning the push?

Just now, Sciascia said:

Guys, calm down. The 15z RAP is running!

…Hey, get back here, straws! 

Gonna need them up here.  We were forecast 12-16 per DTW but now 2nd wave is trending SE consistently.  Now looking at 6-10 maybe

yuck

3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

As of now this looks like an entirely incorrect statement 

Check your plumes

LOL Nam 12z has CLE in jackpot south of me.

These models are making me nutz

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wednesday has turned into the main show here anyway. Or so it appears.

There is always the RGEM

It looked great at 6Z

15 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Typical news hype, local news saying this could be one of detroits largest on record. Im just not seeing it.  I still feel like if it takes 36 hrs, it shouldn't count as one event. I hope those in N in, IL and nw ohio can cash in on a 2 footer.

Me too...lots of time yet but looks like Se trend.  SREF plumes beg to differ though.  They are the opposite of the SE trend

14 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

 

Changeover went from early Wed AM to PM now here to DTW.  Models are shifting / adjusting to various factors obviously.  Not confident at this juncture in mega totals here.