IowaStorm05

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

This time taint stays south tho bl warms near the coast.  20 miles further south.

Ultra warm 2/4/2022 scenario fully off the table now. This is a snowstorm for most.

21 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

That is a beautiful map and I wish it were correct....but, the mix line is always closer than you expect, I am sure many will be glued to the CC radar trying to push that mix line south. Lol, hopefully it stays in Jersey

One of last year's events was looking uncertain 24-48 hours before it set in, with the same question being where abouts would the Sleet mix line intrude. Some of us thought it would get up to about Willimantic. Other predictions were that it would remain off the CT shore. I know that it never got anywhere close to us and decent snow fell straight down to the coast. 

I don't remember what kind of setup that storm was or if it was similar to this. I think there were 3 "Main" snow storms last year for CT. But I am not going to assume underestimated warm nose intrusion this time because in more recent memory, it has not been as invasive up against forecast as was the case when I was younger in the 2000s. 

Could Maunder Minimum throw a monkey wrench in the anticipation of warm nose intrusion potency compared to the 2000s?

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have been burned too many times tossing the NAM. The one time I don’t, I get burned. Go figure 

You were cancelling the storm, and other people were adamantly discounting the snowy UK as being completely inaccurate and useless.

It is still too soon to know with certainty what will unfold but it really does look like a cold storm is coming for these parts, don't it?

Last year my parking lot jacked in one of the storms we got. Somebody here told me that is unusual, and that my town usually gets "screwed more ways than a hoe in the red light district".

Is that actually true? If it is an unfavorable spot, why?

In the two years here I have generally found that we do fairly well in each storm, usually getting a little more snow than Hartford. Albeit, 2 years is a small sample size. 

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Im right on the northern line of uncertainty

Better than being on the south shore of block island 

It appears they actually edited that, and downgraded our area a little bit for accums, an hour and a half after the 1:17pm map. In this revision, the concern of uncertainty was added.

6 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

again...we take, region wide event, nice

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Not as big a jump as expected from confluence, but a definite trend south

Still on the much warmer end of the spectrum

Good hit for SNH

It still looks bizarre, and its behavior is changed not much from the last run. Needless to say what it suggests deviates entirely from the rest. 

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oops saw Iowa lol 14.5

14.5? I mean it is pretty close but I see about 11.5 at my location, with 14.5 being maybe 5 or 10 miles to the northwest of here.

But I'll take it!? 

Or maybe I didnt understand.

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Funny to read that on a 67* day. 

I know you’re kidding but That happens this late In the season 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Last year wasn't abysmal.....just modestly subpar. This year has sucked. Still time, though...

Snow wise for us, this year has been similar to last year. But this year has definitely been colder overall 

I think for eastern CT this year is gonna definitely beat last year for all metrics 

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Think that's 10 to 1 so areas that sleet will have less and the EURO showed sleet making it north.

U have the Kutchera?

Not for the Euro! I just have access to the 10:1.

i use pivotal it is my favorite layout 

That’s a large smudge of heavy snow on the map 

The worst part of ADHD is being lumped in with people who get addicted to Adderall or something like it when they don’t have ADHD, and college kids using it for an advantage.

I think being judged by people for having ADHD is because they are jealous and ignorant, but when you take ADHD medication as prescribed, it DOESNT MAKE YOU HIGH. 
 

Treating ADHD will make someone who has ADHD feel like the normal way that normal people take for granted in feeling all the time.

There is nothing to be jealous of because when you think about the consequences that would unfold if you lose access to the medication, it’s actually pretty scary. 
 

Society at large gives the few people who actually suffer a bad name. 

There is some overlap and discussion out there if misdiagnosis of autism that looks like ADHD, and comorbidity between Autistic Spectrum and ADHD, but it’s not that substantial in argument just because psychostimulants are known to relieve some of the neurological abnormalities seem in people with autism anyway.

Ugh I posted in the wrong sub 

I think the 12z suite is wonderful.
 

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah the biggest issue is snow total vs sleet cutting that down where I'm sitting.  I gather that folks would rather not the sleet... lol.  Anyway, I'm more into this for the general impact to society, much less the general impact to the delicate sensibilities of people trying to get to some dimension of nostalgic d-drip psyche for the modeling journery before it even happens.  

I mean, sometimes I wonder if that journey is more important than the actual storm itself.  This engagement has evolved into something ( I wonder ) that is a part of that "60 Minutes" psychotropic stimulation addiction shit they covered as a problem to humanity by modern technology.  But that'd digressing...   

I'm probably not really qualified to get too embedded in snow vs IP...  In principle this is a "needle thread" system.  And the system is going to run along the "rail-system" where the run lays the track. And the ptypes are 'edgy'  

 

I'll tell you what I have a dependency on psychotropic stimulation that does not go away if I abstain from the meds for decades of time! It is ALWAYS worse to not take them than it is to take them. ADHD AND Autism!!!! I went a couple decades without the meds and it was the worst 20 years of my life. Erratic behavior. I didn't want to chime in but people keep bringing it up, whether or not it was to do with me LOL!

In any case, I can easily believe that 12z will verify a northerly trend, but it is not impossible it will be a southerly one and models will sink down to assimilate to the GFS. Over the years I have seen UK be quite reasonable and close to reality of what transpires, but I don't have the training to be able to know the reasons why it might be getting discounted heavily by some people right now. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Do we really need to question why the Ukie is tossed?

It looked similar to the latest GFS! The only reason you could totally toss it is on account of its similarity to GFS being incompetent randomness of coincidentally being "On to" whatever the GFS is

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So about that south and colder 12z NAM shift?

There was some southward movement of marginal snows, but it put out a very irregular hodgepodge of icy WX

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So about that south and colder 12z NAM shift?

My SOUL depends on it!

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is still synoptically very different from other guidance...it is tracking that vortmax NORTH of Lake Ontario....nevermind over it.

If it is wrong with that, then it's going to bust too warm. It's not "Sniffing out a warm layer" like we sometimes see in these events when they all agree on the synoptics. The NAM is literally about 75-100 miles north of other guidance on the vort track and that makes a huge difference.

Will be interesting and important to see ALL of the 12z results. They will need to be taken seriously but with our luck they'll come in with the same disagreements again.

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The Nam is like a beagle hunting rabbits.

It looks... Odd. It is like the blizzard where it was a hound dog chasing the bird off the shore of Virginia.

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z NAM is going to be pretty icy in CT.

Yes I could tell pretty quickly it is a hodge podge of mixed precip with a completely irregular "Snow line"

This storm in general makes me nervous about my shift that starts mid day on Friday. 40 mile drive. They are pretty lenient about weather call outs for my totem pole spot, but on the other hand I have had health problems hamper my effeciency around there, and I don't have a whole lot of reciprocity bargaining chips to work with.

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reckless? It’s the reality. Tossed. 

You're as cold as ice! You're willing to sacrifice our love!