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IowaStorm05

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  1. IowaStorm05
    Willimantic, CT here. started experiencing light rain and showers in the past couple hours, temps been slipping into the upper 40s
  2. IowaStorm05
    That is BAD
  3. IowaStorm05
    00Z HRRR at 26 hours out. I see a tiny “screw zone” over what I think is the Willimantic River. But that’s probably a resolution “artifact”, not a revelation of elevational disadvantage and 26 hours is fairly far out still for this tool.. but the focus of this here is that it brings heavier totals allllll the way down to coastal locations... sparking the idea that SOMEWHERE in coastal CT or RI could get action if they’re lucky
  4. IowaStorm05
    I feel like it’s more common in the inter mountain west, and areas in the Great Basin. the most common time I would see graupel in Reno, it would be in late winter/early spring during weak disturbances, where the sun was stronger, and you’d have partly sunny days with scattered quasi-convective “snow showers”. Sun would heat up ground in shallow ways, then a snow shower comes in, temp at surface drops from 50 degrees to 30-35 quickly with lots of graupel.
  5. IowaStorm05
    Will be interesting to see what this does for Willimantic. we are at the southern part of the better amounts in models and watches but we are at about 250 feet elevation. Has to count for something right?
  6. IowaStorm05
    They might be just waiting for more consistency/consolidation. Newest runs are bringing BDL into the action.... they only just issued watches for Tolland and Windham...
  7. IowaStorm05
    I think it’s called “graupel”? We got it all the time in Reno, NV and yes it’s quite an origraphic/vertical motion and lapse rate kinda deal
  8. IowaStorm05
    Immediate Coastal areas of eastern CT and RI probably still mostly miss out but even these areas could get a 2 inch cementing if lucky
  9. IowaStorm05
    Hot Diggity
  10. IowaStorm05
    Looks like that gap is all due to the warming effect of the CT river and lower elevation!?
  11. IowaStorm05
    I wish
  12. IowaStorm05
    So for SNE this potential has to do with how far south and under the wrap around gets then yes? Seems like the Canadian, which hasn’t been wisely discussed has held down pat on not providing any wrap around for most of SNE. Yeah it’s also a matter of position S N E W too of course
  13. IowaStorm05
    Reno, NV has the most picturesque transitions I’ve ever seen. There, transitions are vertical IE snow levels, and snow always accompanies fog with very low visibility. Growing up on a hill, transitions have the appearance of a ceiling that gradually lowers itself down the backdrop of the sierras to its west, into the valley. As a kid, I could tell you what the current snow level was just by seeing the location of that ceiling.
  14. IowaStorm05
    Mine as well go for a soda. Mine as well face it.... you’re addicted to love.
  15. IowaStorm05
    Willi here. I doubt it. I don’t think there’s enough consistency in models up through now and as I pointed out the Canadian has been steadfast at showing rain here... while other models have started trending toward it. it’s possible we could get last minute warnings but meh. It’s more likely we would see a couple inches of snow in northern or northwestern counties
  16. IowaStorm05
    It has... and if this warmer solution verifies One could point out we aren’t exactly in an NAO negative right now... the Canadian has been most consistent of em all the whole time.... I feel like, predicting a warmer soltn 15z RAP looking great for CT but I don’t trust it for 30 hours out
  17. IowaStorm05
    It still wouldn’t surprise me if it trends back slightly south or East later today or tonight. But really nothing would surprise me at this point, but yeah it’s also looking too toasty for comfort here now. But these trends definitely verify folks yesterday who were disregarding the 18z runs as likely bogus.
  18. IowaStorm05
    Yes they are out of sync, and in addition they have to anchor themselves with consistency in their forecast packages against wildly shifting models IE yesterday’s MA watches being issued while several models wanted to remove snow from that area and shift focus onto Maine. furthermore, central and eastern NWS offices has to prepare the afternoon package before 18z model runs come out anyway so from our perspective it can look like 18z is being ignored.
  19. IowaStorm05
    Not exactly promised for Willimantic. but it could!
  20. IowaStorm05
    Just south of UCONN here Was loving the 12z runs for these parts... 18z squashes that excitement, albeit at least we still have a better shot than, say, Waterbury. if things “adjust” a bit westward for 00z we’d be likely to get a few inches.
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