WinterWxLuvr

We will know by Saturday morning

@MillvilleWx you still thinking 6 for Winchester and just don’t want to hurt feelings by saying it?

And likely wrong

That’s a good point. That happened once earlier. Might have been the first storm. But the h5 plots are changing quite dramatically for something basically 96 hours out

I swear to anything you want, but I hope you don’t see a flake. Even if it means I don’t either.

Yes. This is the key. Gotta duh that thing as deep as possible

The euro brought in a much deeper ns feature around hour 78 up in North Dakota which wasn’t there at 0z that I don’t think helped our cause either.

Oh yeah, slap a 150 mile north trend on that and I have a totally different attitude

True, true. The models do. But the weather loves Nova and CMd. It’s called … climo

That looks awful

Also less deep, more progressive at h5

That’s what I thought but then I saw them showing up over flat areas of eastern MD all the way to the bay.

This is very interesting. Look at their guidance of choice. C/P Accordingly and in anticipation, the earlier released WPC product suite was primarily derived from the most amplified ensemble mean solution, the ECMWF ensemble mean. Manual adjustments were further applied to increase shortwave amplitude smoothed out by the mean and to maintain max WPC product continuity. There is potential for heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain particularly from the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic into Fri, potentially into the Northeast by Sat.

That part is very reasonable. That dividing line is the eastern edge of the Allegheny front. It drops of fast there

Unfortunately that’s exactly what I’m thinking

Nope. There were some notable examples prior where if it was the line model it ended up wrong. I remember one to the tune of 20” that turned into 0.

That is so cool. Thanks for sharing

The CMC actually has the ss farther east than does the Euro at hour 66. I’m becoming more convinced that this is a ns issue rather than ss.

Sour cream and onion?

As I see this, the discrepancy is at least equally in the NS. If you look, the models that have this feature less sharp and deep are the ones that differ so much from the euro.

Since everyone is here, can anyone explain these ripples in the clouds. My first though was ridges but these ripples show up in places where there are no ridges

Look at these. This is at hour 66. Notice the sws on the euro, both ns and ss are deeper. That translates to a deeper h5 about 24 hours later. For me it’s all about the depth.

You see this as 6” for Winchester, right?

You aren’t but some of these posts are

Since about 35 hours ago it showed nothing, yes, I would take this in a minute