Snowcane21
-
Posts
91 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Snowcane21
-
Not only is it the OP, but ALL 51 members average a foot of Snow for Philadelphia. Who wants to bet the NAM against that? Obviously the NAM could be right but I would not be willing to bet on it lol
-
You state this as if each model is equal lol. You need to post a skill score as a caveat
-
Yes, if it fails this epically on this storm they should move up that retirement
-
The Rgem looks identical to the euro regarding the heaviest axis. Obviously none of us know which solution is correct. But I’d rather have the Euro and the Rgem on my side than the NAM.
-
Take it for what it’s worth but future radar according to the HRR around 10 am Monday morning depicts a band of 3-4” an hour rates pivoting in from the East from Trenton to Philly ... by this point the HRR has already dropped around 10” from Philly to Allentown
-
It really cut back far northwest area past Berks county. Which was expected. The hot zone is between Allentown and Philadelphia. Any subtle shift will slide that Axis around a bit. Still going to be some tweaking.
-
Call me crazy, but when the model with the highest skill score, 51 member ensemble gives you a 100% of getting atleast 6 inches of snow 24 hours out , I’m not going to worry about the NAM and it’s embarrassing performance each model run...
-
Exactly. The low is located south of Islip on the Oz. Almost all other guidance has it tucked near the Delmarva.
-
Of course! LOL.
-
The SREFS are Part of the NAM family so that isn’t all that surprising
-
Noticed that as well. Especially in the latest Euro. Over an inch qpf by mid morning Monday in most of New Jersey and Philly Metro. That’s before the banding sets up.
-
Indeed... quite a few members are not as far west with it. Most have the low further East which in turn drags the deform band along with it. In my opinion the low right in the coast the OP showed is probably too far west...
-
The 18z Euro ensemble is simply incredible. Most locations averaging 1 Foot... when you have the Euro ensemble honking like this 24 hours out you’re about as good as you can get...
-
While the NAM is still living in infamy from 2016. It’s skill scores are atrocious and there’s a reason it’s being discontinued. When you see a model make that large of a shift in the course of 6 hours one should be very Leary.
-
There is No Precipitation or temperature requirement to meet Blizzard Criteria. Winds/visibility are the only two criteria
-
An incredible shift in the Euro....
