Ephesians2

Definitely looks like an improvement.

GFS says there's still a chance for the far west/SW fringe.

18z GFS looks slightly northwest of 12z. 

Still, just barely, keeping hope of something alive for my backyard on the border between this forum and the Mid-Atlantic forum. 

GFS is not moving in the right direction. Seems weaker and further SW at 66. 

Don't think I've ever seen anything like this before. 

Lynchburg, VA

2/2/2023 - 0.1"

Total - 0.1"

11.1 just W of Fredericksburg City. 

Seven degrees colder than forecast! 

(38 degrees with cold rain versus 45 degrees with cold rain )

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Think maybe that DP is off?  Im at 20 up here...HGR is reporting a 19 degree DP.

Regardless...I do agree that temps are running a bit lower than forecasted.  I am at 28 and the forecasted low is 29 here.  I'll expect the typical few degree bump once clouds roll in.

Yeah, it almost certainly is... never mind. Checked some stations on Wunderground and it's probably actually in the lower 20s.  

31.3 in Fredericksburg. Several degrees colder than forecast. I'm under no illusions that I will get anything out of this, but might be a good sign for the western/northwestern half of this forum. 

The GEFS looks very similar to the main GFS with respect to the trend. Maybe it's SLIGHTLY to the east.

I think 99 percent of people here would "lock this in" for Christmas Eve, especially with the extended period of winter weather depicted on the 00z GFS (3-6 from "round 1", 1-3 from "round 2")

159... 

At 144... 3-6" centered upon the DC/Baltimore corridor has already fallen from the initial coastal low. 

I'd take this for sure, no matter what happens with the second low. 

Is there any chance that the weak coastal low that initially forms trends into a light event? It looks somewhat close right now. Is there not enough cold for that to happen?

Definitely further west at 96. 

I have no idea what's going on, but it looks like it is holding less back in the Pacific Northwest, but it's also further west. Instead of two different lobes, it is one closed off low on the ND/Canada border. 

Definitely further west... doesn't look good to me, but what do I know.