csnavywx

A year above 2013 isn't out of the ballpark, but I think it will have to come fairly soon (within the next several years). Thing is, we just came off a solid month of a very similar +GPH and +MSLP anomaly patterns to that of the 2007-2012 pattern. Very similar. That's something we didn't manage for more than a few days at a time during the last two seasons. So the call for 2013-2014-like patterns continuing in the future may be a bit premature there. Hell, we don't really know why that pattern occurred and persisted as long as it did in the first place. There is no real precedent for it in the record or reanalysis data. That's interesting to me. Chalking it up to a correlation with the AMO doesn't really hold much water though.

Isotherm, you're essentially making an efficacy argument. But as already determined by the IPCC, most forcing efficacies fall between 0.8 - 1.2. There is a slight slant towards most natural forcings having an efficacy average of about 0.9, whereas GHGs usually fall around 1.1. Ergo, the basic point does not change.To be sure, there's some uncertainty there, but If Earth was very sensitive to natural forcings, it's more sensitive to CO2.

I know the 280 ppm in 20 years comment is a bit hyperbolic on purpose, but we don't do anything on the scale it would require to do that. Iron ore is a billion ton a year business. Oil is 4 billion tons. Coal doesn't even touch 10 billion tons a year and that's a solid bulk fuel. You're talking about sequestering a gas on a scale at least 10 times that? Nasomuch.

I'd definitely put 10 feet as a tail risk instead of "at least", but if we want to discuss feasibility, I think there's enough evidence to at least suggest that it's possible if the WAIS is as unstable as it seems to be recently, particularly through interactions between the retreat of Pine Island and Thwaites' grounding lines.

You can thank Pinatubo for that one. I agree with Harry on last summer. Last summer made me want to move.... really far north. I had flashbacks of the Middle East from late June into July.

There are significant stores of hydrates on the ESAS that are at depths less than 300m, including a few as shallow as 20m due to the "self-preservation" effect (metastability). This self-preservation effect is well known in the oil patch. Whether the hydrates there exhibit more of a chronic release or are susceptible to short-term bulk releases is a subject of debate. More evidence exists for chronic release in the paleo-record, but we also haven't had a precedent in the distant past where the Gas Hydrate Stability Zone (GHSZ) could be so close to the surface (due to very cold Arctic water temps) and be subject to rapid warming. During the PETM, such hydrates would have had to exist at great depths and the subsequent changes in temperature in the GHSZ would've been very slow.

Extremely prominent occlusion process going on with the killer cell that just passed over into Georgia.

Central IN seems like a good area.

So, who's up for chasing this sucker tomorrow?

It's a nice severe sounding, but all crosswise vorticity suggests little tornado threat. I would be mainly worried about wind and some hail.