IowaStorm05

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Should we be thinking no snow or accumulations?

I’m looking at the radar. I know the models are shitty with their ideas. There is no way this makes it past us without changing to snow for at least an inch or so. That’s by looking at radar. Ok so that question is old.

Its raining here. But that line is marching along so it’s not going to stay rain. No way no sireee Bob.

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

Solid consensus on West is best for SNE.

Best? Or just most likely? 
 

Most of model consensus Doesn’t look great and most people have left the building on it. But there is that Anafrontal trait going on and stuff. Must be some reason RAP has retained its deal with 03z, Even if that reason is it is out to lunch and I’m die hard.

45 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Sharp cutoff on the GFS

 

03z RAP

Evolving to where RAP is alone in showing snow further southeast. 02z holds onto that, but trended slightly west.

I feel let down, that my excitement earlier this evening was a delusion

Mmmmm. Anafrontal. 
 

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

See I was going to say that’s a solid NAM run, both 3km and 12km.

Kuchie which is more sensitive to boundary layer but also goes real high when it gets cold.

10:1

It’s such a vast difference between this and, say, RAP and HRRR in its implications for interior E CT. 
 

Sadly, NAM sometimes verifies but at least it gives everyone a nice coating at the end, and what I have thought for MBY is similar regardless. In my mind question mark is 400 feet and up Tolland and Windham hills

21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Going to end up a nowcast deal, Those come with surprises,  I can see that coming.

Almost every time we are in the transition wild card zone on the models like this, we wind up raining until the very end and get around 1” of wet snow at the end. That is more likely than mostly snow and several inches.

But Dad up in west Hartford is another matter and is definitely deeper into the cold zone and I expect them to get 3” solid.

Thats the level headed expectation based on experience.

For Kevin or my sister in Coventry at 450 feet I expect 2-3 inches, in other words a better chance of plowable up there.

OF COURSE the NAM is still ruthless about the situation, but again is consistent with my idea that rain followed by a simple inch coating of snow at the end is the most likely result.

7 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I'm a little late but just wanted to add that >70 dews are a gift from the heavens. I mean it's hard to say you're having a decent life if your sunglasses don't fog up when you walk outside.

Or when you drop your sunglasses into the Orangutan enclosure and the Orangutan takes the glasses and puts them on.

This storm is now tantalizing. This looks like those fun storms where my area is the wild card and depends on exact track. Whether here or Iowa, I often find myself straddling the transition zone from RN to SN

Wow yeah it definitely looks like we will be a lot closer to the cold air for this event than what it looked like on TV last night.

Still mostly rain here though, right?

I wonder what went wrong for the few locations that wound up with an inch. I mean NWS forecast called for 1-3 so it’s not a bust, but so many got so much more snow. Elevation was a thing but not a hard rule, West Hartford is like 150 feet and got hammered. I’m higher than they are and got an inch.
 

My thoughts are simply, some pockets of warmer air and less precip intensity. Duh. 
 

But why tho?

Final measurement

1 inch 

river level elevation in town.

I expect that folks in the hills nearby just a mile or two away got more. Earlier today you could just look up the hill and see big flakes when it was rain still here… 

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

subtract 0.7 to account for grass

Not that much. I was thinking it really probably is 0.6” but this “grass” is very sparse and patchy and beat down. It’s not well kept suburban sod here.

I can tell you, it’s not much snow on the ground but it’s over a half inch 

My spot got the shaft. No parking lot measurements. Hoping for 2 inches when it’s done.

I stuck the ruler in the grass and got 0.8”

A wet moderate snow still falling.

I don’t know exactly what they are going to do, but the idea of regulating cryptocurrency seems like a good idea at this point.

I think it has ventured into scammy and scandalous waters and one which wears a suit and tie. The concept seems convincing enough but the thing about it is, who is using it to buy everyday stuff? Nobody? 
 

All it has been is this thing that thrashes about left and right while people put in and pull out erratically. People lose and gain left and right going in and out of the pot. You just have so many of them popping up, each with a cutie celebrity face promoting them, some of which have silly names even. I am not qualified to take direct jabs at any specific one but I can rightfully say it sketches me out.

1 hour ago, NeonPeon said:

It's snowing now, which for all sensible effects is trivia. But, not for me. An opportunity to say goodbye to winter.

Rain has been changing to snow from west to east. It has been pretty much all snow in Western New England, but a lot of places under 500 feet were getting a rain mix in central and eastern SNE.

We changed over to snow an hour ago so you should be changing over any time now I would expect. 

Somehow I feel like Me and Neon Peon are among the folks getting screwed the most with this so far since it has been hours of light rain snow mix before it finally got down to business.

10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

You were raining?

We sure were! From 10am to 1:30pm it was an icy rain, you know, with some flakes mixed in. It changed over fully at 1:45. It has turned into fairly heavy snow and is in the process of going white.

As is common during a good old fashioned changeover, the snow has become heavier and is just beginning to stick here in Willi at 230 feet!!

Transition from rain to snow is complete now, at least. The transition finalized around 1:45pm

i am at 220 feet elevation at the river bank.
 

Just need it to start sticking 

As of 12:52pm it was 34 degrees. 

1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

It's snowing now, which for all sensible effects is trivia. But, not for me. An opportunity to say goodbye to winter.

I think some better precip has made its way to us. Seems to be staying snow now with larger flakes. No more wishy washy I hope 

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah…it’s been snow here from the very start, and I’m not at 500 feet, definitely we’ll inland, but we covered and it’s coming down nice with good snowgrowth. 

You and some other people are in a better air mass. You are west. But a lot of us are seriously struggling to even change over. I am as well inland as you if not more so, and it’s a mix here.

Kevin said he’s been doing better and he is higher, but not too much farther inland maybe 10 miles right?

24 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

This isn't even good mood snow down here so far. I wasn't expecting it to stick, but it's mostly rain.

Elevational event. Snow level 500 feet, I think. And that’s if you’re away from the coast.

It feels like being in a winter storm out west and you are stuck just a few hundred feet below the “snow level”

Its like being at 4400 feet and the snow level is 4500-5000 feet.

Still a problem changing over. Precip very light. Must be some warm air damming or something here. It would act like it was changing over but would just go back to rain again.

It’s actually raining now, with flakes mixing in.

I hope it changes over quick like expected and the wet base will help accum