PantherJustin

I don’t work for WPC… but imo I’d draw something like this… as a general “idea” no amounts obviously but for that little track thing they do 5-7 days out … roast me if you want …. Just for fun 

21 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

One thing to keep in mind is the radical difference between the way the GFS and Euro handle the next frontal system (at around hour 84). I have a feeling the Euro won't look anything like the GFS due to the downstream implications. It's going to take a while to iron this one out

Very true…. Although not 100% it’s normally similar to UKMET … I’d much rather have UK/EURO ENS in my corner than GFS (it’s gotten better but it’s still goofus) everyone here wants to crown the GFS bc normally it shows us eye Candy we wanna see but that Jmo …. In A CAD scenario in NC I’d place any bet with anyone on  NAM thermals, and normally take GFS/EURO mean and avg then slice by 40% to get a forecast 

27 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The parent high is exiting as this occurs on the GFS which means shorter duration CAD. It is more of a Hybrid CAD event as opposed to classical. It is better than In-situ though.

Wouldn’t the expansive Snowpack to our North create a Stronger HP than models could set up? Hybrid or not…. Also, I’d have to check but as much as we crap on the EURO imo it was decent last two events, Was first (even though it left it) to show further West Snow Accums 2 weeks ago, and this weekend it was first to go away from pure coastal QPF to the deform scenario…. Someone correct me if I’m wrong but that’s Jmo it bounces more than it used to but it’s not a clown model as some here may think 

9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

That would be bad.

It would…. But same song and dance you likely cut 75% off W/E any model says for Ice imo … that verbatim would be widespread .1-.25 amounts no more

40 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am not sure why everyone excited about ice lol.

Bc it’s something to track 

2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Yeah this is definitely more of a CAD favored area pattern 

Feb 2022 Big Frostys revenge 

1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

Yep, signal did increase. I think this one has legs.

Would also make sense coming off a slight warmup going back into a “Pattern”

Not bad for 7 days out WPC 

Im hoping to make it down to 10 -12 tonight but Idk if I will make it 

11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

The ice/CAD signal is huge for this storm. Euro would have been a doozy too but it splits the ball of energy in the southwest in to two separate vorts that both amp and tilt as they approach the south east ridge… but bc they’ve been split they don’t have enough oomph to get a storm brewing for us. That splitting seems odd and I doubt it plays out that way. 

Ik we’re just looking at signals but that’s a much more realistic signal imo… than some Blitzing snowstorm. It’s consistently shown a classic CAD signal in that time period for awhile now 

21 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Looked like 2 storms to me.  Each of the next 2 weekends.  
TW

Wouldn’t 2022 without a weekend storm Tarheel

46 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Big CAD event on GFS day 8

Wouldn’t that technically be the same storm that’s been showing up? 

Is it football season yet? My god UNC can’t miss what an absolute beating man. Onto the next congrats UNC tip your hat, they’d beat the Lakers shooting like this just their day 

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Seems the long range favors mixy slopfests. We shall see. This is the time of year where marginal temp events rarely work out and the wedge always wins

Still something to track… the Carolina classics 5” SN/ 1” IP/ 1/4” Ice lol I enjoy those they stay forever 

28 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Raleigh needs a make up storm soon. I know it doesn't work that way but it would be nice.

***Correction ^^^ ALL OF NC/SC Upstate major cities need a Make up storm soon these 3 weeks have been cool I can’t lie (6.5”) now but I’m thirsty for a Feb 2004, Feb 2014 something where we see it coming 5 days out and it’s just pure Screenshots day in day out on the models. Realistically Asking, what’s a good storm? I say 8-12” ++ but that could vary for different areas so I’m curious what everyone thinks 

2 hours ago, msuwx said:

Prior to this winter, I don't think there has been a more prolific screwzone in the region than the Charlotte metro....especially western and southern Charlotte metro. It's nice to finally see that reversed a bit. 

I can vouche here, I grew up in Concord (Always 3 degrees warmer than anywhere), Then I moved to Mt Ulla/Salisbury in 2014 (They always Cash in CAD the same ones I used to get screwed in) same now here in Mooresville. You’ve gotta get North of HWY73 in CLT Metro imo but I can’t cry as much as I do (two 10+ seasons since 2014, 6.5” this year) I’ve cashed many times since 2014 when I moved while 15- 25 miles away in Stanly, Cabarrus, especially Union have all rained or Sleet ect 

 I apologize to everyone for my greed and basically just personality flaws taking over last night …. Aside from that , my lord is 3 feet UNDER done in a couple spots? I’ve seen a couple 12” reports in their Thread already lol

Lake Norman 30 miles N of Charlotte …1/2” carry on

Having trouble uploading pics…. Trace-1/4” Mooresville/LKN 

7 hours ago, SouthCentralWake said:

Yeah @PantherJustinyou were right. This was a bust for us around the CLT area. Go ahead and give me the stuff I deserve. I’m just a optimistic so I was a weenie. Let’s keep it civil though since I’m a State fan  let’s beat UNC tomorrow. 

Yea my bad…  lol I took the sarcasm a bit too far last night my apologies…. Go Pack 

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am glad we got the 3 incher last week. 1 for 3 isn't good but better than 0. Hopefully next year we get a shot at a 6+ event.

It’s Jan 28th…. Come on man lol 

 Don’t know if you guys are looking for reports from down here…This storm sucks…. HRRR sucks it’s a flaming dumpster… it’s 34 and raining here 30 miles North of Charlotte I was supposed to have 3” in this “Death band” if you listen to the short range Goofus … goodluck to you guys upstream but I’m out …. I can’t whine too much im 7” for a season total but still  

Well atleast we can hope this thing bust Tomm too… would be hilarious if All of New England got like 6-8” the meltdown would be hilarious 

Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

When will RDU see snow over 4 inches in a storm again? Tune in each winter to find out.

Probably when NC State wins a Championship in anything other Than Skeet Shooting

What a horrible run…. Gotta cancel the blizzard warnings now FML we can’t win