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ineedsnow

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Everything posted by ineedsnow

  1. naw anywhere from the Gulf to the east coast is in play..or even nowhere at all.. we wait
  2. I'm off the 2nd to the 12th that would be a perfect chase time
  3. I'm always looking for something exciting lol . Leaving for mount Greylock for the day hoping the views are good
  4. Added the Eps that could be fun somewhere. SAL doesn't seem terrible but it is there
  5. I'm more interested in the first long track storm potential of the year..
  6. this site is pretty cool.. not sure how accurate it is.. but you can see past humidity levels and weather for most airports https://weatherspark.com/map?id=2460&pageType=1 https://weatherspark.com/h/y/26197/2024/Historical-Weather-during-2024-in-Boston-Massachusetts-United-States
  7. Open the windows and enjoy it
  8. Looks pretty meh overall now though
  9. Drier conditions should last until another cold front approaches from the west sometime Sunday. Still too early to pin down the details. In general terms though, thinking our region gets into a brief period of very warm and humid conditions, but not like the heat we had last week. It should certainly not last nearly as long. Expecting cooler and less humid air to arrive early next week. &&
  10. Perfect summer day here.. I wish the whole summer was like this then I wouldn't mind it.
  11. I had another good hike up mount Wachusett today.. breezy and cool on the top but views were great!
  12. Probably a good slight risk day.. hope it still looks good Wednesday morning
  13. Think I might head to orange soon that storm to the sw is starting to look a little better
  14. Watch out Manchester yikes. Also watch hing those storms west of Springfield hoping they can produce
  15. Just got that alert on my phone.. pretty far away for that. I would have thought
  16. That storm in eastern NY needs a tornado warning
  17. Hoping for something good to.chase later on.. got about another hour or so until the graduation party I'm at is over.. suns out hot and.muggy.. waiting for things to pop
  18. It's going to have to clear out soon if we want to see anything today
  19. Given strength of wind field throughout the column, combined with high instability and steep low level lapse rates, greatest risk is for strong to damaging winds, with highest probabilities across western CT, including Hartford county into western and central MA. In addition, anomalous wind fields thru the column combined with model soundings showing large curved hodographs and high STP values of 1.5-3, yielding an elevated risk for tornadoes. CSU machine learning probs, updraft helocity swaths from the HREF and NCAR wind probs all support the potential for a high end severe weather event 18z-00z across western-central MA, possibly into northwest CT. Convection is expected to arrive in RI and eastern MA in a weaken state, as greatest shear and instability remain northwest of I-95 corridor. Secondary concerns are large hail and brief heavy downpours.
  20. LFG ...New England to the Mid Atlantic... At the start of the forecast period, scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing near the warm front from southern Quebec southeastward to southern New England. Insentropic ascent along the front from a 30-40 kt LLJ will continue to support scattered storms near the frontal zone through the morning hours as rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) are advected northward. In the wake of the early morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Deep-layer shear profiles of 45-60 kt support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. Confidence in a corridor of locally greater severe risk remains highest across portions of southern ME, VT, NH and west-central MA. Here, area model soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3, near the climatological maximum for the region. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes appears somewhat higher. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening.
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