Ephesians2

180... 992 Low just south of OBX with snow from South Carolina to coastal Maine

171. Looks like a slightly different progression from the last run. 

Lynchburg, VA

50/34

64/39 in Lynchburg with full sun 

<Wishcasting mode> 

Feels exactly like Jan. 2, 2022!!

I don't like this personally... but most of this forum should. 

The 12z Euro MIGHT be a slight improvement, but it's so weak and light that I would be surprised to see even a dusting from this if it occurred as modeled. 

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Screw it I'm all in. Got nothin' to lose and I'm goin' for broke! If anything pops up in the next few days I might even start the thread! Lol Like I said, nothin' to lose. It would be the last thing worry tracking till' next winter anyway so...let's go! 

2009, 2013, 2017 and 2018 all had March events, and they were Nina or Nina-like patterns. Of course, I don't recall anything of note in 2012 (lol), 2011, or 2021, but my impression is that March in a Nina can sometimes be interesting. 

Had a couple hours of of "Snow TV" in Lynchburg. No accumulation. 

My top events that I remember:

1. December 18-19, 2009 (20" of snow)

2. January 22-23 2016 (I think about 15-18" range)

3. January 3, 2022 (14-15" of snow and crazy rates and happened the day after 70 degree temperatures and I was right in the middle of the jackpot)

4. February 5-6, 2010 (I believe this one actually underperformed, still got about 12". Don't have a clear memory. Of course it didn't matter as that stretch was absolutely crazy everywhere)

3 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

Ice storm looks poss Fri 

Idk... would take a significant south trend on the GFS and a total bust on all the other models to get any winter precipitation into Central VA.

Big differences...

Looks like the Monday system is going to be weaker on the new GFS. 

On 1/17/2022 at 11:01 AM, Ephesians2 said:

Lynchburg, VA 

1/16/2022 - 5.0 snow + sleet combined

Total - 10.2"

1/28-29/2022 - 0.5" 

Total - 10.7"

Rain/snow mix in Lynchburg. Of course, no accumulations anywhere. 

What could go wrong?

3k NAM is slightly worse, but still a light event for west of 95

Solid event for DC and east and decent everywhere else. Looks like a general 2-4" with more east of 95 on the NAM

I might be reading this wrong, but it looks like the Canadian has the low tracking inside the Outer Banks:

Congrats... fishermen in the Gulf of Maine?

The GFS is a disaster practically everywhere. I imagine this is a nightmare for forecasters everywhere from the Outer Banks to New England.