Owensnow

10 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

I'll take the over on your 2" call 

Damnit why did you go and do that

850's are right on the line here.  .99qpf of 1.5 is at risk of being all rain vs at YQG to my NW is 1.5ish with all +SN

Yep I think I am done

Rainer and maybe 2 inches of slush

going NW so not too impressive for me

00Z HRRR going north 975mb

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It's not rain tho, this is literally how far north the rain snow line gets

It shows lighter returns, my guess is it's struggling where the banding will set up. But it isnt rain.

But looks like I am screwed here XHA

18 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Do you even know where DTX is on that map?

 

I meant to say Detroit City or DET I guess, looking more rainy now

26 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Jackpot

 

Looks like a rainer for DTX and DTW and myself

Will see what happens

Looking like yet another rain event right on the heels of the sloppy 4 inches we just got sigh.

20 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Bust here in Toledo with 3" so far.  Looking like maybe another inch.  Antecedent conditions were just a killer plus sitting at 33 degrees for the entire event.  Hard to overcome a January like we had.  

Same here, Kingsville, Ontario.  Snowing hard but too warm.  3-4 will max this storm out.  Very far from 6-8

Amazing watching the map just tilt…

Cranking low pressure

Cannot be 982 at TOL

SPC has 996 right now

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta be incorrect.  Where are you seeing that?

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta be incorrect.  Where are you seeing that?

pretty sure the low is stronger than modeled right now in TOL

down to 982mb there already?

Just now, SolidIcewx said:

Gut tells me if it bombs and goes over Lake Erie we will be in for it

it seriously looks like we’re going to get the worst of the bruising down here in the south east corner of Michigan and southwestern Ontario across the lake into Toledo and northern OH

I mean apart from the lake effect on the west side of Michigan

3 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

DTX afd with nothing about amounts. Still not thinking of sustainable blizzard conditions is likely. 

it has been well modeled by at least three different models?

11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Yeah, but its long duration. Hours and hours of pixies

not really

3am to 5pm or so

Latest GFS and FV3 and RGEM have a good deal for SEMI and SW Ontario

5-9 inches likely on .75- 1 qpf

13 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

That low is gonna ride right through n in and bury us

Northern IN, SEMI, Part of OH and SW Ontario get clobbered there.  FV3 go!

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Euro was a good run for Southeast Michigan

looks a lot more like the ensembles

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Getting excited for tomorrow night. Going to be an insane temperature drop as the rain quickly turns to snow with blizzard conditions

 

 

Yes,

I’m not sure what the models are looking at because the ensembles show the best moisture actually from middle lower, Michigan and eastward into Ontario.

they actually have the low track much further east than any of the models?

35 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

One hell of a cut off in SEMI though.  Drive 20 miles and you go from 2-4" to 12".  I'm on the 2-4" side.

Plenty of talk of further east shift from the local morning disco Detroit NWS

Final -1" here

Models did horribly with the placement of the banding vs qpf and plumes.  Plumes and qpf were over .35 here.  Ended with less than one inch.

Spring is coming

3 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Looks like Grand Rapids is gonna issue Winter Weather Advisories.  This is gonna leave SE MI in an awkward hole.....Curious. 

QPF output clearly shows 2-5 inches from metro south